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It's extremely unlikely that your kid will die in a school shooting. > Address the root cause It would still be the case that sometimes children die in freak

It's extremely unlikely that your kid will die in a school shooting. > Address the root cause It would still be the case that sometimes children die in freak ultra-low-probability events, even if there were zero school shootings.

kelseyfrog 2y ago
We prepare for unlikely events all the time. Impact is another metric that we respond to. I simply multiply the two together.
- tivert 2y ago
  > We prepare for unlikely events all the time. Impact is another metric that we respond to. I simply multiply the two together. But we don't design our lives around those unlikely events. Nuclear war is extremely serious, but extremely unlikely in the short term. By you logic, we should all be living in fallout shelters basically all the time, just in case.
  - School-Cotton 2y ago
    To reinforce your point, I think any given person is much, much more likely to die due to nuclear war than in a school shooting.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
- amelius 2y ago
  If you feel that the last number is infinite, then the outcome of this computation is not going to be surprising.
- vundercind 2y ago
  It’s extremely unlikely a given kid will be present at all during any kind of shooting at school, the vast majority of which aren’t indiscriminate killings and which may not involve students or staff at all (a shooting that just happens to take place with at least one involved party standing on school property)—over all 13 years of k-12 school. I ran the numbers and it was firmly in “not even worth a thought” territory. I cast the net of the definition of “school shooting” as wide as remotely reasonable, and made the criterion present at the building for, not hurt or killed, and it was still not worth worrying about. The odds are even better in the kinds of schools HNers are likely to send their kids to, since a ton of those shootings are drug- and/or gang-related.

kelseyfrog 2y ago

We prepare for unlikely events all the time. Impact is another metric that we respond to. I simply multiply the two together.

tivert 2y ago
> We prepare for unlikely events all the time. Impact is another metric that we respond to. I simply multiply the two together. But we don't design our lives around those unlikely events. Nuclear war is extremely serious, but extremely unlikely in the short term. By you logic, we should all be living in fallout shelters basically all the time, just in case.
- School-Cotton 2y ago
  To reinforce your point, I think any given person is much, much more likely to die due to nuclear war than in a school shooting.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
amelius 2y ago
If you feel that the last number is infinite, then the outcome of this computation is not going to be surprising.
vundercind 2y ago
It’s extremely unlikely a given kid will be present at all during any kind of shooting at school, the vast majority of which aren’t indiscriminate killings and which may not involve students or staff at all (a shooting that just happens to take place with at least one involved party standing on school property)—over all 13 years of k-12 school. I ran the numbers and it was firmly in “not even worth a thought” territory. I cast the net of the definition of “school shooting” as wide as remotely reasonable, and made the criterion present at the building for, not hurt or killed, and it was still not worth worrying about. The odds are even better in the kinds of schools HNers are likely to send their kids to, since a ton of those shootings are drug- and/or gang-related.