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Maybe twenty years, after taking out the Starlink constellation and most other satellites below ~400 KM. I'm sure that we'd still risk unmanned launches to hig
by dotancohen 2y ago
Maybe twenty years, after taking out the Starlink constellation and most other satellites below ~400 KM.
I'm sure that we'd still risk unmanned launches to higher altitudes during this time, but manned launches would very likely be restricted, at least by risk-adverse NASA.
- WJW 2y agoA starlink satellite has a life expectancy of only about 5 years anyway, and that is WITH station keeping ion thrusters. Anything smaller than a starlink satellite will likely have an even shorter lifespan due to having worse mass vs surface area ratio because of the square cube law, and should be gone within a few years. Anything larger can easily be tracked with radars etc and should still be gone relatively quickly.
- dotancohen 2y agoYes, but we won't have use of the functionality that the Starlink satellites provide for the duration of the natural deorbits from ~400 KM.
- treyd 2y agoSmaller debris deorbits faster, Starlink is in VLEO.
- dotancohen 2y agoYes, but the ISS debris would be raining down on it from about ~400 KM - so it will take a bit longer for all that to come down.
- Dylan16807 2y agoThere would need to be a lot of it to overcome continued launches. Once each piece of debris is coming down to that altitude it doesn't have a lot of time left.