4 ms·

Right, those bubbles need to be popped so the cysts can be drained and the patient (economy) recover.

lazide 2y ago
The size of this cyst is so large, it will likely cause sepsis if it gets punctured. Which is why regulators are being so careful around it.
- scottLobster 2y ago
  So back to ZIRP, let's supersize this cyst until it pops all on its own, and then we can spend the entire federal budget on a bailout and hyperinflate the currency, but damn those equities will moon! I know I left the analogy, but the point is being "careful" and being unwilling to endure productive pain is what got us here.
  - lazide 2y ago
    Yup. So are you signing up to go bankrupt first?
    - scottLobster 2y ago
      If you told me my options were go bankrupt now with a chance at long-term recovery, or retire into/put my kids and grandkids into the worst depression in US history after a few more decades of can-kicking and treating the symptoms over the disease, you're damn right I'd be the first to sign up so long as the necessary reforms were made. But hey, I think long term. Which in our system means I'm not in charge of anything substantial.
      - lazide 2y ago
        Unfortunately I 100% agree/am in the same boat.
  - joe_the_user 2y ago
    The people who began this "perma-bubble" were Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke, thirty years ago. The poison is in every imaginable part of the economy. No only would the "pain" be catastrophic to a large part of the economy but it would be impossible to get a consensus among the governing parties to even begin creating the pain.
    - lazide 2y ago
      Pretty much. And with the boomers retiring (and being the largest voting bloc right now), getting any ‘bandaid ripping’ consensus is even more impossible. So, Japanese ‘lost decade’?
    - scottLobster 2y ago
      It'll be even more catastrophic the longer we indulge. I'm hoping higher for longer is measured in decades so the markets can be brought to heel, but as you say that's probably wishful thinking. They're already talking about agency backed second mortgages, which would primarily give seniors with paid-off homes one last big credit infusion on the way out. So I guess try to ride the various distortions and get out at or near the top, and hope whatever you end up with is enough to weather what comes next.
- FireBeyond 2y ago
  This is the perfect storm, commercial landlords versus small business owners. Commercial landlords doing their thing, while many small business owners think that they are a sacred cow to the country and are constitutionally entitled to a profitable enterprise.
  - fxtentacle 2y ago
    Many small business owners are just so tight on cash flow that trying to raise rent on them is akin to squeezing blood out of a stone. Fwiw, I know a small business owner who closed his bakery/restaurant because his landlord raised prices and he couldn't find another place where the financials would have worked for him. Raising prices isn't an option if your customers don't accept higher prices.
    - lazide 2y ago
      Yup, and a lot of them have been burning what little cash they have remaining trying to do the same thing the commercial landlords have been trying to do - get business going again post-COVID.
    - FireBeyond 2y ago
      There are exceptions. One of my favorite live music venues - and a very popular local one - was basically driven out by their landlord: at the start of COVID, when we had actual lockdowns, they literally doubled the rent, knowing this - and mostly because they wanted that revenue themselves - they got absolutely pilloried when they re-opened (without their tenant), and used all the publicity and photos and name from the tenant's business to say "come here and enjoy our great live music", basically freeloading off the tenant's work. But I do also know plenty of small business owners who act like their business failing is anyone's fault but their own. I watched another business collapse and they were literally posting on Facebook, "It is sad to see that our dream with so much potential collapsed because the community wasn't willing to support it."

The size of this cyst is so large, it will likely cause sepsis if it gets punctured. Which is why regulators are being so careful around it.

scottLobster 2y ago
So back to ZIRP, let's supersize this cyst until it pops all on its own, and then we can spend the entire federal budget on a bailout and hyperinflate the currency, but damn those equities will moon! I know I left the analogy, but the point is being "careful" and being unwilling to endure productive pain is what got us here.
- lazide 2y ago
  Yup. So are you signing up to go bankrupt first?
  - scottLobster 2y ago
    If you told me my options were go bankrupt now with a chance at long-term recovery, or retire into/put my kids and grandkids into the worst depression in US history after a few more decades of can-kicking and treating the symptoms over the disease, you're damn right I'd be the first to sign up so long as the necessary reforms were made. But hey, I think long term. Which in our system means I'm not in charge of anything substantial.
    - lazide 2y ago
      Unfortunately I 100% agree/am in the same boat.
- joe_the_user 2y ago
  The people who began this "perma-bubble" were Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke, thirty years ago. The poison is in every imaginable part of the economy. No only would the "pain" be catastrophic to a large part of the economy but it would be impossible to get a consensus among the governing parties to even begin creating the pain.
  - lazide 2y ago
    Pretty much. And with the boomers retiring (and being the largest voting bloc right now), getting any ‘bandaid ripping’ consensus is even more impossible. So, Japanese ‘lost decade’?
  - scottLobster 2y ago
    It'll be even more catastrophic the longer we indulge. I'm hoping higher for longer is measured in decades so the markets can be brought to heel, but as you say that's probably wishful thinking. They're already talking about agency backed second mortgages, which would primarily give seniors with paid-off homes one last big credit infusion on the way out. So I guess try to ride the various distortions and get out at or near the top, and hope whatever you end up with is enough to weather what comes next.
FireBeyond 2y ago
This is the perfect storm, commercial landlords versus small business owners. Commercial landlords doing their thing, while many small business owners think that they are a sacred cow to the country and are constitutionally entitled to a profitable enterprise.
- fxtentacle 2y ago
  Many small business owners are just so tight on cash flow that trying to raise rent on them is akin to squeezing blood out of a stone. Fwiw, I know a small business owner who closed his bakery/restaurant because his landlord raised prices and he couldn't find another place where the financials would have worked for him. Raising prices isn't an option if your customers don't accept higher prices.
  - lazide 2y ago
    Yup, and a lot of them have been burning what little cash they have remaining trying to do the same thing the commercial landlords have been trying to do - get business going again post-COVID.
  - FireBeyond 2y ago
    There are exceptions. One of my favorite live music venues - and a very popular local one - was basically driven out by their landlord: at the start of COVID, when we had actual lockdowns, they literally doubled the rent, knowing this - and mostly because they wanted that revenue themselves - they got absolutely pilloried when they re-opened (without their tenant), and used all the publicity and photos and name from the tenant's business to say "come here and enjoy our great live music", basically freeloading off the tenant's work. But I do also know plenty of small business owners who act like their business failing is anyone's fault but their own. I watched another business collapse and they were literally posting on Facebook, "It is sad to see that our dream with so much potential collapsed because the community wasn't willing to support it."