4 ms·

And please keep in mind that this is pretty much in the optimal settings for FSD: great weather, huge streets, everything is as "car friendly" as it gets. I'd l

by deng 2y ago

And please keep in mind that this is pretty much in the optimal settings for FSD: great weather, huge streets, everything is as "car friendly" as it gets. I'd like to see FSD navigating an old Italian city, there's just no way. Even in car-friendly Germany you very often have streets with side-parking, which are too narrow to fit two cars, you need to communicate with oncoming cars, for instance by waving or flashing your headlights, swerve into free spaces on the side to let other cars go through, watch out for cyclists overtaking you from both sides, etc. And this is not even mentioning the weather... So this robotaxi thing might eventually work in some US cities, but pretty much nowhere else.

bob1029 2y ago
My neighborhood has the effectively one-way street thing going on. FSD would be a total clown show in here. Tesla would have to add some way to determine the velocity of the oncoming traffic around a 90 degree bend while dealing with extremely limited visibility due to seasonal foliage. They would also have to add a way to factor in the historical behavior of these cars over time. For example, I know the guy who drives the blue Tundra is kind of pokey, so I speed up a bit to clear the contention first. The more compelling scenario might be the one where I know the white Mercedes SUV has an extremely aggressive driver, so I'll prefer to wait on them to preserve the peace.
- deng 2y ago
  Yes, what is also important is that in many cities you often need to drive with a bit of... let's say "confidence", otherwise you will never leave your current spot. When you try to enter a busy street, you sometimes JUST NEED TO GO, trusting the oncoming traffic will slow down if needed. Sometimes a nice person will flash headlights to let you know it's OK, but I'm pretty sure FSD will not be able to notice that... Also, even in rule-abiding Germany, some traffic laws are seen more relaxed than others. For instance, the law says that at a stop sign, you need to come to a full stop, but you will see that most drivers don't do that but just drive very slowly (if that...). Likewise, the law says to keep 1,50m distance from bikes and motorcycles, but in the above mentioned narrow streets, that would also often mean that you will not move at all for a long time. I would guess that FSD would need to abide by traffic laws just for regulatory purposes, and that would make you look like an idiot in many cities... That's not even to speak of countries where traffic laws in general are more like suggestions...
  - zelphirkalt 2y ago
    Imagine if you sit in a self driving taxi and need to get somewhere and the longer the ride takes, the higher the price for it. Then the taxi not really getting anywhere fast.
    - throwup238 2y ago
      All while you have to sit there with personalized ads by Google, except of course it’ll be broken and you’ll get nothing but Cialis commercials.
  - DennisP 2y ago
    FSD already understands some human gestures, and it learns this stuff by seeing how human drivers do things. Understanding a headlight flash doesn't seem like a big ask. And recently, the biggest complain from FSD users was that it drove a little too aggressively. Because it copies human drivers, FSD actually was doing slow rolling stops for a while. Then people freaked out and pretended that was super unsafe, and the government made them do full stops.
    - deng 2y ago
      But that's exactly the point: there's no general rule for this kind of thing, it depends on the concrete situation. There are definitely stop signs where you need to do a full stop because you cannot see any oncoming traffic. Basically: it's OK to do rolling stops until it isn't. Same goes for flashing headlights, these can mean different things, depending on the situation. It can mean: I see you, feel free to drive. It can also mean: what the hell are you doing? Or: you left your laptop on the car roof.
      - DennisP 2y ago
        Learning that sort of context is what neural nets are good at. The whole point is that none of this is hardcoded; the AI just learns what humans do in similar situations. At the point they're not even hand-labeling anything. The only input is video. Flashing headlights can be ambiguous for humans too. There have been plenty of times when someone flashed lights at me and I had no idea why.
Barrin92 2y ago
Yes the way humans negotiate with others in a split second just through eye contact or the way they break, or just one minor gesture of a hand is astonishing. People on the AI hype train should literally sit and write down how much complex problem solving through communication happens when two drivers engage non verbally. Not only is self driving a mess on just a road level in a city like Deli or Rome, when they actually get to the numbers where communication with humans becomes vital because they're not just a blip in the traffic you're in for a whole other hell of problems to solve.
devnull3 2y ago
> old Italian city Try traffic in India [1][2] If it were a game, then India will be the last boss fight in ultra-hard mode. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KnPiP9PkLAs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KnPiP9PkLAs [2] https://youtu.be/WC2FUEmKEu8?t=412 https://youtu.be/WC2FUEmKEu8?t=412
- yread 2y ago
  Do you mean like this? https://youtu.be/4EJLmIC9cJE?si=gincFsBUzYwQmtIs https://youtu.be/4EJLmIC9cJE?si=gincFsBUzYwQmtIs
  - oefrha 2y ago
    I see a good number of bikes in the video but no moving car for the most part, and in the few instances of an oncoming car, IIRC the other car was yielding, the auto-driving car just stayed its path, maybe slowed a bit. No cutting, no weaving, no squeezing, no nothing. Not the kind of “dense traffic” I have in mind. I would call it light-to-no traffic on poor roads.
- deng 2y ago
  It already fails in Manhattan. I know that by US standards, the traffic in Manhattan is already considered chaos, but it's usually pretty tame compared to other countries. There are these videos by this HUGE Tesla fanboy, just look here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vo_hC84OSwg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vo_hC84OSwg where at 8:20 it fails to properly deal with a cop car and the fanboy complains that the cop did not obey traffic laws (good luck arguing that when you make him do an emergency stop...). It's even worse in https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vL9pKytV94I https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vL9pKytV94I FSD consistently has problems with pedestrians in NY, who of course will just walk also on a red light if you hesitate during turning. US people might consider this "chaos", but it's perfectly normal behavior in many countries, where a red light for pedestrians is more a suggestion than a rule...
  - throw0101d 2y ago
    > where at 8:20 it fails to properly deal with a cop car and the fanboy complains that the cop did not obey traffic laws More specifically, the cop car had its lights on and emergency siren going, so presumably was trying to respond to a call, in which case it is the responsibility of other vehicles to get out of the cop's way. > US people might consider this "chaos", but it's perfectly normal behavior in many countries, where a red light for pedestrians is more a suggestion than a rule... Also worth nothing the "jaywalking" is not a thing in many jurisdictions: * https://www.vox.com/2015/1/15/7551873/jaywalking-history https://www.vox.com/2015/1/15/7551873/jaywalking-history * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jaywalking https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jaywalking
m463 2y ago
I would imagine the optimal settings would be open freeways with multiple lanes. (does fsd do that or is that freeway autopilot)

by deng 2y ago

bob1029 2y ago

My neighborhood has the effectively one-way street thing going on. FSD would be a total clown show in here. Tesla would have to add some way to determine the velocity of the oncoming traffic around a 90 degree bend while dealing with extremely limited visibility due to seasonal foliage. They would also have to add a way to factor in the historical behavior of these cars over time. For example, I know the guy who drives the blue Tundra is kind of pokey, so I speed up a bit to clear the contention first. The more compelling scenario might be the one where I know the white Mercedes SUV has an extremely aggressive driver, so I'll prefer to wait on them to preserve the peace.

deng 2y ago
Yes, what is also important is that in many cities you often need to drive with a bit of... let's say "confidence", otherwise you will never leave your current spot. When you try to enter a busy street, you sometimes JUST NEED TO GO, trusting the oncoming traffic will slow down if needed. Sometimes a nice person will flash headlights to let you know it's OK, but I'm pretty sure FSD will not be able to notice that... Also, even in rule-abiding Germany, some traffic laws are seen more relaxed than others. For instance, the law says that at a stop sign, you need to come to a full stop, but you will see that most drivers don't do that but just drive very slowly (if that...). Likewise, the law says to keep 1,50m distance from bikes and motorcycles, but in the above mentioned narrow streets, that would also often mean that you will not move at all for a long time. I would guess that FSD would need to abide by traffic laws just for regulatory purposes, and that would make you look like an idiot in many cities... That's not even to speak of countries where traffic laws in general are more like suggestions...
- zelphirkalt 2y ago
  Imagine if you sit in a self driving taxi and need to get somewhere and the longer the ride takes, the higher the price for it. Then the taxi not really getting anywhere fast.
  - throwup238 2y ago
    All while you have to sit there with personalized ads by Google, except of course it’ll be broken and you’ll get nothing but Cialis commercials.
- DennisP 2y ago
  FSD already understands some human gestures, and it learns this stuff by seeing how human drivers do things. Understanding a headlight flash doesn't seem like a big ask. And recently, the biggest complain from FSD users was that it drove a little too aggressively. Because it copies human drivers, FSD actually was doing slow rolling stops for a while. Then people freaked out and pretended that was super unsafe, and the government made them do full stops.
  - deng 2y ago
    But that's exactly the point: there's no general rule for this kind of thing, it depends on the concrete situation. There are definitely stop signs where you need to do a full stop because you cannot see any oncoming traffic. Basically: it's OK to do rolling stops until it isn't. Same goes for flashing headlights, these can mean different things, depending on the situation. It can mean: I see you, feel free to drive. It can also mean: what the hell are you doing? Or: you left your laptop on the car roof.
    - DennisP 2y ago
      Learning that sort of context is what neural nets are good at. The whole point is that none of this is hardcoded; the AI just learns what humans do in similar situations. At the point they're not even hand-labeling anything. The only input is video. Flashing headlights can be ambiguous for humans too. There have been plenty of times when someone flashed lights at me and I had no idea why.

Barrin92 2y ago

Yes the way humans negotiate with others in a split second just through eye contact or the way they break, or just one minor gesture of a hand is astonishing. People on the AI hype train should literally sit and write down how much complex problem solving through communication happens when two drivers engage non verbally. Not only is self driving a mess on just a road level in a city like Deli or Rome, when they actually get to the numbers where communication with humans becomes vital because they're not just a blip in the traffic you're in for a whole other hell of problems to solve.

devnull3 2y ago

> old Italian city Try traffic in India [1][2] If it were a game, then India will be the last boss fight in ultra-hard mode. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KnPiP9PkLAs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KnPiP9PkLAs [2] https://youtu.be/WC2FUEmKEu8?t=412 https://youtu.be/WC2FUEmKEu8?t=412

yread 2y ago
Do you mean like this? https://youtu.be/4EJLmIC9cJE?si=gincFsBUzYwQmtIs https://youtu.be/4EJLmIC9cJE?si=gincFsBUzYwQmtIs
- oefrha 2y ago
  I see a good number of bikes in the video but no moving car for the most part, and in the few instances of an oncoming car, IIRC the other car was yielding, the auto-driving car just stayed its path, maybe slowed a bit. No cutting, no weaving, no squeezing, no nothing. Not the kind of “dense traffic” I have in mind. I would call it light-to-no traffic on poor roads.
deng 2y ago
It already fails in Manhattan. I know that by US standards, the traffic in Manhattan is already considered chaos, but it's usually pretty tame compared to other countries. There are these videos by this HUGE Tesla fanboy, just look here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vo_hC84OSwg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vo_hC84OSwg where at 8:20 it fails to properly deal with a cop car and the fanboy complains that the cop did not obey traffic laws (good luck arguing that when you make him do an emergency stop...). It's even worse in https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vL9pKytV94I https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vL9pKytV94I FSD consistently has problems with pedestrians in NY, who of course will just walk also on a red light if you hesitate during turning. US people might consider this "chaos", but it's perfectly normal behavior in many countries, where a red light for pedestrians is more a suggestion than a rule...
- throw0101d 2y ago
  > where at 8:20 it fails to properly deal with a cop car and the fanboy complains that the cop did not obey traffic laws More specifically, the cop car had its lights on and emergency siren going, so presumably was trying to respond to a call, in which case it is the responsibility of other vehicles to get out of the cop's way. > US people might consider this "chaos", but it's perfectly normal behavior in many countries, where a red light for pedestrians is more a suggestion than a rule... Also worth nothing the "jaywalking" is not a thing in many jurisdictions: * https://www.vox.com/2015/1/15/7551873/jaywalking-history https://www.vox.com/2015/1/15/7551873/jaywalking-history * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jaywalking https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jaywalking

m463 2y ago

I would imagine the optimal settings would be open freeways with multiple lanes. (does fsd do that or is that freeway autopilot)