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I object. I think our Media is a great disappointment. We’ve spent 20 years in the Middle East, but the general public didn’t learn anything, The idea of loc

I object. I think our Media is a great disappointment. We’ve spent 20 years in the Middle East, but the general public didn’t learn anything, The idea of local culture is as uninformed as it was at the start of the war. As a result we will make the same mistake again. The reporting about war in Ukraine is the same - basically a caricature of reality. Sidenote: population of Texas and population of Siberia is about the same. Russia has a cruel culture, but their population is only 1/4 of EU’s. Articles that ask probing questions are only now starting to appear, but are extremely rare. For example: “Russia is producing artillery shells around three times faster than Ukraine's Western allies and for about a quarter of the cost” https://news.sky.com/story/russia-is-producing-artillery-shells-around-three-times-faster-than-ukraines-western-allies-and-for-about-a-quarter-of-the-cost-13143224 https://news.sky.com/story/russia-is-producing-artillery-she...

nradov 2y ago
Yes, NATO countries have hollowed out their military-industrial complexes. Everyone is aware now that was a mistake but it will take time to rebuild the industrial capacity necessary to fight wars of attrition. And of course it's cheaper to manufacture artillery shells in Russia since the country has lower wages and is now running a partially mobilized command economy. But once you normalize for quality of the shells, the difference isn't quite as bad as it first looks.
- bell-cot 2y ago
  > isn't quite as bad That phrase sounds about right. Though my impression is that shell production is still a "meh, I guess we probably should do something..." priority in the great majority of NATO countries.
- Sakos 2y ago
  > The research on artillery rounds by Bain & Company, which drew on publicly available information, found that Russian factories were forecast to manufacture or refurbish about 4.5 million artillery shells this year compared with a combined production of about 1.3 million rounds across European nations and the US. Rheinmetall intends to increase their annual production to 750k by 2025 and the US is aiming for 1 million annually by 2025. That's still much less than Russia and that's before considering they have access to the significant reserves and the factories in North Korea. > Since August, Pyongyang has shipped about 6,700 containers to Russia, which could accommodate more than 3 million rounds of artillery shells or more than 500,000 rounds for multiple rocket launchers, according to the South Korean Defense Ministry. https://news.sky.com/story/russia-is-producing-artillery-shells-around-three-times-faster-than-ukraines-western-allies-and-for-about-a-quarter-of-the-cost-13143224 https://news.sky.com/story/russia-is-producing-artillery-she... https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/07/asia/north-korea-artillery-exercise-seoul-threat-intl-hnk-ml/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/07/asia/north-korea-artiller... https://www.rheinmetall.com/en/media/news-watch/news/2024/02/2024-02-12-rheinmetall-builds-new-ammunition-factory-in-unterluess-ground-breaking-ceremony-with-chancellor-scholz https://www.rheinmetall.com/en/media/news-watch/news/2024/02... https://www.army.mil/article/274905/munitions_for_ukraine_observations_and_recommendations https://www.army.mil/article/274905/munitions_for_ukraine_ob...
  - bluGill 2y ago
    NATO war doctrine doesn't use nearly as much artillery as Soviet (Russian)- preferring air superiority and bombs/missiles instead. While it isn't clear this is really better (and I hope we never find out), it does mean that having less production ability may not be an issue. Which is why the US Air force is the largest air force in the world, followed by US army, then US navy at 4, and US Marines at 7. Where the problem is, is Ukraine is trained on the Soviet war doctrine but are getting backing from NATO - but without all the airplanes NATO would use (and it isn't clear if they could train pilots/crew fast enough if given, but they haven't been given much) they need something to fight with.
    - ClumsyPilot 2y ago
      How much does that change or Is it just copium? Are we able to produce millions of air to ground missiles if we cannot produce enough simple artillery shells? Can we replace losses of aircraft in a timely manner?
      - frostburg 2y ago
        You cannot seriously think that you need 1:1 parity missile-to-shell in that paradigm. The overall result from the conflict is that the soviet doctrine underperfomed, with especially abysmal results for the IADS part of it.
        bluGill 2y ago
        Ukraine is doing well using mostly the soviet doctrine so long as they are 1:5 ratio of artillery with Russia, when they are worse than they they start to lose ground, when more they gain ground.
        ClumsyPilot 2y ago
        > You cannot seriously think that you need 1:1 parity missile-to-shell in that paradigm. this argument would work if we could produce missiles in 1:1 parity with shells. However, for any reasonable ratio (say 1 missile for 10 shells) the situations with missiles is even worse! British government has ordered more NLAWs, and they will take 2 years to deliver. > soviet doctrine underperfomed That's exactly the scary part - Russian military is a mess, and even in these conditions our military industrial complex is barely holding it together. Mind you we spend 10x what Russia spends. NLAW costs more than a Tesla, takes longer to produce than a Tesla, and uses 90's technology. There is huge graft in the military complex! Now what will happen if there is a conflict with an opponent that is competent, and is able to outproduce Russia 5 to 1? It will end in massive humiliation.

nradov 2y ago

Yes, NATO countries have hollowed out their military-industrial complexes. Everyone is aware now that was a mistake but it will take time to rebuild the industrial capacity necessary to fight wars of attrition. And of course it's cheaper to manufacture artillery shells in Russia since the country has lower wages and is now running a partially mobilized command economy. But once you normalize for quality of the shells, the difference isn't quite as bad as it first looks.

bell-cot 2y ago
> isn't quite as bad That phrase sounds about right. Though my impression is that shell production is still a "meh, I guess we probably should do something..." priority in the great majority of NATO countries.
Sakos 2y ago
> The research on artillery rounds by Bain & Company, which drew on publicly available information, found that Russian factories were forecast to manufacture or refurbish about 4.5 million artillery shells this year compared with a combined production of about 1.3 million rounds across European nations and the US. Rheinmetall intends to increase their annual production to 750k by 2025 and the US is aiming for 1 million annually by 2025. That's still much less than Russia and that's before considering they have access to the significant reserves and the factories in North Korea. > Since August, Pyongyang has shipped about 6,700 containers to Russia, which could accommodate more than 3 million rounds of artillery shells or more than 500,000 rounds for multiple rocket launchers, according to the South Korean Defense Ministry. https://news.sky.com/story/russia-is-producing-artillery-shells-around-three-times-faster-than-ukraines-western-allies-and-for-about-a-quarter-of-the-cost-13143224 https://news.sky.com/story/russia-is-producing-artillery-she... https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/07/asia/north-korea-artillery-exercise-seoul-threat-intl-hnk-ml/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/07/asia/north-korea-artiller... https://www.rheinmetall.com/en/media/news-watch/news/2024/02/2024-02-12-rheinmetall-builds-new-ammunition-factory-in-unterluess-ground-breaking-ceremony-with-chancellor-scholz https://www.rheinmetall.com/en/media/news-watch/news/2024/02... https://www.army.mil/article/274905/munitions_for_ukraine_observations_and_recommendations https://www.army.mil/article/274905/munitions_for_ukraine_ob...
- bluGill 2y ago
  NATO war doctrine doesn't use nearly as much artillery as Soviet (Russian)- preferring air superiority and bombs/missiles instead. While it isn't clear this is really better (and I hope we never find out), it does mean that having less production ability may not be an issue. Which is why the US Air force is the largest air force in the world, followed by US army, then US navy at 4, and US Marines at 7. Where the problem is, is Ukraine is trained on the Soviet war doctrine but are getting backing from NATO - but without all the airplanes NATO would use (and it isn't clear if they could train pilots/crew fast enough if given, but they haven't been given much) they need something to fight with.
  - ClumsyPilot 2y ago
    How much does that change or Is it just copium? Are we able to produce millions of air to ground missiles if we cannot produce enough simple artillery shells? Can we replace losses of aircraft in a timely manner?
    - frostburg 2y ago
      You cannot seriously think that you need 1:1 parity missile-to-shell in that paradigm. The overall result from the conflict is that the soviet doctrine underperfomed, with especially abysmal results for the IADS part of it.
      - bluGill 2y ago
        Ukraine is doing well using mostly the soviet doctrine so long as they are 1:5 ratio of artillery with Russia, when they are worse than they they start to lose ground, when more they gain ground.
      - ClumsyPilot 2y ago
        > You cannot seriously think that you need 1:1 parity missile-to-shell in that paradigm. this argument would work if we could produce missiles in 1:1 parity with shells. However, for any reasonable ratio (say 1 missile for 10 shells) the situations with missiles is even worse! British government has ordered more NLAWs, and they will take 2 years to deliver. > soviet doctrine underperfomed That's exactly the scary part - Russian military is a mess, and even in these conditions our military industrial complex is barely holding it together. Mind you we spend 10x what Russia spends. NLAW costs more than a Tesla, takes longer to produce than a Tesla, and uses 90's technology. There is huge graft in the military complex! Now what will happen if there is a conflict with an opponent that is competent, and is able to outproduce Russia 5 to 1? It will end in massive humiliation.