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What makes you think that China has much sway over Iran? The world isn't divided into the countries that are under American hegemony and the countries that are
by lolinder 2y ago
What makes you think that China has much sway over Iran?
The world isn't divided into the countries that are under American hegemony and the countries that are under Chinese hegemony. It's more that there are the countries under American hegemony, the countries on mostly-friendly terms with the Americans but able to say no to them, and the small number of countries that are entirely cut off by the USA.
This last group tends to not want to just trade one hegemon for another, they try their best to become self-sufficient and able to say no to everyone. Iran is very much in that category: just because they're on friendlier terms with China than with the USA doesn't make them beholden to them.
- rehitman 2y agoYou are correct, but a country like Iran doesn't have any trade partner other than China, so if China wants it can put enough pressure on them to stop. I.e., Iran will be forced to listen to China, not that it likes.
- tzs 2y agoSomething like 70-80% of Iran's budget comes from oil sales, and around 90% of Iran's oil sales are to China. I'd guess that would make Iran take requests from China very seriously.
- AnimalMuppet 2y agoOr the other way around. It might make China take requests from Iran very seriously. Depends on whether China needs the oil worse than Iran needs the money. [Edit: I'm rate limited for my own good, so I'm replying to jimbokun here: Which do I think is more likely? I have no data. Particularly, I have no data about the elasticity of China's oil demand.]
- jimbokun 2y agoWhich do you think is more likely?
- jncfhnb 2y agoOk but just logically. What’s more important? 80% of your economy? Or more expensive energy? Whatever we believe about the latter, the former is existential.
- antisthenes 2y ago> 80% of your economy? Or more expensive energy? Logically they are the same thing. Economy makes things with energy.
- jncfhnb 2y agoLet’s use common sense though please. What’s more important? ~90% of government revenue that has no substitute? Or ~10% of oil imports for which there are a plethora of alternatives?
- AnimalMuppet 2y agoWell, see, that was my question. Are there a plethora of alternatives for China? If they cut off Iran, where would they get the replacement oil from? Who has the capacity. Are they willing to sell to China? If so, at what price? If it's freely available, and at the same price, that answers my question. If it's only available at a higher price, then the question is, what does that higher price do to China's economy? And if it's not available at all, what does the absence do to China's economy? You said "a plethora of alternatives". Are there, really? Can you (or someone) show that others are ready and willing to supply that much oil?
- mslt 2y agoChina has a significant interest in disrupting western control and does so without provoking direct open war by funding Iran’s funding of destabilizing forces (Houthi, hezbollah, taliban, Isis, hamas).
- pyrophane 2y agoPerhaps, but isn't the Suez Canal the only reasonable way to ship bulk goods between Europe and Asia? Doesn't China depend heavily on access to the European markets that these attacks disrupt? I would think that that would outweigh their other interests here.
- 1oooqooq 2y agoignoring what you learned from us political thoric... what do you think would happen to China if all sea trade halted today?
- jncfhnb 2y agoFamine?
- 1oooqooq 2y agochina is mostly self sufficient on food. or can do with local Thai or Philippines just fine. for context, they buy all the soy from USA and Brazil just to feed pigs because their middle class exploded and now want premium food. see, you're still thinking under the political taking points of USA and not looking at actual data.
- jncfhnb 2y agoChina purchases about 90% of Iranian oil which is the only meaningful source of revenue for this fiscally starved country