9 ms·

US Allies Allege China Is Developing Attack Drones for Russia

24 points by xqcgrek2 2y ago

tw04 2y ago
https://archive.is/dhVus https://archive.is/dhVus
tw04 2y ago
I fear Europe is going to repeat the failures of WW2 thinking they can appease a dictator. If China is truly going to start supplying mass amounts of drones to Russia, it will result in a collapse of Ukraine, and an eventual Russian push even further west. Or full-blown WW3.
- postalrat 2y ago
  And what do you recommend? Start ww3 before Russia does?
  - justinclift 2y ago
    Something like stuxnet? ;)
  - chipdart 2y ago
    > And what do you recommend? Start ww3 before Russia does? I'm not sure if you noticed that Russia already started WW3 if it's path of escalation doesn't stop with a clear defeat of its invasion of Ukraine. Even their talking heads have been openly talking about WW3 for over a year. They have been threatening the Baltics with an annexation and pretty much the entire western Europe with nuclear annihilation. They aren't exactly shy in voicing their plans, where they were counting in their 3-day invasion of Ukraine to be the catalyst for western Europe in particular and NATO in general to simply fold and accept the annexation by Russia of countries right up to Poland. If you were a historian in a century from now, how would you describe Russia's antics? One of the key propaganda pieces of Russia in this war is how "the west" is forcing Ukrainians to die by giving them the necessary means to resist and oppose Russia's invasion and genocide of Ukraine. Flipping this over, it reads as if they know the strategy of de escalation followed by "the west" is to turn Russia's 3-day invasion into a long drawn-out unsustainable war of attrition, designed to decimate Russia's armed forces and eliminate their ability to even consider the prospects of a war of aggression in decades to come. In the meantime, Europe is also ramping up it's defense sector just in case Ukraine doesn't hold.
    - caustic-view 2y ago
      [flagged]
  - Log_out_ 2y ago
    stop pretending russia hasn't started it already.
    - caustic-view 2y ago
      [flagged]
  - bdjsiqoocwk 2y ago
    Hello? Russia already started WW3. The media just hasn't reported it as such, because world wars are complex things.
    - jasonvorhe 2y ago
      Wasn't there something going on in Ukraine in 2014? I remember a certain leaked phone call[0] suggesting heavy US involvement in the country after the change in government happened rather abruptly[1] and by looking closely at what happened during the escalation of violence during the Maidan protests[2], it leaves a different impression than what I can read in most newspapers. [0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JoW75J5bnnE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JoW75J5bnnE [1] https://www.voltairenet.org/article182308.html#nh1 https://www.voltairenet.org/article182308.html#nh1 [2] https://consortiumnews.com/2019/04/22/the-buried-maidan-massacre-and-its-misrepresentation-by-the-west/ https://consortiumnews.com/2019/04/22/the-buried-maidan-mass...
      - blue_pants 2y ago
        TLDR from the provided links [0][1]: Nuland and Pyatt are not talking about replacing Yanukovych as president, they are referring to who would become prime minister. How do we know this? Well, for one thing, on Feb. 21st, 2014, the U.S. and E.U. managed to broker a deal between Yanukovych and the opposition (one which Yanukovych himself advanced) in which Yanukovych would continue as president (alongside a new prime minister chosen from the opposition) until new elections were held in December, a full ten months from that point. The deal never came into effect. Why? Because immediately after signing, Yanukovych hightailed out of Kyiv. [0] https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1761873996675682423.html https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1761873996675682423.html [1] https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1573307576959512576.html https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1573307576959512576.html (be warned author uses pejorative language, which is a shame)
        DiogenesKynikos 2y ago
        Yanukovych "hightailed out of Kiev" because armed protesters broke the agreement and stormed the government buildings.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- hackandthink 2y ago
  Your fear has a name: Perpetual Munich Syndrome https://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2014/05/a-treatment-for-pms-perpetual-munich-syndrome.html https://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2014/05/a-treatment-...
tamimio 2y ago
China is primarily after the money, because thousands of Chinese drones are also used by Ukraine, the small FPV ones.
- mfkp 2y ago
  Small consumer drones being purchased from DJI is very different from the Chinese government developing Shahed attack drones...
  - maxglute 2y ago
    It's likely not the Chinese government. It's likely some commercial PRC company that's not likely even part of PLA procurement chain trying to war profiteer / make a buck. IMO "allegation" goal to reporting is to pressure PRC to limit non government/PLA commercial activities that could assist RU. You can go through some of Cobtech (drone maker) catalogue here (https://beijingcbtoptics.en.alibaba.com/ https://beijingcbtoptics.en.alibaba.com/), I've never seen any of their stuff in formal PLA aquisitions (which I follow closely). They look to be some generic imaging/optics company that sold OEM commercial products, for civilian use until they started making bank during UKR war and thought it was profitable idea to expand into cloning shaheds after realizing it would be pretty trivial to put together a shahed tier drone with PRC supply chains (which Shahed already uses). US sanctions said company, now said company is likely going to start selling to RU who just became biggest customer. Western MSM try to spin it as "China" formally assisting RU, but it's just PRC not inhibiting commercial activities even if it fuels RU war machine, because PRC producers aren't going to not profit when everyone else is. Especially if RU was paying comical 200k-300k for for a 10k drone made in Iran that PRC can probably make for 5k. TBH this reads as a company much less sophisticated than DJI getting into the much more technologically accessible ghetto drone powered by moped category. They probably planned to sell a bunch of non-lethal airframes, which RU would then fit with warheads because realistically the only use for a 8ft prop drone with 2000km range is to bomb stuff. Much harder to argue for dual use unlike machine tools or small DJI drones. Along with company selling range of optics, which they can at least dodge by saying it was for sports hunting / recreational / civlian use. But no one hunts deer with a 2000km loitering munition. If PRC/PLA wanted to help RU, they'd just send over formally inducted PLA hardware/suprlus from official MIC manufacturers, which they would probably love to have validated on the battlefield.
maxglute 2y ago
Drone is Sunflower 200, aka improved Shahed136 clone, shown late last year, from Cobtech Ltd aka Beijing Zongshang Dingsheng who got sanctioned by US BIS at end of May. Lighter frame, can be vertically launched without rocket assistence basically anywhere. No sign of UKR battlefield use until then, at least no lethal models (ISR variants exist), but post sanctions they're likely going to start selling to RU now. Curious to see price points / scale of how much PRC industry can churn out improved Shaheds. Probably less than the 10k USD it cost for Iran. Would be verified game changer if 2nd/3rd rate PRC MIC company can spam 4-5 digits of 2500km (basically all of 1st island chain) moped piston drones per month.
bdjsiqoocwk 2y ago
China's greatest fear must be that one day Russia wakes up and realize they're western, not asian.
- jasonvorhe 2y ago
  [flagged]
  - calf 2y ago
    This is a obscure to me but people like Finkelstein and Chomsky point out the aftermath of WWII, where Russia was excluded by the other Western countries from the spoils of war and so forth, was a critical juncture that set back Russia's normal development. I don't know the details but it's an important question to ask, because much of the foundational disagreements between people with different political views on this (as you can see in this thread) depend on what one thinks is the historical context, which side was more the underdog, and who has power today, etc.
    - chipdart 2y ago
      > This is a obscure to me but people like Finkelstein and Chomsky point out the aftermath of WWII, where Russia was excluded by the other Western countries from the spoils of war and so forth, was a critical juncture that set back Russia's normal development. Facts like the Berlin blockade refute this hypothesis. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berlin_Blockade https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berlin_Blockade The problem with these anti-west talking heads is that they base their beliefs on this idea of infantilizing each and every antagonist of "the west" whereas "the west" is bounded to a behavior akin to sainthood where all issues are due to not enough penance and self-sacrifice. I mean, the Soviet Union right after WW2 was engaged relentlessly in decades of imperialism targeting east Europe and involved in ethnic cleansing and genocide, with tanks rolling in randomly, and the conclusion of these anti-west talking heads is that "the west" wasn't being cozy enough?
      - protomolecule 2y ago

24 points by xqcgrek2 2y ago

tw04 2y ago

https://archive.is/dhVus https://archive.is/dhVus

tw04 2y ago

I fear Europe is going to repeat the failures of WW2 thinking they can appease a dictator. If China is truly going to start supplying mass amounts of drones to Russia, it will result in a collapse of Ukraine, and an eventual Russian push even further west. Or full-blown WW3.

postalrat 2y ago
And what do you recommend? Start ww3 before Russia does?
- justinclift 2y ago
  Something like stuxnet? ;)
- chipdart 2y ago
  > And what do you recommend? Start ww3 before Russia does? I'm not sure if you noticed that Russia already started WW3 if it's path of escalation doesn't stop with a clear defeat of its invasion of Ukraine. Even their talking heads have been openly talking about WW3 for over a year. They have been threatening the Baltics with an annexation and pretty much the entire western Europe with nuclear annihilation. They aren't exactly shy in voicing their plans, where they were counting in their 3-day invasion of Ukraine to be the catalyst for western Europe in particular and NATO in general to simply fold and accept the annexation by Russia of countries right up to Poland. If you were a historian in a century from now, how would you describe Russia's antics? One of the key propaganda pieces of Russia in this war is how "the west" is forcing Ukrainians to die by giving them the necessary means to resist and oppose Russia's invasion and genocide of Ukraine. Flipping this over, it reads as if they know the strategy of de escalation followed by "the west" is to turn Russia's 3-day invasion into a long drawn-out unsustainable war of attrition, designed to decimate Russia's armed forces and eliminate their ability to even consider the prospects of a war of aggression in decades to come. In the meantime, Europe is also ramping up it's defense sector just in case Ukraine doesn't hold.
  - caustic-view 2y ago
    [flagged]
- Log_out_ 2y ago
  stop pretending russia hasn't started it already.
  - caustic-view 2y ago
    [flagged]
- bdjsiqoocwk 2y ago
  Hello? Russia already started WW3. The media just hasn't reported it as such, because world wars are complex things.
  - jasonvorhe 2y ago
    Wasn't there something going on in Ukraine in 2014? I remember a certain leaked phone call[0] suggesting heavy US involvement in the country after the change in government happened rather abruptly[1] and by looking closely at what happened during the escalation of violence during the Maidan protests[2], it leaves a different impression than what I can read in most newspapers. [0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JoW75J5bnnE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JoW75J5bnnE [1] https://www.voltairenet.org/article182308.html#nh1 https://www.voltairenet.org/article182308.html#nh1 [2] https://consortiumnews.com/2019/04/22/the-buried-maidan-massacre-and-its-misrepresentation-by-the-west/ https://consortiumnews.com/2019/04/22/the-buried-maidan-mass...
    - blue_pants 2y ago
      TLDR from the provided links [0][1]: Nuland and Pyatt are not talking about replacing Yanukovych as president, they are referring to who would become prime minister. How do we know this? Well, for one thing, on Feb. 21st, 2014, the U.S. and E.U. managed to broker a deal between Yanukovych and the opposition (one which Yanukovych himself advanced) in which Yanukovych would continue as president (alongside a new prime minister chosen from the opposition) until new elections were held in December, a full ten months from that point. The deal never came into effect. Why? Because immediately after signing, Yanukovych hightailed out of Kyiv. [0] https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1761873996675682423.html https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1761873996675682423.html [1] https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1573307576959512576.html https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1573307576959512576.html (be warned author uses pejorative language, which is a shame)
      - DiogenesKynikos 2y ago
        Yanukovych "hightailed out of Kiev" because armed protesters broke the agreement and stormed the government buildings.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
hackandthink 2y ago
Your fear has a name: Perpetual Munich Syndrome https://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2014/05/a-treatment-for-pms-perpetual-munich-syndrome.html https://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2014/05/a-treatment-...

tamimio 2y ago

China is primarily after the money, because thousands of Chinese drones are also used by Ukraine, the small FPV ones.

mfkp 2y ago
Small consumer drones being purchased from DJI is very different from the Chinese government developing Shahed attack drones...
- maxglute 2y ago
  It's likely not the Chinese government. It's likely some commercial PRC company that's not likely even part of PLA procurement chain trying to war profiteer / make a buck. IMO "allegation" goal to reporting is to pressure PRC to limit non government/PLA commercial activities that could assist RU. You can go through some of Cobtech (drone maker) catalogue here (https://beijingcbtoptics.en.alibaba.com/ https://beijingcbtoptics.en.alibaba.com/), I've never seen any of their stuff in formal PLA aquisitions (which I follow closely). They look to be some generic imaging/optics company that sold OEM commercial products, for civilian use until they started making bank during UKR war and thought it was profitable idea to expand into cloning shaheds after realizing it would be pretty trivial to put together a shahed tier drone with PRC supply chains (which Shahed already uses). US sanctions said company, now said company is likely going to start selling to RU who just became biggest customer. Western MSM try to spin it as "China" formally assisting RU, but it's just PRC not inhibiting commercial activities even if it fuels RU war machine, because PRC producers aren't going to not profit when everyone else is. Especially if RU was paying comical 200k-300k for for a 10k drone made in Iran that PRC can probably make for 5k. TBH this reads as a company much less sophisticated than DJI getting into the much more technologically accessible ghetto drone powered by moped category. They probably planned to sell a bunch of non-lethal airframes, which RU would then fit with warheads because realistically the only use for a 8ft prop drone with 2000km range is to bomb stuff. Much harder to argue for dual use unlike machine tools or small DJI drones. Along with company selling range of optics, which they can at least dodge by saying it was for sports hunting / recreational / civlian use. But no one hunts deer with a 2000km loitering munition. If PRC/PLA wanted to help RU, they'd just send over formally inducted PLA hardware/suprlus from official MIC manufacturers, which they would probably love to have validated on the battlefield.

maxglute 2y ago

Drone is Sunflower 200, aka improved Shahed136 clone, shown late last year, from Cobtech Ltd aka Beijing Zongshang Dingsheng who got sanctioned by US BIS at end of May. Lighter frame, can be vertically launched without rocket assistence basically anywhere. No sign of UKR battlefield use until then, at least no lethal models (ISR variants exist), but post sanctions they're likely going to start selling to RU now. Curious to see price points / scale of how much PRC industry can churn out improved Shaheds. Probably less than the 10k USD it cost for Iran. Would be verified game changer if 2nd/3rd rate PRC MIC company can spam 4-5 digits of 2500km (basically all of 1st island chain) moped piston drones per month.

bdjsiqoocwk 2y ago

China's greatest fear must be that one day Russia wakes up and realize they're western, not asian.

jasonvorhe 2y ago
[flagged]
- calf 2y ago
  This is a obscure to me but people like Finkelstein and Chomsky point out the aftermath of WWII, where Russia was excluded by the other Western countries from the spoils of war and so forth, was a critical juncture that set back Russia's normal development. I don't know the details but it's an important question to ask, because much of the foundational disagreements between people with different political views on this (as you can see in this thread) depend on what one thinks is the historical context, which side was more the underdog, and who has power today, etc.
  - chipdart 2y ago
    > This is a obscure to me but people like Finkelstein and Chomsky point out the aftermath of WWII, where Russia was excluded by the other Western countries from the spoils of war and so forth, was a critical juncture that set back Russia's normal development. Facts like the Berlin blockade refute this hypothesis. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berlin_Blockade https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berlin_Blockade The problem with these anti-west talking heads is that they base their beliefs on this idea of infantilizing each and every antagonist of "the west" whereas "the west" is bounded to a behavior akin to sainthood where all issues are due to not enough penance and self-sacrifice. I mean, the Soviet Union right after WW2 was engaged relentlessly in decades of imperialism targeting east Europe and involved in ethnic cleansing and genocide, with tanks rolling in randomly, and the conclusion of these anti-west talking heads is that "the west" wasn't being cozy enough?
    - protomolecule 2y ago