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> But lithium ion battery costs will keep falling I question whether increased demand for grid scale batteries will create so much demand that lithium won't dr

> But lithium ion battery costs will keep falling I question whether increased demand for grid scale batteries will create so much demand that lithium won't drop significantly any time soon. I certainly hope i'm wrong.

energy123 2y ago
The opposite may happen. Batteries follow a learning curve where the price drops exponentially in volume. High demand means a larger industry which means more scale benefits and cheaper prices. Solar panels could be a comparison. Demand has been growing exponentially but this has actually pushed prices down because this demand drive the learning curve.
- lucianbr 2y ago
  Or maybe the prices are being pushed down by the chinese government? I remember reading some news about how european governments are upset over this. In general, I wonder how much do we really know when we talk about cause and effect in economics. We see prices going down. We attribute it to something. But without experiments, how can we be sure?
  - energy123 2y ago
    We see it in other goods like lightbulbs. Economies of scale is understood. The learning curve for solar/batteries has been stable for almost 50 years. A small part of the price declines is due to subsidies from the Chinese government but I don't believe it's the best explanation for the 97% price drop. But if you can answer the question "how much would batteries go up in price next year if China removed subsidies", I'd genuinely like to know the answer to that because it is important. One risk is a war between the US and China, regardless of the subsidy question. So we should get good at domestic alternatives like compressed air and pumped hydro, and work towards our own manufacturing of batteries.
  - bobthepanda 2y ago
    While that’s happening, we don’t for example see the Chinese pushing down the prices of nuclear in the same fashion, so it isn’t just that.
dalyons 2y ago
Grid storage is somewhat close to moving away from lithium. Sodium ion and iron batteries are in production and ramping up

energy123 2y ago

The opposite may happen. Batteries follow a learning curve where the price drops exponentially in volume. High demand means a larger industry which means more scale benefits and cheaper prices. Solar panels could be a comparison. Demand has been growing exponentially but this has actually pushed prices down because this demand drive the learning curve.

lucianbr 2y ago
Or maybe the prices are being pushed down by the chinese government? I remember reading some news about how european governments are upset over this. In general, I wonder how much do we really know when we talk about cause and effect in economics. We see prices going down. We attribute it to something. But without experiments, how can we be sure?
- energy123 2y ago
  We see it in other goods like lightbulbs. Economies of scale is understood. The learning curve for solar/batteries has been stable for almost 50 years. A small part of the price declines is due to subsidies from the Chinese government but I don't believe it's the best explanation for the 97% price drop. But if you can answer the question "how much would batteries go up in price next year if China removed subsidies", I'd genuinely like to know the answer to that because it is important. One risk is a war between the US and China, regardless of the subsidy question. So we should get good at domestic alternatives like compressed air and pumped hydro, and work towards our own manufacturing of batteries.
- bobthepanda 2y ago
  While that’s happening, we don’t for example see the Chinese pushing down the prices of nuclear in the same fashion, so it isn’t just that.

dalyons 2y ago

Grid storage is somewhat close to moving away from lithium. Sodium ion and iron batteries are in production and ramping up