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I went to a launch event for this book, and the crowd was definitely skeptical of a few of his larger predictions. I think he will end up being directionally co

• clipsy 2y ago
  > I think he will end up being directionally correct. A random person off the street will likely end up being "directionally correct" if asked about the future.
• anonzzzies 2y ago
  In his older works at least, what he did well, was putting the dates of events in the near future. Some things were rather obvious (but in hindsight) as they were already happening and extrapolating wasn’t that visionary (smartphones and the cloud), but his brilliant thing was that he didn’t move them further to the future as others did; that looks a lot better with the year indeed somewhat close to the years we will remember it as in the history books. GenAI he was even too optimistic about but others of his time thought this was decades to 100 years off as they thought (and many still think) agi is very far fetched even now. I (Msc in AI from the 90s) was one of the people who thought before 2023 that 2045 would be impossible; I said we are 100 years or more away from it. Now I am not so sure. I haven’t read his later work (yet) but it seems he is better with timelines than others and you should be when predicting something; what use is it to predict something in 100+ years? You and your predictions will be long forgotten by then, so might as well be bold.