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> French day-ahead power fell to -€5.76 a megawatt-hour, the lowest in four years, in an auction on Epex Spot. Germany’s equivalent contract dropped to €7.64.

> French day-ahead power fell to -€5.76 a megawatt-hour, the lowest in four years, in an auction on Epex Spot. Germany’s equivalent contract dropped to €7.64. If true - how fast could a new transmission line from France to Germany pay for itself?

toomuchtodo 2y ago
https://montelnews.com/news/e15ef79e-2905-41ca-9124-165d74699be9/franco-german-power-price-gap-is-here-to-stay-analysts https://montelnews.com/news/e15ef79e-2905-41ca-9124-165d7469... https://montelnews.com/news/1525872/france-to-miss-2030-interconnector-targets-tso https://montelnews.com/news/1525872/france-to-miss-2030-inte... https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSL5N0KW3WE/ https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSL5N0KW3WE/
ganeshkrishnan 2y ago
Germany already buys electricity from France. The cost mentioned above are the subsidized charges by the EDF to the french government. Germans would get the full cost which is much higher than the quoted price here. Besides nuclear power is not flexible enough to amp it up and down according to demand (unlike coal or petrocarbon industries).
- toomuchtodo 2y ago
  French reactors are built to load follow [1]. It is harder on the valves, but they do it ("maneuvering capabilities"). Regardless, it would be better if they could run flat out to push out fossil generation in adjacent grids (Germany, the UK, and Northern Italy) with sufficient interconnector capacity. France also still has a bit of coal and fossil gas generation to retire [2] [3]. TLDR More interconnector capacity, battery storage, and renewables needed (my analysis). [1] https://www.oecd-nea.org/upload/docs/application/pdf/2021-12/technical_and_economic_aspects_of_load_following_with_nuclear_power_plants.pdf https://www.oecd-nea.org/upload/docs/application/pdf/2021-12... [2] https://app.electricitymaps.com/zone/FR?wind=false&solar=false https://app.electricitymaps.com/zone/FR?wind=false&solar=fal... [3] https://www.euractiv.com/section/coal/news/france-extends-life-of-last-coal-fired-plants-to-avoid-winter-shortfalls/ https://www.euractiv.com/section/coal/news/france-extends-li...
  - pydry 2y ago
    Which theyve actually used very very rarely. Nuclear reactors are already very cost ineffective when used as baseload. Theyre ridiculously cost ineffective when used for load following since it's basically curtailment. This is why most countries tend to use gas or hydro/pumped storage for load following (or, increasingly, batteries as theyve been plummeting in price).
    - deleted 2y ago
      [deleted]
    - orwin 2y ago
      It's untrue, it is used everyday on all our Gen3/Gen3+ reactors (our Gen2 are able to do it too, but it does cost a lot as core monitoring is more costly for them) I've found this https://www.oecd-nea.org/nea-news/2011/29-2/aen-infos-suivi-charge-29-2.pdf https://www.oecd-nea.org/nea-news/2011/29-2/aen-infos-suivi-... even if it isn't really clear, you have a graph that show you a typical year on a french reactor, and load followinf the german reactors used to do over a day.
    - throw0101c 2y ago
      > Nuclear reactors are already very cost ineffective when used as baseload. Ontario, Canada would disagree with you: nuclear is 10.1¢/kWh, hydro is 6.2¢, (methane/natural) gas is 11.4¢; see Table 2: * https://www.oeb.ca/sites/default/files/rpp-price-report-20231019.pdf https://www.oeb.ca/sites/default/files/rpp-price-report-2023... Of course hydro-electric dams typically flood many hectares of land for the reservoir. The current ones are getting refurbished: * https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/niagara-ontario-power-generation-sir-adam-beck-refurbish-1.7174267 https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/niagara-ontario-power... Ontario's nuclear fleet are also in the middle of a bunch of refurbs: * https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-nuclear-power-pickering-refurbishment-electricity-1.7098524 https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-nuclear-power... Some of which are finished: * https://www.opg.com/releases/opg-celebrates-the-early-completion-of-darlington-unit-3/ https://www.opg.com/releases/opg-celebrates-the-early-comple... Live data on Ontario's grid: * https://ieso.ca/power-data https://ieso.ca/power-data § "Supply" tab
dmurray 2y ago
Let's see: The line can't just go a few metres across the border. Let's say it connects Dortmund, in the German industrial heartland on the French side of the country, with Chooz, the site of a nuclear plant near the German border. French nuclear plants are evenly distributed around the country [0], so that should be a reasonable choice. That's 250 km. High voltage transmission costs around €2m/km to build [1] and carries around 2 GW of power [2]. So your line costs €500m to build and makes €13 x 2000 = €26,000 an hour and pays for itself after 20,000 hours or three years. You might reasonably say you wouldn't expect to capture all of the €13 per MWh in arbitrage profits, and perhaps this disparity was a short-lived aberration. But actually it's not: electricity futures in France are priced €25 cheaper than their equivalent contracts in Germany [3], so you could reasonably expect to capture a good portion of that - if you split the surplus between you, the consumer and the producer you can still get €9. Of course, one problem with this free money is that your competitors are already doing it. The gap is expected to narrow over time thanks to interconnectors like this, increased generation in Germany, and French nuclear plants going out of service [3]. Still, with increasing electrification of the energy market, this kind of power transmission seems like a good business to be in and a good investment for national governments and grid operators. [0] https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Map-of-French-nuclear-power-plants-30_fig1_308513695 https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Map-of-French-nuclear-po... [1] https://www.researchgate.net/publication/358793859_Cost_of_energy_infrastructure_in_Europe_and_Austria_electricity_gas_oil_and_heat https://www.researchgate.net/publication/358793859_Cost_of_e... [2] https://web.ecs.baylor.edu/faculty/grady/_13_EE392J_2_Spring11_AEP_Transmission_Facts.pdf https://web.ecs.baylor.edu/faculty/grady/_13_EE392J_2_Spring... [3] https://montelnews.com/news/e15ef79e-2905-41ca-9124-165d74699be9/franco-german-power-price-gap-is-here-to-stay-analysts https://montelnews.com/news/e15ef79e-2905-41ca-9124-165d7469...
- jandrese 2y ago
  In general if the incentives are already aligned to solve a problem I don't worry about the problem. It is likely to solve itself without any intervention.
  - dmurray 2y ago

toomuchtodo 2y ago

https://montelnews.com/news/e15ef79e-2905-41ca-9124-165d74699be9/franco-german-power-price-gap-is-here-to-stay-analysts https://montelnews.com/news/e15ef79e-2905-41ca-9124-165d7469... https://montelnews.com/news/1525872/france-to-miss-2030-interconnector-targets-tso https://montelnews.com/news/1525872/france-to-miss-2030-inte... https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSL5N0KW3WE/ https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSL5N0KW3WE/

ganeshkrishnan 2y ago

Germany already buys electricity from France. The cost mentioned above are the subsidized charges by the EDF to the french government. Germans would get the full cost which is much higher than the quoted price here. Besides nuclear power is not flexible enough to amp it up and down according to demand (unlike coal or petrocarbon industries).

toomuchtodo 2y ago
French reactors are built to load follow [1]. It is harder on the valves, but they do it ("maneuvering capabilities"). Regardless, it would be better if they could run flat out to push out fossil generation in adjacent grids (Germany, the UK, and Northern Italy) with sufficient interconnector capacity. France also still has a bit of coal and fossil gas generation to retire [2] [3]. TLDR More interconnector capacity, battery storage, and renewables needed (my analysis). [1] https://www.oecd-nea.org/upload/docs/application/pdf/2021-12/technical_and_economic_aspects_of_load_following_with_nuclear_power_plants.pdf https://www.oecd-nea.org/upload/docs/application/pdf/2021-12... [2] https://app.electricitymaps.com/zone/FR?wind=false&solar=false https://app.electricitymaps.com/zone/FR?wind=false&solar=fal... [3] https://www.euractiv.com/section/coal/news/france-extends-life-of-last-coal-fired-plants-to-avoid-winter-shortfalls/ https://www.euractiv.com/section/coal/news/france-extends-li...
- pydry 2y ago
  Which theyve actually used very very rarely. Nuclear reactors are already very cost ineffective when used as baseload. Theyre ridiculously cost ineffective when used for load following since it's basically curtailment. This is why most countries tend to use gas or hydro/pumped storage for load following (or, increasingly, batteries as theyve been plummeting in price).
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
  - orwin 2y ago
    It's untrue, it is used everyday on all our Gen3/Gen3+ reactors (our Gen2 are able to do it too, but it does cost a lot as core monitoring is more costly for them) I've found this https://www.oecd-nea.org/nea-news/2011/29-2/aen-infos-suivi-charge-29-2.pdf https://www.oecd-nea.org/nea-news/2011/29-2/aen-infos-suivi-... even if it isn't really clear, you have a graph that show you a typical year on a french reactor, and load followinf the german reactors used to do over a day.
  - throw0101c 2y ago
    > Nuclear reactors are already very cost ineffective when used as baseload. Ontario, Canada would disagree with you: nuclear is 10.1¢/kWh, hydro is 6.2¢, (methane/natural) gas is 11.4¢; see Table 2: * https://www.oeb.ca/sites/default/files/rpp-price-report-20231019.pdf https://www.oeb.ca/sites/default/files/rpp-price-report-2023... Of course hydro-electric dams typically flood many hectares of land for the reservoir. The current ones are getting refurbished: * https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/niagara-ontario-power-generation-sir-adam-beck-refurbish-1.7174267 https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/niagara-ontario-power... Ontario's nuclear fleet are also in the middle of a bunch of refurbs: * https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-nuclear-power-pickering-refurbishment-electricity-1.7098524 https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-nuclear-power... Some of which are finished: * https://www.opg.com/releases/opg-celebrates-the-early-completion-of-darlington-unit-3/ https://www.opg.com/releases/opg-celebrates-the-early-comple... Live data on Ontario's grid: * https://ieso.ca/power-data https://ieso.ca/power-data § "Supply" tab

dmurray 2y ago

Let's see: The line can't just go a few metres across the border. Let's say it connects Dortmund, in the German industrial heartland on the French side of the country, with Chooz, the site of a nuclear plant near the German border. French nuclear plants are evenly distributed around the country [0], so that should be a reasonable choice. That's 250 km. High voltage transmission costs around €2m/km to build [1] and carries around 2 GW of power [2]. So your line costs €500m to build and makes €13 x 2000 = €26,000 an hour and pays for itself after 20,000 hours or three years. You might reasonably say you wouldn't expect to capture all of the €13 per MWh in arbitrage profits, and perhaps this disparity was a short-lived aberration. But actually it's not: electricity futures in France are priced €25 cheaper than their equivalent contracts in Germany [3], so you could reasonably expect to capture a good portion of that - if you split the surplus between you, the consumer and the producer you can still get €9. Of course, one problem with this free money is that your competitors are already doing it. The gap is expected to narrow over time thanks to interconnectors like this, increased generation in Germany, and French nuclear plants going out of service [3]. Still, with increasing electrification of the energy market, this kind of power transmission seems like a good business to be in and a good investment for national governments and grid operators. [0] https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Map-of-French-nuclear-power-plants-30_fig1_308513695 https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Map-of-French-nuclear-po... [1] https://www.researchgate.net/publication/358793859_Cost_of_energy_infrastructure_in_Europe_and_Austria_electricity_gas_oil_and_heat https://www.researchgate.net/publication/358793859_Cost_of_e... [2] https://web.ecs.baylor.edu/faculty/grady/_13_EE392J_2_Spring11_AEP_Transmission_Facts.pdf https://web.ecs.baylor.edu/faculty/grady/_13_EE392J_2_Spring... [3] https://montelnews.com/news/e15ef79e-2905-41ca-9124-165d74699be9/franco-german-power-price-gap-is-here-to-stay-analysts https://montelnews.com/news/e15ef79e-2905-41ca-9124-165d7469...

jandrese 2y ago
In general if the incentives are already aligned to solve a problem I don't worry about the problem. It is likely to solve itself without any intervention.
- dmurray 2y ago