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Was funding for the Asteroid Watch program drastically reduced, or why did the detection come in so late? https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/asteroid-watch https://www.j

Was funding for the Asteroid Watch program drastically reduced, or why did the detection come in so late? https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/asteroid-watch https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/asteroid-watch

burnte 2y ago
The sky is really big. No detection will ever be 100%.
- dylan604 2y ago
  Your application for a tourist visa to the Earth Planetary Visitor's Bureau has been denied due to a clerical error. Please alter your course to enter a holding orbit until your application has been resubmitted. We thank you in your interest in visiting Earth.
- jfoutz 2y ago
  For various reasons Armageddon is one of my favorite movies. Action/comedy, not exactly _good_ but I find it enjoyable. I bring it up because of the Fictional mission commander talking to the president, > Begging your pardon sir, but its a big ass sky.
  - foobarian 2y ago
    The best thing about Armageddon for me are open flames in vacuum.
    - deleted 2y ago
      [deleted]
iam-TJ 2y ago
I'm confused about the late warning quote because the data page for MK2024 shows the first observation for the orbit fit was 2024-05-07. https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/tools/sbdb_lookup.html#/?sstr=2024%20MK&view=VOP https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/tools/sbdb_lookup.html#/?sstr=2024%...
- dylan604 2y ago
  So even if they announced on the day of the first observation, that's not really much notice to do anything about it other than start prepping for accepting of loss of life. I would seriously hope it took some amount of time for other people to verify/validate trajectory than the first person that observes it. At this point, we're still at the point of needing years if not decades notice for us to even have a chance of actually protecting from an impact in a meaningful way.
  - prewett 2y ago
    I figure we could get a Falcon Heavy filled with rocks or something launched in a hurry. But, I did the math, and like you say, all we could do is watch. Assuming the standard asteroid density of 2000 kg/m^3 [1], a 260 m diameter asteroid has a volume of 4/3 * pi * 130^3 = 1.84e10 m^3. Falcon Heavy can lift 16818 kg to a transfer orbit to Mars [2], which I assume is basically what it can do to reach an asteroid coming at us. A normal speed of space probes (without gravity assists) seems to be about 25,000 mph = 11600 m/s. Thus, it has a momentum of about 1.95e8 kg*m/s. Assuming we hit the asteroid perpendicular to its motion, transferring all our momentum into transverse velocity, that is 1.95e8 / 1.84e10, or approximately 0.01 m/s. To ensure a miss, it would need to travel the whole diameter of the earth, 6.378e6 m, which would take 6.378e8 seconds, or about 20.2 years, which is the amount of time before impact we would need to hit the asteroid. We would probably have more success hitting it head on. Since the earth is moving at about 3e4 m/s, we only need to delay the asteroid by 213 seconds. The minimum speed of an asteroid impacting Earth is 1.1e4 m/s, so we would need to move it backwards 2.343e6 m. This allows us to hit it slightly later, only 7.3 years ahead of time (in the best-case scenario). Assuming it could vary by a factor of two, we would need up to about a 14 year lead time. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_asteroid_physical_characteristics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_asteroid_physical_cha... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_Heavy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_Heavy [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impact_event https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impact_event
    - alkyon 2y ago
      I haven't done any calculations but wouldn't they use nuclear warheads to deflect it?
whycome 2y ago
Because they had to time the asteroid to show up for World Asteroid Day obviously. https://asteroidday.org/about/ https://asteroidday.org/about/ (June 30th, since 2014)

Was funding for the Asteroid Watch program drastically reduced, or why did the detection come in so late? https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/asteroid-watch https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/asteroid-watch

burnte 2y ago

The sky is really big. No detection will ever be 100%.

dylan604 2y ago
Your application for a tourist visa to the Earth Planetary Visitor's Bureau has been denied due to a clerical error. Please alter your course to enter a holding orbit until your application has been resubmitted. We thank you in your interest in visiting Earth.
jfoutz 2y ago
For various reasons Armageddon is one of my favorite movies. Action/comedy, not exactly _good_ but I find it enjoyable. I bring it up because of the Fictional mission commander talking to the president, > Begging your pardon sir, but its a big ass sky.
- foobarian 2y ago
  The best thing about Armageddon for me are open flames in vacuum.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]

iam-TJ 2y ago

I'm confused about the late warning quote because the data page for MK2024 shows the first observation for the orbit fit was 2024-05-07. https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/tools/sbdb_lookup.html#/?sstr=2024%20MK&view=VOP https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/tools/sbdb_lookup.html#/?sstr=2024%...

dylan604 2y ago
So even if they announced on the day of the first observation, that's not really much notice to do anything about it other than start prepping for accepting of loss of life. I would seriously hope it took some amount of time for other people to verify/validate trajectory than the first person that observes it. At this point, we're still at the point of needing years if not decades notice for us to even have a chance of actually protecting from an impact in a meaningful way.
- prewett 2y ago
  I figure we could get a Falcon Heavy filled with rocks or something launched in a hurry. But, I did the math, and like you say, all we could do is watch. Assuming the standard asteroid density of 2000 kg/m^3 [1], a 260 m diameter asteroid has a volume of 4/3 * pi * 130^3 = 1.84e10 m^3. Falcon Heavy can lift 16818 kg to a transfer orbit to Mars [2], which I assume is basically what it can do to reach an asteroid coming at us. A normal speed of space probes (without gravity assists) seems to be about 25,000 mph = 11600 m/s. Thus, it has a momentum of about 1.95e8 kg*m/s. Assuming we hit the asteroid perpendicular to its motion, transferring all our momentum into transverse velocity, that is 1.95e8 / 1.84e10, or approximately 0.01 m/s. To ensure a miss, it would need to travel the whole diameter of the earth, 6.378e6 m, which would take 6.378e8 seconds, or about 20.2 years, which is the amount of time before impact we would need to hit the asteroid. We would probably have more success hitting it head on. Since the earth is moving at about 3e4 m/s, we only need to delay the asteroid by 213 seconds. The minimum speed of an asteroid impacting Earth is 1.1e4 m/s, so we would need to move it backwards 2.343e6 m. This allows us to hit it slightly later, only 7.3 years ahead of time (in the best-case scenario). Assuming it could vary by a factor of two, we would need up to about a 14 year lead time. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_asteroid_physical_characteristics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_asteroid_physical_cha... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_Heavy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_Heavy [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impact_event https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impact_event
  - alkyon 2y ago
    I haven't done any calculations but wouldn't they use nuclear warheads to deflect it?

whycome 2y ago

Because they had to time the asteroid to show up for World Asteroid Day obviously. https://asteroidday.org/about/ https://asteroidday.org/about/ (June 30th, since 2014)