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I'm hardly an investment expert, but I wouldn't expect anything to change on the market unless people are actually cancelling orders en masse. If I'm recalling

I'm hardly an investment expert, but I wouldn't expect anything to change on the market unless people are actually cancelling orders en masse. If I'm recalling correctly, they're basically already booked solid for the next decade or so. That leaves a lot of time for them to worry about booking new sales before it becomes an issue. I couldn't find an easy answer to whether or not that's already happened, though (order cancellations out of the norm).

bitmasher9 2y ago
It’s not that simple. Boeing could be forced to pay a settlement, or retrofit sold airplanes, or make modifications to their manufacturing process that raise their costs, or key executives could resign, or their negotiation of far future deals could suffer, etc etc. Boeings future isn’t boolean.
- floating-io 2y ago
  I never said it was, but in the context of this issue's specific impact, it seems pretty straightforward to me. None of the things you mentioned have been even hinted at to my knowledge beyond mere speculation. They also probably won't affect the bottom line much in the long run even if they do happen; some level of unforeseen circumstance mitigation is almost certainly already factored into their business plan. Not to mention the effects of various insurance policies they may or may not have. Possibility won't move the stock much; probability will. As it stands, it appears that the most likely outcome is that they'll skate, so no movement. The only other potential to tank it that I see is order cancellations because the aircraft ceases to be viable for the buyers. For most of them, it'll have blown over well before the delivery date anyway, and if it was going to happen, it probably would have by now. Therefore, nothing to see here... until the next mishap, anyway.
MBCook 2y ago
Airbus has big backlogs too. So even if a major carrier wanted to drop a bunch of Boeing orders and switch they can’t get planes any faster. They’ll go at the end of the line and wait even longer. And that ignores new training for maintenance teams and pilots and everyone else who would need it. It’s a duopoly with reservations far into the future. Airlines don’t have much choice. Maybe they’ll switch future orders from a 787-Z to the 797-Q because they don’t trust the former, but to switch to Airbus would be a very long process.
- teractiveodular 2y ago
  COMAC has entered the chat Although the C919 (B737/A320 clone) is not feasible even in theory anywhere outside China until various regulators approve it, and in the double-aisle market the C929 is a long, long way off.
- CuriousCosmic 2y ago
  It'd be nice to see Dassault try to bring back the Mercure. It was a pretty solid plane designed to compete with the 737 but it just never managed to break out of France due to the economy in the 80s and Boeing & Airbus' comparative success. Dassault is still a major producer of business jets and military fighter jets so it's certainly not like they don't have the skills or capability.

bitmasher9 2y ago

It’s not that simple. Boeing could be forced to pay a settlement, or retrofit sold airplanes, or make modifications to their manufacturing process that raise their costs, or key executives could resign, or their negotiation of far future deals could suffer, etc etc. Boeings future isn’t boolean.

floating-io 2y ago
I never said it was, but in the context of this issue's specific impact, it seems pretty straightforward to me. None of the things you mentioned have been even hinted at to my knowledge beyond mere speculation. They also probably won't affect the bottom line much in the long run even if they do happen; some level of unforeseen circumstance mitigation is almost certainly already factored into their business plan. Not to mention the effects of various insurance policies they may or may not have. Possibility won't move the stock much; probability will. As it stands, it appears that the most likely outcome is that they'll skate, so no movement. The only other potential to tank it that I see is order cancellations because the aircraft ceases to be viable for the buyers. For most of them, it'll have blown over well before the delivery date anyway, and if it was going to happen, it probably would have by now. Therefore, nothing to see here... until the next mishap, anyway.

MBCook 2y ago

Airbus has big backlogs too. So even if a major carrier wanted to drop a bunch of Boeing orders and switch they can’t get planes any faster. They’ll go at the end of the line and wait even longer. And that ignores new training for maintenance teams and pilots and everyone else who would need it. It’s a duopoly with reservations far into the future. Airlines don’t have much choice. Maybe they’ll switch future orders from a 787-Z to the 797-Q because they don’t trust the former, but to switch to Airbus would be a very long process.

teractiveodular 2y ago
COMAC has entered the chat Although the C919 (B737/A320 clone) is not feasible even in theory anywhere outside China until various regulators approve it, and in the double-aisle market the C929 is a long, long way off.
CuriousCosmic 2y ago
It'd be nice to see Dassault try to bring back the Mercure. It was a pretty solid plane designed to compete with the 737 but it just never managed to break out of France due to the economy in the 80s and Boeing & Airbus' comparative success. Dassault is still a major producer of business jets and military fighter jets so it's certainly not like they don't have the skills or capability.