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> Such strong speculative predictions about the future, with no evidence. How can anyone be so certain about this? The evidence is all around you. For anyone

by stale2002 2y ago

> Such strong speculative predictions about the future, with no evidence. How can anyone be so certain about this? The evidence is all around you. For anyone who has made any serious attempt to add AI to your current life and work process, you will fairly quickly notice that your productivity has doubled. Now, do I as a random software engineer who is now producing higher quality code, twice as fast, know how to personally capture that value with a company? No. But the value is out there, for someone to capture. > It's like everyone is in the same trance and simply assuming and repeating over and over that This Will Change Everything It already is changing everything, in multiple fields. Go look up what happened to the online art commission market. It got obliterated over a year ago and is replaced by people getting images from midjourney/ect. Furthermore, if you are a software engineer and you haven't included tools like github copilot, or cursor AI into your workflow yet, I simply don't consider you to be a serious engineer anymore. You've fallen behind. And these facts are almost immediately obvious to anyone who has been paying attention in the startup space, at least.

GenerocUsername 2y ago
Ive added "how have you incorperated generative AI into your workflow" as an interview question, and I dont know if it is stigma or actual low adoption, but I have not had a single enthusiastic response across 10+ interviews for senior engineer positions. Meanwhile, I have chatGPT open in background and go from unaware to informed for every new keyword I hear around me all day everyday. Not to mention annotating code, generating utlity functions, and tracing errors
- ilaksh 2y ago
  Would you consider hiring on a contract basis? I use AI tools like Copilot in vim, and have my own agent framework to ask questions or even edit files for me directly, which I have been trying to use more. And I could use a new contract. You can see my email in my HN profile.
- devjab 2y ago
  I think if sort of depends on the work you do. If you’re working on a single language and have been for a while then I imagine that much of the value LLMs might give you already live in your existing automation workflows. I personally like co-pilot but I work across several languages and code bases where I seriously can’t remember how to do basic stuff. In those cases the automatic code generation from co-pilot speeds my efficiency, but it still can’t do anything actually useful aside from making me more productive. I fully expect the tools to become “necessary” in making sure things like JSdoc and other domination is auto-updated when programmers alter something. Hell, if they become good enough at maintaining tests that would be amazing. So far there hasn’t been much improvement over the year we’ve used the tools though. Productivity isn’t even up across teams because too many developers put too much trust into what the LLMs tell them, which means we have far more cleanup to do than we did in the previous couple of years. I think we will handle this thing once we get our change management good enough at teaching people that LLMs aren’t necessarily more trustworthy than SO answers.
- bagels 2y ago
  What, in your mind, is the right answer to that question?
  - GenerocUsername 2y ago
    Good question. The best answer is for someone who has found ways to boost their own productivity, but also understands the caveats such as hallucinations and not pasting proprietary information into text boxes on the internet.
choeger 2y ago
> Furthermore, if you are a software engineer and you haven't included tools like github copilot, or cursor AI into your workflow yet, I simply don't consider you to be a serious engineer anymore. You've fallen behind. That sounds like you're fresh out of college. Copilot is great at scaffolding but doesn't do shit for bug fixing, design, or maintenance. How much scaffolding do you think a senior engineer does per week?
- volkk 2y ago
  depends on what you're working on. i'm a senior engineer currently doing a lot of scaffolding for startups and my copilot saves me a ton of time. life's good.
- mdale 2y ago
  It's getting better and new UIs for it are being tested like Claude and artifacts. Sr. Eng adopted copilot and sung it's praises a lot faster then the jr engineers. Especially when working on codebases with less familiar languages.
- ilaksh 2y ago
  I started teaching myself programming 40 years ago and I believe that Copilot and other AI programming tools are now an essential part of programming. I have my own agent framework which I am using to help complete some tasks automatically. Maybe take a look at tools like aider-chat with Claude 3.5 Sonnet. Or just have a discussion with gpt-4o about any programming area that you aren't particularly familiar with already. Unless you literally decided you learned everything you need and don't try to solve new types of problems or use new (to you) platforms ever..
- stale2002 2y ago
  Nope. 10 years experience working at startups and FAANG. And yes cursor AI/copilot helps with bugs as well. It works because when you have a bug/error message, instead of spending a bunch of time on Google/searching on stack overflow for the exact right answer, you can now do this: "Hey AI. Here is my error message and stack trace. What part of the code could be causing it, and how should I fix it". Even for debugging this is a massive speed up. You can also ask the AI to just evaluate your code. Or explain it when you are trying to understand a new code base. Or lint it or format it. Or you can ask how it can be simplified or refactored or improved. And every hour that you save not having to track down crazy bugs that might just be immediately solvable, is an hour that you can spend doing something else. And that is without even getting into agents. I haven't figured out yet how to effectively use those yet, and even that is making me nervous/worried that I am missing some huge possible gains. But sure, I'll agree that of all you are doing is making scaffolding, that is a fairly simply usecase.
beambot 2y ago
Very true! From where I sit, most of the hype cycles were overestimated in the short term & underestimated in the long term: world wide web, mobile, big data, autonomous cars, AI, quantum, biotech, fintech, clean tech, space and even crypto.
- c-cube 2y ago
  It's a bit weird to claim that "quantum", autonomous cars, and crypto are "underestimated". If anything they've been overhyped and totally failed to deliver actual value.
  - beambot 2y ago
    Underestimated in the long term. It's become clear that the time constant for deep-tech innovation & adoption doesn't match the classic VC-backed SaaS adoption curve. We're nearing general quantum supremacy for practical jobs within the next 5 years. Autonomous cars are now rolling out in select geographies without safety drivers. And crypto is literally being pushed as an alternative for SWIFT among the BRICS, IMF, and BIS as a multi-national CBDC via the mBridge program.
rty32 2y ago
Twice as fast is way over exaggerating the reality. In certain cases, sure, but more generally you are looking at 10%-50% productivity increase, more likely on the lower end. I say this as someone who has access to ChatGPT and AI code completion tools and use them every day, and the numbers are backed up by Google's study. https://research.google/blog/ai-in-software-engineering-at-google-progress-and-the-path-ahead/ https://research.google/blog/ai-in-software-engineering-at-g...
americanvirtual 2y ago
Yeah some expert I work in the field type YouTubers I remember well over 7 months ago now kept saying that we're going to have AGI within 7 months. He was like the big prediction hinging practically his whole channel on... Sorry I don't have the name but there's a little anecdote.

GenerocUsername 2y ago

Ive added "how have you incorperated generative AI into your workflow" as an interview question, and I dont know if it is stigma or actual low adoption, but I have not had a single enthusiastic response across 10+ interviews for senior engineer positions. Meanwhile, I have chatGPT open in background and go from unaware to informed for every new keyword I hear around me all day everyday. Not to mention annotating code, generating utlity functions, and tracing errors

ilaksh 2y ago
Would you consider hiring on a contract basis? I use AI tools like Copilot in vim, and have my own agent framework to ask questions or even edit files for me directly, which I have been trying to use more. And I could use a new contract. You can see my email in my HN profile.
devjab 2y ago
I think if sort of depends on the work you do. If you’re working on a single language and have been for a while then I imagine that much of the value LLMs might give you already live in your existing automation workflows. I personally like co-pilot but I work across several languages and code bases where I seriously can’t remember how to do basic stuff. In those cases the automatic code generation from co-pilot speeds my efficiency, but it still can’t do anything actually useful aside from making me more productive. I fully expect the tools to become “necessary” in making sure things like JSdoc and other domination is auto-updated when programmers alter something. Hell, if they become good enough at maintaining tests that would be amazing. So far there hasn’t been much improvement over the year we’ve used the tools though. Productivity isn’t even up across teams because too many developers put too much trust into what the LLMs tell them, which means we have far more cleanup to do than we did in the previous couple of years. I think we will handle this thing once we get our change management good enough at teaching people that LLMs aren’t necessarily more trustworthy than SO answers.
bagels 2y ago
What, in your mind, is the right answer to that question?
- GenerocUsername 2y ago
  Good question. The best answer is for someone who has found ways to boost their own productivity, but also understands the caveats such as hallucinations and not pasting proprietary information into text boxes on the internet.

choeger 2y ago

> Furthermore, if you are a software engineer and you haven't included tools like github copilot, or cursor AI into your workflow yet, I simply don't consider you to be a serious engineer anymore. You've fallen behind. That sounds like you're fresh out of college. Copilot is great at scaffolding but doesn't do shit for bug fixing, design, or maintenance. How much scaffolding do you think a senior engineer does per week?

volkk 2y ago
depends on what you're working on. i'm a senior engineer currently doing a lot of scaffolding for startups and my copilot saves me a ton of time. life's good.
mdale 2y ago
It's getting better and new UIs for it are being tested like Claude and artifacts. Sr. Eng adopted copilot and sung it's praises a lot faster then the jr engineers. Especially when working on codebases with less familiar languages.
ilaksh 2y ago
I started teaching myself programming 40 years ago and I believe that Copilot and other AI programming tools are now an essential part of programming. I have my own agent framework which I am using to help complete some tasks automatically. Maybe take a look at tools like aider-chat with Claude 3.5 Sonnet. Or just have a discussion with gpt-4o about any programming area that you aren't particularly familiar with already. Unless you literally decided you learned everything you need and don't try to solve new types of problems or use new (to you) platforms ever..
stale2002 2y ago
Nope. 10 years experience working at startups and FAANG. And yes cursor AI/copilot helps with bugs as well. It works because when you have a bug/error message, instead of spending a bunch of time on Google/searching on stack overflow for the exact right answer, you can now do this: "Hey AI. Here is my error message and stack trace. What part of the code could be causing it, and how should I fix it". Even for debugging this is a massive speed up. You can also ask the AI to just evaluate your code. Or explain it when you are trying to understand a new code base. Or lint it or format it. Or you can ask how it can be simplified or refactored or improved. And every hour that you save not having to track down crazy bugs that might just be immediately solvable, is an hour that you can spend doing something else. And that is without even getting into agents. I haven't figured out yet how to effectively use those yet, and even that is making me nervous/worried that I am missing some huge possible gains. But sure, I'll agree that of all you are doing is making scaffolding, that is a fairly simply usecase.

beambot 2y ago

Very true! From where I sit, most of the hype cycles were overestimated in the short term & underestimated in the long term: world wide web, mobile, big data, autonomous cars, AI, quantum, biotech, fintech, clean tech, space and even crypto.

c-cube 2y ago
It's a bit weird to claim that "quantum", autonomous cars, and crypto are "underestimated". If anything they've been overhyped and totally failed to deliver actual value.
- beambot 2y ago
  Underestimated in the long term. It's become clear that the time constant for deep-tech innovation & adoption doesn't match the classic VC-backed SaaS adoption curve. We're nearing general quantum supremacy for practical jobs within the next 5 years. Autonomous cars are now rolling out in select geographies without safety drivers. And crypto is literally being pushed as an alternative for SWIFT among the BRICS, IMF, and BIS as a multi-national CBDC via the mBridge program.

rty32 2y ago

Twice as fast is way over exaggerating the reality. In certain cases, sure, but more generally you are looking at 10%-50% productivity increase, more likely on the lower end. I say this as someone who has access to ChatGPT and AI code completion tools and use them every day, and the numbers are backed up by Google's study. https://research.google/blog/ai-in-software-engineering-at-google-progress-and-the-path-ahead/ https://research.google/blog/ai-in-software-engineering-at-g...

americanvirtual 2y ago

Yeah some expert I work in the field type YouTubers I remember well over 7 months ago now kept saying that we're going to have AGI within 7 months. He was like the big prediction hinging practically his whole channel on... Sorry I don't have the name but there's a little anecdote.