4 ms·

Just because it's impactful doesn't mean it's going to make much money. Take audiobooks for example, the market is valued at around $5 billion. In the very near

Just because it's impactful doesn't mean it's going to make much money. Take audiobooks for example, the market is valued at around $5 billion. In the very near future audiobooks will be created with AI. Does that mean anybody is making billions with those AI audiobooks? I don't think so. The value of audiobook will go towards $0 and audiobooks as a product category will completely disappear. Audiobooks will simply be the text2speech feature of your eBook reader. Similar stuff will happen with a lot of other content, things that used to be costly will become very cheap. And then what? The amount of books people can consume doesn't scale into infinity. Their entertainment needs will be served by auto-generated AI content. Even the books themselves will be written by AI sooner or later. Advertising industry might also start hurting badly, as while they will certainly try getting ads into AI content, users will have AI at home to filter it out. A lot of classic tricks and dark pattern to manipulate the user behavior will no longer work, since the user has a little AI helper to protect them from those tricks. I don't doubt that the impact of AI will be gigantic, but a lot of AI produced content won't be worth anything, since it's so easy to create for everybody. And there isn't much of a moat either, since new models with better capabilities pop up all the time from different companies. Classic lock-in is also not really usable anymore, as AI can effortlessly translate between different APIs and user-interfaces.

vasco 2y ago
Why would I watch someone else's AI content when I can watch my own with about the same work? It probably takes longer to pick something on Netflix than to shout at my TV to show me some auto-generated on the fly show about whatever I'm feeling like watching right now. Can even be building upon itself "show me yesterday's show but in space and give it some new twists that I don't expect".
- mejutoco 2y ago
  You can share opinions about a common show the next day with another person and bond over it. For example, about a football match.
  - fennecfoxy 2y ago
    The conversation then becomes more about the platform than about specific content. Similar to a game; for many games players aren't intended to have exactly the same experience but there are still common things about the game platform to discuss. I think it would be pretty cool to have a partially AI generated plot, it would be exciting to discuss what you got in the AI lottery with someone else who had also watched the show. Something like: [set plot point] [random catastrophic event] [set plot point] [etc]. "1 character must die in some meaningful way" turns to "omg, which one was killed when you watched? Adam got eaten by the giant spiders in mine" "oh man, Sarah tried to set a spider on fire in mine, but she ended up getting herself". A la https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Until_Dawn https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Until_Dawn
throwaway2037 2y ago
While I agree that most audiobooks will be priced near zero, there will still be a healthy market for highly paid actors to read, like Morgan Freeman. That said, it will be a tiny segment in the market, and many famous people will need to fight/sue AI providers to remove impersonations. I expect those markets will be flooded by fan-created favourites that read like Morgan Freeman.

vasco 2y ago

Why would I watch someone else's AI content when I can watch my own with about the same work? It probably takes longer to pick something on Netflix than to shout at my TV to show me some auto-generated on the fly show about whatever I'm feeling like watching right now. Can even be building upon itself "show me yesterday's show but in space and give it some new twists that I don't expect".

mejutoco 2y ago
You can share opinions about a common show the next day with another person and bond over it. For example, about a football match.
- fennecfoxy 2y ago
  The conversation then becomes more about the platform than about specific content. Similar to a game; for many games players aren't intended to have exactly the same experience but there are still common things about the game platform to discuss. I think it would be pretty cool to have a partially AI generated plot, it would be exciting to discuss what you got in the AI lottery with someone else who had also watched the show. Something like: [set plot point] [random catastrophic event] [set plot point] [etc]. "1 character must die in some meaningful way" turns to "omg, which one was killed when you watched? Adam got eaten by the giant spiders in mine" "oh man, Sarah tried to set a spider on fire in mine, but she ended up getting herself". A la https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Until_Dawn https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Until_Dawn

throwaway2037 2y ago

While I agree that most audiobooks will be priced near zero, there will still be a healthy market for highly paid actors to read, like Morgan Freeman. That said, it will be a tiny segment in the market, and many famous people will need to fight/sue AI providers to remove impersonations. I expect those markets will be flooded by fan-created favourites that read like Morgan Freeman.