4 ms·

See, they don't actually block anybody but themselves. The Russians simply get their stuff from others.

by mrtksn 2y ago

JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> Russians simply get their stuff from others With less variety, slower and at higher cost [1]. And they’re not getting much of the high-tech kit [2]. (The Germans also had blockade runners. Everyone does. That doesn’t make a blockade less onerous.) Russian natural gas sales have also cratered; Beijing is leveraging its position as a monopsony to demand price concessions [3]. [1] https://www.csis.org/analysis/out-stock-assessing-impact-sanctions-russias-defense-industry https://www.csis.org/analysis/out-stock-assessing-impact-san... [2] https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/the-impact-of-semiconductor-sanctions-on-russia/#:~:text=Since%20the,chance%20that https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/the-impact-of-s... [3] https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-china-gas-pipeline-deal-stalls-over-beijings-price-demands-ft-2024-06-02/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-china-gas-pip...
- mrtksn 2y ago
  Atta boy for Beijing but Russians don't seem to be having trouble running this war at all. They still get their precision machinery and simply eat M instead of McDonalds. Stuff getting expensive is no different than the west really. Slightly worse living standards can destroy the western democracies as they shift to extremist politics but has no effect on Russian leadership.
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > Russians don't seem to be having trouble running this war at all They’re fighting like a ragtag African army, not a modern combined-arms one. Their latest air-defence systems which they once peddled for half a billion dollars each are being taken out by old American kit. The front lines barely budged while Ukraine was rationing arms; Russia is quite literally liquidating its economy and demography for Pyrrhic gains. We are watching the voluntary disassembly of a regional power. > Stuff getting expensive is no different than the west There is a massive difference between eggs becoming more expensive and not being able to access modern chip fabrication. > Slightly worse living standards can destroy the western democracies as they shift to extremist politics but has no effect on Russian leadership This was the Nazis’ hypothesis. In the end, Britain was able to shift to a more-extreme war footing earlier and more forcefully. Putin has made this claim, but goes out of his way to insulate the Moscow elite from the effects of the war. The history of democracies in war is generally that they’re far more resilient than strongmen.
    - mrtksn 2y ago
      I like your optimism but this time around "the West" is a de-industrialized society and if China stops selling tiny electric motors the drone warfare will be lost as the west can't produce this stuff. Everything is made in China, the factories are there even if the west holds rights and patents etc. The west is services heavy but there's little this expertise can do anything about blowing up people and vehicles.
      - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
        > this time around "the West" is a de-industrialized society American manufacturing is at an all-time high [1]. Are you conflating manufacturing employment with power? > if China stops selling tiny electric motors the drone warfare will be lost as the west can't produce this stuff Uh, I’m fairly deep into drone manufacturing in America. This is multi-level nonsense. One: you’re confusing quadcopters with military drones, whose motors aren’t tiny and often aren’t motors but turbofans. Two: we produce lots of electric motors and turbofans. In the case of the former, not at China’s scale, though far more autonomously (and thus easier to scale up if needed). In the case of the latter, far better and similarly quickly after adjusting for effective yield. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO/ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO/
        mrtksn 2y ago
        All time high as of producing small amount of very expensive stuff won't be good if can't produce huge amount of basic stuff. Is USA capable of producing huge number of electric motors? Other "not profitable enough to produce here" stuff? Remember how the west wasn't able to deliver enough artillery shells simply because it can't produce enough? Now it might be ramping up in the shells department but there's so many things that the west can't make anymore in large quantities.
        JumpCrisscross 2y ago
        > All time high as of producing small amount of very expensive stuff You’ve made a series of wrong, uncited claims. This is another one. > Is USA capable of producing huge number of electric motors? Siemens is the world’s largest manufacturer of electric motors. They have massive plants in Germany, Ohio and Missouri [1][2]. Toshiba, the second largest, in Houston and Canada [3]. ABB, third largest, with plants across 8 states, directed from Arkansas, as well as in India [4]. China has cheaper labour and laxer environmental laws than America. But we have some of the world’s cheapest and most-abundant energy. Motor manufacturing isn’t dirty or labour intensive. I’m not sure where your obsession with electric motors comes from, because it’s an example of Allied manufacturing vastly outstripping China. > Remember how the west wasn't able to deliver enough artillery shells simply because it can't produce enough? Yes, in part because we want to maintain reserves. We matched Ukraine’s military budget to the entirety of Russia’s [5]. As a side project. [1] https://www.siemens.com/us/en/company/about/siemens-in-the-usa/ohio.html https://www.siemens.com/us/en/company/about/siemens-in-the-u... [2] https://www.siemens.com/us/en/products/drives/electric-motors/abovenema-motors/large-motor-services.html https://www.siemens.com/us/en/products/drives/electric-motor... [3] https://www.toshiba.com/tic/inside-toshiba/manufacturing-services https://www.toshiba.com/tic/inside-toshiba/manufacturing-ser... [4] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/ABB_Motors_and_Mechanical https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/ABB_Motors_and_Mechanical [5] https://www.euractiv.com/section/defence-and-security/news/western-military-aid-to-ukraine-closes-spending-gap-with-russia-sipri-report/ https://www.euractiv.com/section/defence-and-security/news/w...
  - lawn 2y ago
    > Atta boy for Beijing but Russians don't seem to be having trouble running this war at all. You're really not looking closely. In the beginning they were invading with tanks. Now they send Chinese golf carts and mopeds to the front to power the meat grinder.
    - mrtksn 2y ago
      True but they are far from running out of this stuff(soldiers of any kind with any equipment) before the west. Russians have criminal level of tolerance for lost lives.
      - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
        > they are far from running out of this stuff(soldiers of any kind with any equipment) before the west They destroyed their veterans in the opening gambit. Mowing down unequipped numpties at staggering loss ratios isn’t a problem for Kyiv so long as its ammunition supplies are assured. > Russians have criminal level of tolerance for lost lives Russia is an empire. Moscow isn’t sending its children to the front, it’s sending Siberians and Chechens. The mobilisation was politically difficult for Putin and damaging to Russia. There aren’t that many more Putin can pull off while retaining the public’s favour.
        mrtksn 2y ago
        I know, it's a brilliant system: Send your soldiers to force unarmed men in the other end of your empire go fight for you in Ukraine. I've seen some stats showing that now %10 of military age Tuva people fought in Ukraine. In Moscow that was about %0.2. Russia has a moat here, Ukraine and the West can't pull anything of that sort. Also, the mentality of Russian people or slavs in general is very prone to conspiratorial thinking. They are also very unambitious, only motivated by ideas about glory and don't make long term life plans and assume the role given to them. Its very weird, the western mindset can't comprehend this. I've been risen in a slavic communist country that used to be aligned with USSR. To this day I have relatives who are offended by the west despite living in EU, having their life quality depended on the success of EU but root for Russia to win and "show the arrogant west who's the boss". So I don't think that Putin will have human resources problem ever, as long as maintains his image of the tough guy who teaches the west a lesson. Russophilia is also widespread in many countries, even in EU.
  - orwin 2y ago
    I really, really dislike the "extremist" politics discourse, especially when it's from a position created by a mix of Atlas network [1] talking points and original radical centrism, al merging together a position historically French know pretty well, the extreme center [1]. As long as the executive power do not try to subvert the legislative, judicial or, in a more limited way, informative power, we can't call "extremist politics". Which is why i reject the idea that reactionnaries like the RN in France are still fascists as their rethoric against judges and informative power is really tame (they could be lying, making them cryptofascists, but this is subject to personal beliefs and not facts). [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlas_Network https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlas_Network [1]"L'Extrême Centre ou le poison français : 1789-2019", Pierre Senna
ajuc 2y ago
With markup. That slows down the economy and makes everything more expansive. Whcih makes the economy not competetive on the international market. Keep it that way for a few decades and you get North Korea.
- mrtksn 2y ago
  A few decades of war isn't helping anybody. Unlike the Russia, western politics shift because everything in the west is also getting expensive. Europe has seen this already.
  - pmontra 2y ago
    Western politics always shifted because nobody is particularly good at it. After 4 or 5 years or small multiples of them the opposition parties take over, then go back to opposition. New parties are born sometimes and take over or don't. The overall picture is a USA aligned continent since 1945 or the 90s according to the country.
  - ajuc 2y ago
    Inflation in EU is like 2%?
    - mrtksn 2y ago
      Sure that's the official figure but people are annoyed that everything is %50 to %200 more expensive compared to 2-3 years ago without having their income growing at the same pace. This is because people feel the inflation different ways because different classes consume different stuff and the average doesn't mean much when you have your rent doubled and the food becoming %50 more expensive.
      - ajuc 2y ago
        If you believe the figures from totalitarian dictatorships but think that EU figures are faked I really can't help you :)

See, they don't actually block anybody but themselves. The Russians simply get their stuff from others.

by mrtksn 2y ago

See, they don't actually block anybody but themselves. The Russians simply get their stuff from others.

> Russians simply get their stuff from others With less variety, slower and at higher cost [1]. And they’re not getting much of the high-tech kit [2]. (The Germans also had blockade runners. Everyone does. That doesn’t make a blockade less onerous.) Russian natural gas sales have also cratered; Beijing is leveraging its position as a monopsony to demand price concessions [3]. [1] https://www.csis.org/analysis/out-stock-assessing-impact-sanctions-russias-defense-industry https://www.csis.org/analysis/out-stock-assessing-impact-san... [2] https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/the-impact-of-semiconductor-sanctions-on-russia/#:~:text=Since%20the,chance%20that https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/the-impact-of-s... [3] https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-china-gas-pipeline-deal-stalls-over-beijings-price-demands-ft-2024-06-02/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-china-gas-pip...

mrtksn 2y ago
Atta boy for Beijing but Russians don't seem to be having trouble running this war at all. They still get their precision machinery and simply eat M instead of McDonalds. Stuff getting expensive is no different than the west really. Slightly worse living standards can destroy the western democracies as they shift to extremist politics but has no effect on Russian leadership.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > Russians don't seem to be having trouble running this war at all They’re fighting like a ragtag African army, not a modern combined-arms one. Their latest air-defence systems which they once peddled for half a billion dollars each are being taken out by old American kit. The front lines barely budged while Ukraine was rationing arms; Russia is quite literally liquidating its economy and demography for Pyrrhic gains. We are watching the voluntary disassembly of a regional power. > Stuff getting expensive is no different than the west There is a massive difference between eggs becoming more expensive and not being able to access modern chip fabrication. > Slightly worse living standards can destroy the western democracies as they shift to extremist politics but has no effect on Russian leadership This was the Nazis’ hypothesis. In the end, Britain was able to shift to a more-extreme war footing earlier and more forcefully. Putin has made this claim, but goes out of his way to insulate the Moscow elite from the effects of the war. The history of democracies in war is generally that they’re far more resilient than strongmen.
  - mrtksn 2y ago
    I like your optimism but this time around "the West" is a de-industrialized society and if China stops selling tiny electric motors the drone warfare will be lost as the west can't produce this stuff. Everything is made in China, the factories are there even if the west holds rights and patents etc. The west is services heavy but there's little this expertise can do anything about blowing up people and vehicles.
    - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
      > this time around "the West" is a de-industrialized society American manufacturing is at an all-time high [1]. Are you conflating manufacturing employment with power? > if China stops selling tiny electric motors the drone warfare will be lost as the west can't produce this stuff Uh, I’m fairly deep into drone manufacturing in America. This is multi-level nonsense. One: you’re confusing quadcopters with military drones, whose motors aren’t tiny and often aren’t motors but turbofans. Two: we produce lots of electric motors and turbofans. In the case of the former, not at China’s scale, though far more autonomously (and thus easier to scale up if needed). In the case of the latter, far better and similarly quickly after adjusting for effective yield. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO/ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO/
      - mrtksn 2y ago
        All time high as of producing small amount of very expensive stuff won't be good if can't produce huge amount of basic stuff. Is USA capable of producing huge number of electric motors? Other "not profitable enough to produce here" stuff? Remember how the west wasn't able to deliver enough artillery shells simply because it can't produce enough? Now it might be ramping up in the shells department but there's so many things that the west can't make anymore in large quantities.
        JumpCrisscross 2y ago
        > All time high as of producing small amount of very expensive stuff You’ve made a series of wrong, uncited claims. This is another one. > Is USA capable of producing huge number of electric motors? Siemens is the world’s largest manufacturer of electric motors. They have massive plants in Germany, Ohio and Missouri [1][2]. Toshiba, the second largest, in Houston and Canada [3]. ABB, third largest, with plants across 8 states, directed from Arkansas, as well as in India [4]. China has cheaper labour and laxer environmental laws than America. But we have some of the world’s cheapest and most-abundant energy. Motor manufacturing isn’t dirty or labour intensive. I’m not sure where your obsession with electric motors comes from, because it’s an example of Allied manufacturing vastly outstripping China. > Remember how the west wasn't able to deliver enough artillery shells simply because it can't produce enough? Yes, in part because we want to maintain reserves. We matched Ukraine’s military budget to the entirety of Russia’s [5]. As a side project. [1] https://www.siemens.com/us/en/company/about/siemens-in-the-usa/ohio.html https://www.siemens.com/us/en/company/about/siemens-in-the-u... [2] https://www.siemens.com/us/en/products/drives/electric-motors/abovenema-motors/large-motor-services.html https://www.siemens.com/us/en/products/drives/electric-motor... [3] https://www.toshiba.com/tic/inside-toshiba/manufacturing-services https://www.toshiba.com/tic/inside-toshiba/manufacturing-ser... [4] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/ABB_Motors_and_Mechanical https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/ABB_Motors_and_Mechanical [5] https://www.euractiv.com/section/defence-and-security/news/western-military-aid-to-ukraine-closes-spending-gap-with-russia-sipri-report/ https://www.euractiv.com/section/defence-and-security/news/w...
- lawn 2y ago
  > Atta boy for Beijing but Russians don't seem to be having trouble running this war at all. You're really not looking closely. In the beginning they were invading with tanks. Now they send Chinese golf carts and mopeds to the front to power the meat grinder.
  - mrtksn 2y ago
    True but they are far from running out of this stuff(soldiers of any kind with any equipment) before the west. Russians have criminal level of tolerance for lost lives.
    - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
      > they are far from running out of this stuff(soldiers of any kind with any equipment) before the west They destroyed their veterans in the opening gambit. Mowing down unequipped numpties at staggering loss ratios isn’t a problem for Kyiv so long as its ammunition supplies are assured. > Russians have criminal level of tolerance for lost lives Russia is an empire. Moscow isn’t sending its children to the front, it’s sending Siberians and Chechens. The mobilisation was politically difficult for Putin and damaging to Russia. There aren’t that many more Putin can pull off while retaining the public’s favour.
      - mrtksn 2y ago
        I know, it's a brilliant system: Send your soldiers to force unarmed men in the other end of your empire go fight for you in Ukraine. I've seen some stats showing that now %10 of military age Tuva people fought in Ukraine. In Moscow that was about %0.2. Russia has a moat here, Ukraine and the West can't pull anything of that sort. Also, the mentality of Russian people or slavs in general is very prone to conspiratorial thinking. They are also very unambitious, only motivated by ideas about glory and don't make long term life plans and assume the role given to them. Its very weird, the western mindset can't comprehend this. I've been risen in a slavic communist country that used to be aligned with USSR. To this day I have relatives who are offended by the west despite living in EU, having their life quality depended on the success of EU but root for Russia to win and "show the arrogant west who's the boss". So I don't think that Putin will have human resources problem ever, as long as maintains his image of the tough guy who teaches the west a lesson. Russophilia is also widespread in many countries, even in EU.
- orwin 2y ago
  I really, really dislike the "extremist" politics discourse, especially when it's from a position created by a mix of Atlas network [1] talking points and original radical centrism, al merging together a position historically French know pretty well, the extreme center [1]. As long as the executive power do not try to subvert the legislative, judicial or, in a more limited way, informative power, we can't call "extremist politics". Which is why i reject the idea that reactionnaries like the RN in France are still fascists as their rethoric against judges and informative power is really tame (they could be lying, making them cryptofascists, but this is subject to personal beliefs and not facts). [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlas_Network https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlas_Network [1]"L'Extrême Centre ou le poison français : 1789-2019", Pierre Senna

ajuc 2y ago

With markup. That slows down the economy and makes everything more expansive. Whcih makes the economy not competetive on the international market. Keep it that way for a few decades and you get North Korea.

mrtksn 2y ago
A few decades of war isn't helping anybody. Unlike the Russia, western politics shift because everything in the west is also getting expensive. Europe has seen this already.
- pmontra 2y ago
  Western politics always shifted because nobody is particularly good at it. After 4 or 5 years or small multiples of them the opposition parties take over, then go back to opposition. New parties are born sometimes and take over or don't. The overall picture is a USA aligned continent since 1945 or the 90s according to the country.
- ajuc 2y ago
  Inflation in EU is like 2%?
  - mrtksn 2y ago
    Sure that's the official figure but people are annoyed that everything is %50 to %200 more expensive compared to 2-3 years ago without having their income growing at the same pace. This is because people feel the inflation different ways because different classes consume different stuff and the average doesn't mean much when you have your rent doubled and the food becoming %50 more expensive.
    - ajuc 2y ago
      If you believe the figures from totalitarian dictatorships but think that EU figures are faked I really can't help you :)