4 ms·
> The effectiveness of search goes hand-in-hand with quality of the value function. But today, value functions are incredibly domain-specific, and there is weak
by cowpig 2y ago
> The effectiveness of search goes hand-in-hand with quality of the value function. But today, value functions are incredibly domain-specific, and there is weak or no current evidence (as far as I know) that we can make value functions that generalize well to new domains.
Do you believe that there will be a "general AI" breakthrough? I feel as though you have expressed the reason I am so skeptical of all these AI researchers who believe we are on the cusp of it (what "general AI" means exactly never seems to be very well-defined)
- mxwsn 2y agoI think capitalistic pressures favor narrow superhuman AI over general AI. I wrote on this two years ago: https://argmax.blog/posts/agi-capitalism/ https://argmax.blog/posts/agi-capitalism/ Since I wrote about this, I would say that OpenAI's directional struggles are some confirmation of my hypothesis. summary: I believe that AGI is possible but will take multiple unknown breakthroughs on an unknown timeline, but most likely requires long-term concerted effort with much less immediate payoff than pursuing narrow superhuman AI, such that serious efforts at AGI is not incentivized much in capitalism.
- shrimp_emoji 2y agoBut I thought the history of capitalism is an invasion from the future by an artificial intelligence that must assemble itself entirely from its enemy’s resources. NB: I agree; I think AGI will first be achieved with genetic engineering, which is a path of way lesser resistance than using silicon hardware (which is probably a century plus off at the minimum from being powerful enough to emulate a human brain).