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The super efficient ones are the panels they send to space. This is just like with chips, all about yields and price/performance. I would not hold your breath

The super efficient ones are the panels they send to space. This is just like with chips, all about yields and price/performance. I would not hold your breath for the typical consumer panel to improve much beyond 20%-25% any time soon sadly. It does generate a lot of hopeful breathless articles which rubs me the wrong way. It is important to stay realistic in the search for solutions. Solar is already great and cheap and there are lot more wins possible in the actual deployment as most of the cost is now overheads, bureaucracy, labour, 'etc.

GlibMonkeyDeath 2y ago
It's not a breathless article - these advances are quite doable from an engineering standpoint (and going from 20-->25% is a HUGE deal - that directly reduces the number of panels needed, and so directly reduces overhead and labor.) The more exotic designs which often are the subject of breathless articles (e.g. perovskite https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perovskite_solar_cell https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perovskite_solar_cell or other multi-junction cells) can get greater efficiencies (like up to 40% for quad junction) but are a lot more expensive from a lifetime cost perspective (they don't last nearly as long as silicon junctions and are much more expensive to produce.)
- ziggy_star 2y ago
  I will of course happily buy a 25% panel as soon as it is on the market if the price per watt for the total install is not soaked up by a multitude of other factors. When can I expect that to be?
- IshKebab 2y ago
  I don't know if it's that huge of a deal. The main challenges of solar are not the number of panels now. The incremental cost of installing an extra panel is quite low. The biggest challenges are storage, and - in the UK at least - nimbyism. (Yes people really object to solar panels in fields.) The other thing I would say is that the software for solar inverters is way behind where it could be. You could easily get a 10% improvement just by making them smarter - e.g. using time series prediction, day ahead pricing, etc. Unfortunately they're stuck in the stone ages. I have a QCells inverter (rebranded Solax) - do not buy btw - and they directly told me they are not interested in any of this smart stuff. They also do automatic firmware updates with no opt-out and no notification of changes. And the updates include removing features. Do not buy QCells solar! (Hopefully Google finds this.)
  - jpgvm 2y ago
    IMO with solar it makes the most sense to stick to high volume Chinese stuff. Longi/Jinko/Trina/CanadianSolar/whatever for panels and Deye for inverters. The Deye stuff is particularly good because of aforementioned smart features, especially if you are off-grid or operate on crappy rural power. My favourite feature is called peak-shaving where it uses the battery to supplement said crappy rural power or a generator that is provisioned for average load instead of peak. I haven't found inverters with similar features and configurability anywhere else thus far.
  - justahuman74 2y ago
    Lots of people have limited roof space that isn't in shade for parts of the day. If we're able to cheaply over-provision the panels on the roof then that mean less reliance on the grid (if you use batteries)
dogma1138 2y ago
That’s not very correct the new ISS solar panels for example have a 12% efficiency they are optimized for longevity and weight. The relatively high efficiency figures often touted for some spacecraft panels especially in low earth orbit don’t compare apples to apples as they include the additional 70-80% solar radiation that isn’t absorbed, reflected or scattered by the atmosphere. There are some spacecraft that do use multi-junction cells with very high efficiency however those are ones which are sent far into the outer solar system like Dawn and Juno.

GlibMonkeyDeath 2y ago

It's not a breathless article - these advances are quite doable from an engineering standpoint (and going from 20-->25% is a HUGE deal - that directly reduces the number of panels needed, and so directly reduces overhead and labor.) The more exotic designs which often are the subject of breathless articles (e.g. perovskite https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perovskite_solar_cell https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perovskite_solar_cell or other multi-junction cells) can get greater efficiencies (like up to 40% for quad junction) but are a lot more expensive from a lifetime cost perspective (they don't last nearly as long as silicon junctions and are much more expensive to produce.)

ziggy_star 2y ago
I will of course happily buy a 25% panel as soon as it is on the market if the price per watt for the total install is not soaked up by a multitude of other factors. When can I expect that to be?
IshKebab 2y ago
I don't know if it's that huge of a deal. The main challenges of solar are not the number of panels now. The incremental cost of installing an extra panel is quite low. The biggest challenges are storage, and - in the UK at least - nimbyism. (Yes people really object to solar panels in fields.) The other thing I would say is that the software for solar inverters is way behind where it could be. You could easily get a 10% improvement just by making them smarter - e.g. using time series prediction, day ahead pricing, etc. Unfortunately they're stuck in the stone ages. I have a QCells inverter (rebranded Solax) - do not buy btw - and they directly told me they are not interested in any of this smart stuff. They also do automatic firmware updates with no opt-out and no notification of changes. And the updates include removing features. Do not buy QCells solar! (Hopefully Google finds this.)
- jpgvm 2y ago
  IMO with solar it makes the most sense to stick to high volume Chinese stuff. Longi/Jinko/Trina/CanadianSolar/whatever for panels and Deye for inverters. The Deye stuff is particularly good because of aforementioned smart features, especially if you are off-grid or operate on crappy rural power. My favourite feature is called peak-shaving where it uses the battery to supplement said crappy rural power or a generator that is provisioned for average load instead of peak. I haven't found inverters with similar features and configurability anywhere else thus far.
- justahuman74 2y ago
  Lots of people have limited roof space that isn't in shade for parts of the day. If we're able to cheaply over-provision the panels on the roof then that mean less reliance on the grid (if you use batteries)

dogma1138 2y ago

That’s not very correct the new ISS solar panels for example have a 12% efficiency they are optimized for longevity and weight. The relatively high efficiency figures often touted for some spacecraft panels especially in low earth orbit don’t compare apples to apples as they include the additional 70-80% solar radiation that isn’t absorbed, reflected or scattered by the atmosphere. There are some spacecraft that do use multi-junction cells with very high efficiency however those are ones which are sent far into the outer solar system like Dawn and Juno.