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This line will last for 100+ years - I really don't think it's that much for a state with a GDP of $3trillion+ to connect many of the major cities. The other t

This line will last for 100+ years - I really don't think it's that much for a state with a GDP of $3trillion+ to connect many of the major cities. The other thing to think about is what is the alternative - road or airport construction in california is not cheap. Replacing 2 bridges on I-5 in stockton is going to cost nearly $1b alone. And I think a lot of the benefit won't just come from the main SF LA route, it'll be intermediate stations to SF or LA too. It'll only take 19 minutes to go from Palmdale to LA for example - compared with 1hr+ now. In a way it would have been better to have the IOS be one of those routes, but they are also the most difficult geography.

throwawaymaths 2y ago
> it'll be intermediate stations to SF or LA too. It'll only take 19 minutes to go from Palmdale to LA Is there evidence that people will want to pay the high price of such a train ticket... And then what, once you're in LA? The last mile problem in LA and San Francisco (mind you HSR is not currently planned to enter the city, and BART is insanely expensive) is real.
- TaylorAlexander 2y ago
  BART is insanely expensive? I went from Oakland to San Francisco last night for $4.70, which is cheaper than the bridge toll. I don’t know if that’s expensive compared to other systems, but it’s totally fine by my standards. It might be a lot for a poor person though, hopefully they have some discount programs for those who need it.
  - throwawaymaths 2y ago
    The bridge toll is also one way, and if you're poor, you likely won't have such easy access to those programs (which is a lot of paperwork anyways) on the other side of rail (LA resident accessing SF e.g.). And if Amtrak is any indicator, the HSR will be more expensive than planes anyways.
- jwagenet 2y ago
  I don’t know where the HSR is expected to stop, in or near SF (although last I heard was the Caltrain corridor to 4th and King), but Bart is neither especially expensive if only travelling on the peninsula, nor is it the primary transit for SF (Muni).
  - martinald 2y ago
    Eventually new stations at 4th and king and transbay transit center.
    - throwawaymaths 2y ago
      Ok well that's certainly better I was under the impression the terminus was in Oakland
- matthalvorson 2y ago
  Feel like by the time this rail is done, last mile will be fully covered by robotaxis
  - shiroiushi 2y ago
    No. By the time this rail is done, the last mile will be done by teleporters.
- martinald 2y ago
  I mean every other country in the world? You can get pretty high takeup at fairly high prices - people will pay a lot not to sit in traffic for 2-3hours a day.
- seanmcdirmid 2y ago
  Not exactly expensive, but public transit in LA/SF are nowhere near European levels, let alone Japanese levels. Like, to/from the train, you’ve got a slog of Caltrain, Bart/subway, and bus connections…on both sides well, maybe driving is competitive time wise. The same can be said for Chinese HSR stations that aren’t very centrally located, except they have more metros and cheap taxis to make that pretty viable.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
diogenescynic 2y ago
But why is it exponentially more expensive to build infrastructure in the US than in other countries? Germany just built a tunnel under the sea to Denmark for a lot less $ per mile. Surely it's not just the wages and cost of living--it has to be all the consultants and cronies who take their cut.
- martinald 2y ago
  HS2 in the UK is about double per mile. The US does have some real problems though, the built in america stuff kills projects like this where there isn't a US supply chain in place. And the US tends to have very high standards for "safety" for rail especially. Keep in mind that you can't compare all projects like this. CAHSR total price includes trains, stations and (probably?) operational costs for x years. You often can't compare two projects on a like for like basis.
- pohuing 2y ago
  Yeah under the sea where nobody owns the land and the only residents don't have lungs to scream at you for ruining your beautiful view. Building rail is a nightmare here as well because nimbys reign supreme.
- s1artibartfast 2y ago
  Most of the studies I have read chalk it up to two factors. First is changing project scope. The regulatory and political environment in the US means that projects often go through several planning changes, introduced in the middle of development, leading to wasted resources not just to overcome red tape, but executing on the plans that become obsolete. The second that I have seen is codified labor specialization. This leads to many more workers on a site, where each has a niche role, but low workload.
  - fransje26 2y ago
    Don't forget the abusive use of "expert consultants".
- Symbiote 2y ago
vineyardlabs 2y ago
Notably, Palmdale, CA is the city where residents have the longest average commute of anywhere in the US, largely because people are commuting from there into the city of LA to work. Palmdale is probably one of the only places where you can afford to live / own a home / etc. if you work in LA and don't have a very high income. If you live in Palmdale and work in LA your one-way commute is probably somewhere between 1.5 - 2.5 hours. Just the Palmdale -> LA stretch of this project would massively improve those poor folks' lives, if the ticket prices are reasonable and the boarding process efficient enough for a daily commute. Unfortunately as a CA taxpayer I don't have high hopes for either of those things.

throwawaymaths 2y ago

> it'll be intermediate stations to SF or LA too. It'll only take 19 minutes to go from Palmdale to LA Is there evidence that people will want to pay the high price of such a train ticket... And then what, once you're in LA? The last mile problem in LA and San Francisco (mind you HSR is not currently planned to enter the city, and BART is insanely expensive) is real.

TaylorAlexander 2y ago
BART is insanely expensive? I went from Oakland to San Francisco last night for $4.70, which is cheaper than the bridge toll. I don’t know if that’s expensive compared to other systems, but it’s totally fine by my standards. It might be a lot for a poor person though, hopefully they have some discount programs for those who need it.
- throwawaymaths 2y ago
  The bridge toll is also one way, and if you're poor, you likely won't have such easy access to those programs (which is a lot of paperwork anyways) on the other side of rail (LA resident accessing SF e.g.). And if Amtrak is any indicator, the HSR will be more expensive than planes anyways.
jwagenet 2y ago
I don’t know where the HSR is expected to stop, in or near SF (although last I heard was the Caltrain corridor to 4th and King), but Bart is neither especially expensive if only travelling on the peninsula, nor is it the primary transit for SF (Muni).
- martinald 2y ago
  Eventually new stations at 4th and king and transbay transit center.
  - throwawaymaths 2y ago
    Ok well that's certainly better I was under the impression the terminus was in Oakland
matthalvorson 2y ago
Feel like by the time this rail is done, last mile will be fully covered by robotaxis
- shiroiushi 2y ago
  No. By the time this rail is done, the last mile will be done by teleporters.
martinald 2y ago
I mean every other country in the world? You can get pretty high takeup at fairly high prices - people will pay a lot not to sit in traffic for 2-3hours a day.
seanmcdirmid 2y ago
Not exactly expensive, but public transit in LA/SF are nowhere near European levels, let alone Japanese levels. Like, to/from the train, you’ve got a slog of Caltrain, Bart/subway, and bus connections…on both sides well, maybe driving is competitive time wise. The same can be said for Chinese HSR stations that aren’t very centrally located, except they have more metros and cheap taxis to make that pretty viable.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]

diogenescynic 2y ago

But why is it exponentially more expensive to build infrastructure in the US than in other countries? Germany just built a tunnel under the sea to Denmark for a lot less $ per mile. Surely it's not just the wages and cost of living--it has to be all the consultants and cronies who take their cut.

martinald 2y ago
HS2 in the UK is about double per mile. The US does have some real problems though, the built in america stuff kills projects like this where there isn't a US supply chain in place. And the US tends to have very high standards for "safety" for rail especially. Keep in mind that you can't compare all projects like this. CAHSR total price includes trains, stations and (probably?) operational costs for x years. You often can't compare two projects on a like for like basis.
pohuing 2y ago
Yeah under the sea where nobody owns the land and the only residents don't have lungs to scream at you for ruining your beautiful view. Building rail is a nightmare here as well because nimbys reign supreme.
s1artibartfast 2y ago
Most of the studies I have read chalk it up to two factors. First is changing project scope. The regulatory and political environment in the US means that projects often go through several planning changes, introduced in the middle of development, leading to wasted resources not just to overcome red tape, but executing on the plans that become obsolete. The second that I have seen is codified labor specialization. This leads to many more workers on a site, where each has a niche role, but low workload.
- fransje26 2y ago
  Don't forget the abusive use of "expert consultants".
Symbiote 2y ago

vineyardlabs 2y ago

Notably, Palmdale, CA is the city where residents have the longest average commute of anywhere in the US, largely because people are commuting from there into the city of LA to work. Palmdale is probably one of the only places where you can afford to live / own a home / etc. if you work in LA and don't have a very high income. If you live in Palmdale and work in LA your one-way commute is probably somewhere between 1.5 - 2.5 hours. Just the Palmdale -> LA stretch of this project would massively improve those poor folks' lives, if the ticket prices are reasonable and the boarding process efficient enough for a daily commute. Unfortunately as a CA taxpayer I don't have high hopes for either of those things.