5 ms·

The Singularity Is Nearer

31 points by olooney 2y ago

olooney 2y ago
Ray Kurzweil's new book was released today (2024-06-25.) Thoughts?
- tim333 2y ago
  I've been flicking through it. It seems a fun read although probably no dramatic new facts that weren't out there already.
simonblack 2y ago
Every day that passes brings the singularity one day closer. However ... there is no way that the singularity as promised will occur within our lifetimes. It won't hurt you to dream though. It might keep you off the streets.
- llamaimperative 2y ago
  > there is no way that the singularity as promised will occur within our lifetimes. There are a lot of problems that won’t fully materialize during our lifetime but are nonetheless worth worrying about and mitigating.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
- Spod_Gaju 2y ago
  And every day I walk, I get closer to the horizon.
  - lostmsu 2y ago
    I think we might be past the horizon short of possibility of our own self-destruction.
  - simonblack 2y ago
    <grin> That's probably more accurately how I look at the singularity, actually. The singularity is ever receding.
- bamboozled 2y ago
  You mean immortal life in digital heaven will not come true in 5 years?
  - aleph_minus_one 2y ago
    > You mean immortal life in digital heaven will not come true in 5 years? Only for those who don't believe in Kurzweil.
- tim333 2y ago
  My recollection is he always says it happens around 2045 so some of us may be living. I'm not sure he defines what it is very clearly though. I've got a personal definition involving stuff you can get done per hour of human labour. When robots can do it all with zero human labour that goes infinite so you get a proper mathematical singularity.
dlevine 2y ago
It has been a decade or so since I read The Singularity is Near. From what I remember, Kurzweil said that technologies will increase exponentially once they become linked to the exponential increase in computing power. Now that Moore's Law has leveled off, I do wonder what will keep the exponential increase going. For example, LLMs are increasing exponentially in size each generation, but that also involves an exponential increase in cost, and will only be sustainable up to a certain point.
- largbae 2y ago
  In Kurzweil's version, Moore's law is not a metric of transistor capacity per dollar, but instead is an exponential growth of the amount of information that humans can leverage. He claims that this has been going for thousands of years and continues (quite vertically) now.
  - djaouen 2y ago
    I would argue that there will be a horizontalization of the curve at some point. Meaning, we cannot continue exponentially forever.
    - lostmsu 2y ago
      Unless we discover new physics we will be bound to cubic growth.
- xpl 2y ago
  > but that also involves an exponential increase in cost Not necessarily. For training, yes. But there surely will be custom hardware specialized for the inference of "1-bit" quantized models, which could be orders of magnitude more energy-effective than GPUs. Hell, you probably can even bake trained models in silicon. Maybe instead of digital logic, use analog circuits. Photonics? I believe there's so much room for improvement and I feel that GPUs are just the "training wheels" (lol, quite literally) — there will be exponentially more effective hardware for running LLMs.
seniortaco 2y ago
I can't wait for the next installment, "The Singularity is Nearerer".
- jeswin 2y ago
  His original prediction about 2029 (or say 2039 or whatever near term) doesn't seem impossible anymore. I'd rate the prediction as impressive - given that it was made way before the current AI boom.
  - abetusk 2y ago
    Note also that Gibson semi-predicted 2035 [0] and Ghost in the Shell also predicted 2029 [1] (maybe basing their number off of Kurzweil, I don't know). I think there are many ways to get at a concrete prediction of 2029, or thereabouts, by noticing a halving of cost for the same compute and/or storage every 1.5 to 3 years. This is a sort of generalized Moore's law or, maybe, just Wright's law [2]. Do this calculation to get 2.3Pb of storage, the estimated storage size of the human brain, for under $5k and you get within the range of 2030, give or take a decade. $5k is my arbitrary cutoff price point as this puts it in the "home computer" category and is, in my opinion, the price point that set off the home computer revolution. [0] https://www.motherjones.com/media/2014/10/william-gibson-peripheral-vision-time-travel-interview/ https://www.motherjones.com/media/2014/10/william-gibson-per... [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghost_in_the_Shell_(manga) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghost_in_the_Shell_(manga) [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Experience_curve_effects https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Experience_curve_effects
  - Spod_Gaju 2y ago
    A lot of cults get the end times glory date wrong. This is just another one.
    - tim333 2y ago
      He does quite a lot of dates and some are pretty accurate. Computers winning chess he predicted one year later than it happened. Turing test he predicted 2029 and while not very clearly defined I'd say that is happening about now.
stephc_int13 2y ago
Kurzweil's vision of the technological singularity may be more distant than his optimistic predictions suggest. The concept of a singularity - a point of rapid, transformative change beyond which predictions become unreliable - is inherently challenging to analyze. However, examining historical examples of singularity-like events can provide valuable insights. - The Big Bang: Often regarded as the ultimate singularity, this event marked the birth of our universe and the beginning of space, time, and matter as we understand them. - The emergence of organic life: The transition from inorganic matter to self-replicating, complex organisms represents another fundamental shift in the nature of our world. - The evolution of human consciousness: The development of our species, with its unprecedented cognitive abilities and capacity for abstract thought, can be seen as a singularity in the progression of life on Earth. These examples share a common characteristic: while their impacts are immeasurably significant, the full realization of their consequences unfolds over vast periods of time. The Big Bang occurred approximately 13.8 billion years ago, yet the universe continues to evolve. Life on Earth emerged roughly 3.5 billion years ago, with complex multicellular organisms appearing much later. Human beings have existed for a mere fraction of that time, yet our impact on the planet is still unfolding. Drawing parallels to these historical singularities, it's reasonable to infer that even if a technological singularity were to occur within the next few decades, its effects would likely manifest gradually rather than instantaneously. The idea that such an event would fundamentally alter every aspect of our existence "in the blink of an eye" may be an oversimplification. Consider, for example, the Industrial Revolution. While it dramatically transformed society, economy, and technology, these changes occurred over decades and centuries, not overnight. Similarly, the ongoing Digital Revolution has been reshaping our world for several decades, with its full impact still unfolding.
- adventured 2y ago
  There was no big bang. It's just a local recycling operation being confused with something much grander due to human ego (the same ego that dreamed up gods to amplify human importance). The universe is trillions of times larger than we currently think it is, humanity is comically misjudging the macro scale (just as it comically misjudged the micro scale previously).
Log_out_ 2y ago
The hothouse flower in the burning hothouse dreams of freedom in the winterlands behind the glass.
tim333 2y ago
I just downloaded it which was a bit of a job as it said not yet available in UK/US but Kobo with the VPN set to Singapore worked. It seems quite jolly. Maybe a bit more philosophical than the last one.

31 points by olooney 2y ago

olooney 2y ago

Ray Kurzweil's new book was released today (2024-06-25.) Thoughts?

tim333 2y ago
I've been flicking through it. It seems a fun read although probably no dramatic new facts that weren't out there already.

simonblack 2y ago

Every day that passes brings the singularity one day closer. However ... there is no way that the singularity as promised will occur within our lifetimes. It won't hurt you to dream though. It might keep you off the streets.

llamaimperative 2y ago
> there is no way that the singularity as promised will occur within our lifetimes. There are a lot of problems that won’t fully materialize during our lifetime but are nonetheless worth worrying about and mitigating.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
Spod_Gaju 2y ago
And every day I walk, I get closer to the horizon.
- lostmsu 2y ago
  I think we might be past the horizon short of possibility of our own self-destruction.
- simonblack 2y ago
  <grin> That's probably more accurately how I look at the singularity, actually. The singularity is ever receding.
bamboozled 2y ago
You mean immortal life in digital heaven will not come true in 5 years?
- aleph_minus_one 2y ago
  > You mean immortal life in digital heaven will not come true in 5 years? Only for those who don't believe in Kurzweil.
tim333 2y ago
My recollection is he always says it happens around 2045 so some of us may be living. I'm not sure he defines what it is very clearly though. I've got a personal definition involving stuff you can get done per hour of human labour. When robots can do it all with zero human labour that goes infinite so you get a proper mathematical singularity.

dlevine 2y ago

It has been a decade or so since I read The Singularity is Near. From what I remember, Kurzweil said that technologies will increase exponentially once they become linked to the exponential increase in computing power. Now that Moore's Law has leveled off, I do wonder what will keep the exponential increase going. For example, LLMs are increasing exponentially in size each generation, but that also involves an exponential increase in cost, and will only be sustainable up to a certain point.

largbae 2y ago
In Kurzweil's version, Moore's law is not a metric of transistor capacity per dollar, but instead is an exponential growth of the amount of information that humans can leverage. He claims that this has been going for thousands of years and continues (quite vertically) now.
- djaouen 2y ago
  I would argue that there will be a horizontalization of the curve at some point. Meaning, we cannot continue exponentially forever.
  - lostmsu 2y ago
    Unless we discover new physics we will be bound to cubic growth.
xpl 2y ago
> but that also involves an exponential increase in cost Not necessarily. For training, yes. But there surely will be custom hardware specialized for the inference of "1-bit" quantized models, which could be orders of magnitude more energy-effective than GPUs. Hell, you probably can even bake trained models in silicon. Maybe instead of digital logic, use analog circuits. Photonics? I believe there's so much room for improvement and I feel that GPUs are just the "training wheels" (lol, quite literally) — there will be exponentially more effective hardware for running LLMs.

seniortaco 2y ago

I can't wait for the next installment, "The Singularity is Nearerer".

jeswin 2y ago
His original prediction about 2029 (or say 2039 or whatever near term) doesn't seem impossible anymore. I'd rate the prediction as impressive - given that it was made way before the current AI boom.
- abetusk 2y ago
  Note also that Gibson semi-predicted 2035 [0] and Ghost in the Shell also predicted 2029 [1] (maybe basing their number off of Kurzweil, I don't know). I think there are many ways to get at a concrete prediction of 2029, or thereabouts, by noticing a halving of cost for the same compute and/or storage every 1.5 to 3 years. This is a sort of generalized Moore's law or, maybe, just Wright's law [2]. Do this calculation to get 2.3Pb of storage, the estimated storage size of the human brain, for under $5k and you get within the range of 2030, give or take a decade. $5k is my arbitrary cutoff price point as this puts it in the "home computer" category and is, in my opinion, the price point that set off the home computer revolution. [0] https://www.motherjones.com/media/2014/10/william-gibson-peripheral-vision-time-travel-interview/ https://www.motherjones.com/media/2014/10/william-gibson-per... [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghost_in_the_Shell_(manga) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghost_in_the_Shell_(manga) [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Experience_curve_effects https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Experience_curve_effects
- Spod_Gaju 2y ago
  A lot of cults get the end times glory date wrong. This is just another one.
  - tim333 2y ago
    He does quite a lot of dates and some are pretty accurate. Computers winning chess he predicted one year later than it happened. Turing test he predicted 2029 and while not very clearly defined I'd say that is happening about now.

stephc_int13 2y ago

Kurzweil's vision of the technological singularity may be more distant than his optimistic predictions suggest. The concept of a singularity - a point of rapid, transformative change beyond which predictions become unreliable - is inherently challenging to analyze. However, examining historical examples of singularity-like events can provide valuable insights. - The Big Bang: Often regarded as the ultimate singularity, this event marked the birth of our universe and the beginning of space, time, and matter as we understand them. - The emergence of organic life: The transition from inorganic matter to self-replicating, complex organisms represents another fundamental shift in the nature of our world. - The evolution of human consciousness: The development of our species, with its unprecedented cognitive abilities and capacity for abstract thought, can be seen as a singularity in the progression of life on Earth. These examples share a common characteristic: while their impacts are immeasurably significant, the full realization of their consequences unfolds over vast periods of time. The Big Bang occurred approximately 13.8 billion years ago, yet the universe continues to evolve. Life on Earth emerged roughly 3.5 billion years ago, with complex multicellular organisms appearing much later. Human beings have existed for a mere fraction of that time, yet our impact on the planet is still unfolding. Drawing parallels to these historical singularities, it's reasonable to infer that even if a technological singularity were to occur within the next few decades, its effects would likely manifest gradually rather than instantaneously. The idea that such an event would fundamentally alter every aspect of our existence "in the blink of an eye" may be an oversimplification. Consider, for example, the Industrial Revolution. While it dramatically transformed society, economy, and technology, these changes occurred over decades and centuries, not overnight. Similarly, the ongoing Digital Revolution has been reshaping our world for several decades, with its full impact still unfolding.

adventured 2y ago
There was no big bang. It's just a local recycling operation being confused with something much grander due to human ego (the same ego that dreamed up gods to amplify human importance). The universe is trillions of times larger than we currently think it is, humanity is comically misjudging the macro scale (just as it comically misjudged the micro scale previously).

Log_out_ 2y ago

The hothouse flower in the burning hothouse dreams of freedom in the winterlands behind the glass.

tim333 2y ago

I just downloaded it which was a bit of a job as it said not yet available in UK/US but Kobo with the VPN set to Singapore worked. It seems quite jolly. Maybe a bit more philosophical than the last one.