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I don't know anything about the secondary market for Hermes bags but it seems like it's pretty healthy. But watches from certain brands (and certain models) ca

by cletus 2y ago

I don't know anything about the secondary market for Hermes bags but it seems like it's pretty healthy. But watches from certain brands (and certain models) can be sold immediately for a profit. For example, a Rolex steel Daytona retails for $14k from an MSRP. You'll sell it in a heartbeat on the secondary market for $30k. The Rainbow Daytona a handful of years ago was $100-150k IIRC. It's now closer to $500-600k. The market is off its peak of 2021-2022 quite a bit but I've bought several luxury watches that could be sold for a healthy profit if I was so inclined.

TheRoque 2y ago
What makes some of these products go crazy heights, while (I guess that) some other just lose value or never gain value ? Are those products better than others or is it just some pure coincidental mix of factors ?
- cletus 2y ago
  It's really difficult to predict and has to be managed well by the company. But a big one is when a model gets discontinued because at that point no more will be made so supply is fixed. So the current generation of professional (ie steel) Daytonas have a ceramic bezel. This is to avoid scratches but means they can shatter with enough force. The ceramic itself is baked in a plasma furnace. The tech behind these things can actually be really cool. So Daytonas have historically sold above MSRP on the secondary market but not by this much. About 10 years ago the new ceramic Daytonas were released and what happened was a lot of people sold their previous DAytonas to "upgrade". This meant that what was 6 months earlier a $13k MSRP watch was selling for $10-11k and that seemed crazy to me given it was now discontinued so I bought one. At the peak of the market, that watch would sell for $30-35k. Now it's probably under $25k but that's still a good investment. But steel Rolexes never really appreciate that much because the volumes ard really high. You're not going to get rich buying a steel Submariner. There's simply too many of them out there. But one exception is the really vintage Daytonas, particularly what are called Paul Newman Daytonas [1]. These were watches that back in the 1980s sat in a display case for years (at $500 or less) because no one bought them but an association with Paul Newman skyrocketed them in the public consciousness to the point that a 1960s era Paul Newman Daytona in mint condition can easily be worth $500k-$1m+. The market dynamics are really fascinating but it's now become essentially impossible buy an in-demand watch from an AD unless you're a big spender on other products there (they're all typically jewelers as well). The history of Rolex was in utility not luxury (eg the GMT was invented for Pan Am pilots who suddenly were flying cross-country, the Submariner is a dive watch, the Daytona was originally for racing drivers, etc). [1]: https://www.bobswatches.com/paul-newman-rolex-daytona https://www.bobswatches.com/paul-newman-rolex-daytona
  - TheRoque 2y ago
    Thanks for that small piece of history, that's indeed fascinating
- bbreier 2y ago
  A mix of quality, management of scarcity, x-factor (call it what you will, some kind of intrinsic appeal to the in group who buy this sort of thing or otherwise inherent desirability), and marketing
- throwaway2037 2y ago
  I would say: Careful marketing. Who gets access to buy this kind of watch? All you need to do is Google: Rolex Rainbow Daytona. Look at all the celebrities that appear wearing that specific model. It is not an accident.
bluecalm 2y ago
Yup and it's not so easy to buy them, you need to get into a queue and wait. People with access shops/employee privileges (sometimes you can buy a watch out of the queue if someone doesn't show up to get theirs) are making a killing.
FpUser 2y ago
Well, this is a bit different. It is a way to safely park one's money. Not paying 10x price for a thing with the whole purpose being to show that I am fucking rich.

by cletus 2y ago

TheRoque 2y ago

What makes some of these products go crazy heights, while (I guess that) some other just lose value or never gain value ? Are those products better than others or is it just some pure coincidental mix of factors ?

cletus 2y ago
It's really difficult to predict and has to be managed well by the company. But a big one is when a model gets discontinued because at that point no more will be made so supply is fixed. So the current generation of professional (ie steel) Daytonas have a ceramic bezel. This is to avoid scratches but means they can shatter with enough force. The ceramic itself is baked in a plasma furnace. The tech behind these things can actually be really cool. So Daytonas have historically sold above MSRP on the secondary market but not by this much. About 10 years ago the new ceramic Daytonas were released and what happened was a lot of people sold their previous DAytonas to "upgrade". This meant that what was 6 months earlier a $13k MSRP watch was selling for $10-11k and that seemed crazy to me given it was now discontinued so I bought one. At the peak of the market, that watch would sell for $30-35k. Now it's probably under $25k but that's still a good investment. But steel Rolexes never really appreciate that much because the volumes ard really high. You're not going to get rich buying a steel Submariner. There's simply too many of them out there. But one exception is the really vintage Daytonas, particularly what are called Paul Newman Daytonas [1]. These were watches that back in the 1980s sat in a display case for years (at $500 or less) because no one bought them but an association with Paul Newman skyrocketed them in the public consciousness to the point that a 1960s era Paul Newman Daytona in mint condition can easily be worth $500k-$1m+. The market dynamics are really fascinating but it's now become essentially impossible buy an in-demand watch from an AD unless you're a big spender on other products there (they're all typically jewelers as well). The history of Rolex was in utility not luxury (eg the GMT was invented for Pan Am pilots who suddenly were flying cross-country, the Submariner is a dive watch, the Daytona was originally for racing drivers, etc). [1]: https://www.bobswatches.com/paul-newman-rolex-daytona https://www.bobswatches.com/paul-newman-rolex-daytona
- TheRoque 2y ago
  Thanks for that small piece of history, that's indeed fascinating
bbreier 2y ago
A mix of quality, management of scarcity, x-factor (call it what you will, some kind of intrinsic appeal to the in group who buy this sort of thing or otherwise inherent desirability), and marketing
throwaway2037 2y ago
I would say: Careful marketing. Who gets access to buy this kind of watch? All you need to do is Google: Rolex Rainbow Daytona. Look at all the celebrities that appear wearing that specific model. It is not an accident.

bluecalm 2y ago

Yup and it's not so easy to buy them, you need to get into a queue and wait. People with access shops/employee privileges (sometimes you can buy a watch out of the queue if someone doesn't show up to get theirs) are making a killing.

FpUser 2y ago

Well, this is a bit different. It is a way to safely park one's money. Not paying 10x price for a thing with the whole purpose being to show that I am fucking rich.