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"Germany will phase those coal plants out before the end of the decade" Very optimistic. If we can avoid a CD(S)U-AfD coalition it might even work out.

by lukan 2y ago

chihuahua 2y ago
I don't know how they could cope with the loss of lignite strip-mining.
toomuchtodo 2y ago
I approach it from the cold, hard economics and the human lizard brain operating model.
- lukan 2y ago
  You mean: "me feeling cold" "coal is cheap" "burning coal makes me warm" "coal good!" Coal remains the cheapest energy source in the north. Only if you factor in the external costs, it gets expensive - but that factoring in is politics. And there are already lots of people feeling angry and voting "alternatives" because they think the politicians made energy (coal) too expensive. Climafanatics is the term they use for people who say coal is very expensive in the long term .
  - toomuchtodo 2y ago
    If you want to bet $1000 to a charity of the winner’s choice about what coal consumption looks like in 2030, let me know and we’ll spin up a Long Bet. https://longbets.org/ https://longbets.org/
    - MichaelNolan 2y ago
      I wish longbets was more active. I imagine that a big blocker is that they only allow bets to charity, due to American gambling laws. I'm not opposed to the money going to charity, but it definitely limits the number, and size, of bets I'd be willing to make.
      - toomuchtodo 2y ago
        https://manifold.markets/ https://manifold.markets/
    - lukan 2y ago
      Well, I would like to loose that bet and do all I can that I would loose it. So sorry, I am not betting against my interests ..
      - toomuchtodo 2y ago
        So be more optimistic than your comments lead you to be. Pragmatically speaking, the manufacturing learning and deployment curves speak for themselves. Humans suck around this urgent transformation need, but renewables and storage are a freight train that can’t be stopped, based on all available evidence.
        lukan 2y ago
        "So be more optimistic than your comments lead you to be." I think I am as optimistic as one can be, without closing my eyes to the reality on the ground. Where I live, the AfD got 40% of the votes. And further east, poland and co. are not that keen on phasing out coal, either. Thinking coal is definitely going away, because some letters on a paper currently says it will happen, is dangerous I think. It will go away if there is continiously active support for that transition. So far china is also still building lots of coal plants, despite their solar panel production.
      - NavinF 2y ago
        That seems a bit cowardly. People bet against their interests all the time and that’s called hedging. Eg I bet on the President that would be worse for me a decade ago. Winning some money took off all the sting
        lukan 2y ago
        Cowardly? Maybe my english was bad. To be clear: I want burning coal gone as soon as possible. Betting that it isn't going away would give me incentive to activly work against the banning of coal. Why should I do that? edit: but reading more carefully, yeah, that is what you mean. "Winning some money took off all the sting" Well, that is cowardly I think. Betting on both outcomes. I rather invest what I have in the desired outcome, where my consciousness is. Otherwise my motivation would be less. Because I personally would win this way, my reptilian brain likes immediate payout.
  - KennyBlanken 2y ago
    "Coal remains the cheapest energy source in the north." You're about ten years behind on that claim. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source Note the charts showing solar and on-land wind dropped past coal ten years ago and kept dropping while coal has flatlined. Also note that nuclear is getting to be four times the cost of solar. And solar is still dropping. And before you screech about "wHaT aBOut WHen tHe SUn gOES dOWn!1!", google "cost of battery storage trends" Hint: it's dropped to one fifth the cost it was ten years ago. It dropped 15% this year, and that's with an increase in demand of 50%. Economies of scale and competitive pressures are causing battery prices to fall like a rock. Think about that for a second: when Tesla Powerwall was introduced (2015) the batteries in them cost 5x what they do today.
    - lukan 2y ago
      The cost of coal went up because of regulation. I am in favor of that. But take away the regulations - and guess what happens. Coal is condensed energy buried in the ground and cheap to extract. Solar and battery is high tech, mainly coming from china with the domestic production allmost died out in europe. One global escalation and the solar prices will rise - and the coal will still be there. I am arguing against blind optimism. Not against renewables.
      - Arnt 2y ago
        I think you may be comparing fuel supply for a coal plant with installing a new PV plant.
        lukan 2y ago
        The demand of the "alternative" climate change sceptics is, to not phase out the coal plants, but have them running. If you look at the source above, you will find that the coal prices start to rise with the implementation of renewable energy laws and tighter regulation for coal plants. In general, a coal plant is a quite simple technology, compared to solar panels. And if all fails and if you are cold, you can just burn them. It is for a reason, that german slang for money is "coal" ("Kohle").

"Germany will phase those coal plants out before the end of the decade" Very optimistic. If we can avoid a CD(S)U-AfD coalition it might even work out.

by lukan 2y ago

"Germany will phase those coal plants out before the end of the decade" Very optimistic. If we can avoid a CD(S)U-AfD coalition it might even work out.

chihuahua 2y ago

I don't know how they could cope with the loss of lignite strip-mining.

toomuchtodo 2y ago

I approach it from the cold, hard economics and the human lizard brain operating model.

lukan 2y ago
You mean: "me feeling cold" "coal is cheap" "burning coal makes me warm" "coal good!" Coal remains the cheapest energy source in the north. Only if you factor in the external costs, it gets expensive - but that factoring in is politics. And there are already lots of people feeling angry and voting "alternatives" because they think the politicians made energy (coal) too expensive. Climafanatics is the term they use for people who say coal is very expensive in the long term .
- toomuchtodo 2y ago
  If you want to bet $1000 to a charity of the winner’s choice about what coal consumption looks like in 2030, let me know and we’ll spin up a Long Bet. https://longbets.org/ https://longbets.org/
  - MichaelNolan 2y ago
    I wish longbets was more active. I imagine that a big blocker is that they only allow bets to charity, due to American gambling laws. I'm not opposed to the money going to charity, but it definitely limits the number, and size, of bets I'd be willing to make.
    - toomuchtodo 2y ago
      https://manifold.markets/ https://manifold.markets/
  - lukan 2y ago
    Well, I would like to loose that bet and do all I can that I would loose it. So sorry, I am not betting against my interests ..
    - toomuchtodo 2y ago
      So be more optimistic than your comments lead you to be. Pragmatically speaking, the manufacturing learning and deployment curves speak for themselves. Humans suck around this urgent transformation need, but renewables and storage are a freight train that can’t be stopped, based on all available evidence.
      - lukan 2y ago
        "So be more optimistic than your comments lead you to be." I think I am as optimistic as one can be, without closing my eyes to the reality on the ground. Where I live, the AfD got 40% of the votes. And further east, poland and co. are not that keen on phasing out coal, either. Thinking coal is definitely going away, because some letters on a paper currently says it will happen, is dangerous I think. It will go away if there is continiously active support for that transition. So far china is also still building lots of coal plants, despite their solar panel production.
    - NavinF 2y ago
      That seems a bit cowardly. People bet against their interests all the time and that’s called hedging. Eg I bet on the President that would be worse for me a decade ago. Winning some money took off all the sting
      - lukan 2y ago
        Cowardly? Maybe my english was bad. To be clear: I want burning coal gone as soon as possible. Betting that it isn't going away would give me incentive to activly work against the banning of coal. Why should I do that? edit: but reading more carefully, yeah, that is what you mean. "Winning some money took off all the sting" Well, that is cowardly I think. Betting on both outcomes. I rather invest what I have in the desired outcome, where my consciousness is. Otherwise my motivation would be less. Because I personally would win this way, my reptilian brain likes immediate payout.
- KennyBlanken 2y ago
  "Coal remains the cheapest energy source in the north." You're about ten years behind on that claim. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source Note the charts showing solar and on-land wind dropped past coal ten years ago and kept dropping while coal has flatlined. Also note that nuclear is getting to be four times the cost of solar. And solar is still dropping. And before you screech about "wHaT aBOut WHen tHe SUn gOES dOWn!1!", google "cost of battery storage trends" Hint: it's dropped to one fifth the cost it was ten years ago. It dropped 15% this year, and that's with an increase in demand of 50%. Economies of scale and competitive pressures are causing battery prices to fall like a rock. Think about that for a second: when Tesla Powerwall was introduced (2015) the batteries in them cost 5x what they do today.
  - lukan 2y ago
    The cost of coal went up because of regulation. I am in favor of that. But take away the regulations - and guess what happens. Coal is condensed energy buried in the ground and cheap to extract. Solar and battery is high tech, mainly coming from china with the domestic production allmost died out in europe. One global escalation and the solar prices will rise - and the coal will still be there. I am arguing against blind optimism. Not against renewables.
    - Arnt 2y ago
      I think you may be comparing fuel supply for a coal plant with installing a new PV plant.
      - lukan 2y ago
        The demand of the "alternative" climate change sceptics is, to not phase out the coal plants, but have them running. If you look at the source above, you will find that the coal prices start to rise with the implementation of renewable energy laws and tighter regulation for coal plants. In general, a coal plant is a quite simple technology, compared to solar panels. And if all fails and if you are cold, you can just burn them. It is for a reason, that german slang for money is "coal" ("Kohle").