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How isn't "the West" shooting themselves in the feet with these sanctions when Russia is able to get the war stuff through Turkey/Kyrgyzstan etc when not able t

by mrtksn 2y ago

How isn't "the West" shooting themselves in the feet with these sanctions when Russia is able to get the war stuff through Turkey/Kyrgyzstan etc when not able to buy and sell civilians stuff? Also, the Dollar and Euro can have effect on the Russian economy and tracked for intelligence only if they are used. I wonder if this will be considered a great blunder, looking back in few years. Forcing worlds most energy and minerals rich country doing business with most industry rich country, what could go wrong?

JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> How isn't "the west" shooting themselves in the feet with these sanctions Same way Britain wasn’t shooting itself in the foot blockading Nazi Germany, or the West by refusing to trade with the USSR. > Forcing worlds most energy and minerals rich country doing business with most industry rich country, what could go wrong? Post-Soviet Russia as an independent power has been an unmitigated disaster. China is America’s geopolitical rival, but at least it’s rational. Moscow as a Chinese suzerainty is likely a better configuration than it as a sovereign power. (Also, it’s clear China isn’t willing to let its financial system be sanctioned simply to trade with the likes of Russia.)
- mrtksn 2y ago
  See, they don't actually block anybody but themselves. The Russians simply get their stuff from others.
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > Russians simply get their stuff from others With less variety, slower and at higher cost [1]. And they’re not getting much of the high-tech kit [2]. (The Germans also had blockade runners. Everyone does. That doesn’t make a blockade less onerous.) Russian natural gas sales have also cratered; Beijing is leveraging its position as a monopsony to demand price concessions [3]. [1] https://www.csis.org/analysis/out-stock-assessing-impact-sanctions-russias-defense-industry https://www.csis.org/analysis/out-stock-assessing-impact-san... [2] https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/the-impact-of-semiconductor-sanctions-on-russia/#:~:text=Since%20the,chance%20that https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/the-impact-of-s... [3] https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-china-gas-pipeline-deal-stalls-over-beijings-price-demands-ft-2024-06-02/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-china-gas-pip...
    - mrtksn 2y ago
      Atta boy for Beijing but Russians don't seem to be having trouble running this war at all. They still get their precision machinery and simply eat M instead of McDonalds. Stuff getting expensive is no different than the west really. Slightly worse living standards can destroy the western democracies as they shift to extremist politics but has no effect on Russian leadership.
      - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
        > Russians don't seem to be having trouble running this war at all They’re fighting like a ragtag African army, not a modern combined-arms one. Their latest air-defence systems which they once peddled for half a billion dollars each are being taken out by old American kit. The front lines barely budged while Ukraine was rationing arms; Russia is quite literally liquidating its economy and demography for Pyrrhic gains. We are watching the voluntary disassembly of a regional power. > Stuff getting expensive is no different than the west There is a massive difference between eggs becoming more expensive and not being able to access modern chip fabrication. > Slightly worse living standards can destroy the western democracies as they shift to extremist politics but has no effect on Russian leadership This was the Nazis’ hypothesis. In the end, Britain was able to shift to a more-extreme war footing earlier and more forcefully. Putin has made this claim, but goes out of his way to insulate the Moscow elite from the effects of the war. The history of democracies in war is generally that they’re far more resilient than strongmen.
        mrtksn 2y ago
        I like your optimism but this time around "the West" is a de-industrialized society and if China stops selling tiny electric motors the drone warfare will be lost as the west can't produce this stuff. Everything is made in China, the factories are there even if the west holds rights and patents etc. The west is services heavy but there's little this expertise can do anything about blowing up people and vehicles.
        JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  - ajuc 2y ago
    With markup. That slows down the economy and makes everything more expansive. Whcih makes the economy not competetive on the international market. Keep it that way for a few decades and you get North Korea.
    - mrtksn 2y ago
      A few decades of war isn't helping anybody. Unlike the Russia, western politics shift because everything in the west is also getting expensive. Europe has seen this already.
      - pmontra 2y ago
        Western politics always shifted because nobody is particularly good at it. After 4 or 5 years or small multiples of them the opposition parties take over, then go back to opposition. New parties are born sometimes and take over or don't. The overall picture is a USA aligned continent since 1945 or the 90s according to the country.
      - ajuc 2y ago
        Inflation in EU is like 2%?
        mrtksn 2y ago
        Sure that's the official figure but people are annoyed that everything is %50 to %200 more expensive compared to 2-3 years ago without having their income growing at the same pace. This is because people feel the inflation different ways because different classes consume different stuff and the average doesn't mean much when you have your rent doubled and the food becoming %50 more expensive.
        ajuc 2y ago
        If you believe the figures from totalitarian dictatorships but think that EU figures are faked I really can't help you :)
airstrike 2y ago
> How isn't "the West" shooting themselves in the feet with these sanctions when Russia is able to get the war stuff through Turkey/Kyrgyzstan etc when not able to buy and sell civilians stuff? what damage do you really think this does to "the West"? the lack of access to cheap Russian energy is the only thing I can think of, and that's a dependency better resolved now than punted to the future. had Europe never grown dependent on it, we might have entirely prevented the current situation to transpire
- mrtksn 2y ago
  Lack of access to cheap energy is a big one, its shaping the politics and the economy. Also, western brands are losing markets and brand recognition. IMHO the sanctions should have been for military equipment/weapons and precision tooling only and enforced religiously.
  - airstrike 2y ago
    The size of the Russian market is irrelevant for western brands, for all intents and purpose—particularly US ones. Europe could have cheap energy alternatives if they wanted, but they preferred to rely on cheap Russian natural gas, believing them not to be a rogue state. The attempted invasion of Ukraine has made it obvious this was a terrible miscalculation. Arguing that Europe should try to restore the status quo ante bellum is not only foolish, senseless, illogical and irrational but dangerous too. Your profile says you like to argue things that you don't really believe in just to "have a more lively debate". I can only imagine that's what's happening here, because no rational actor would make the sort of concessions to Russia as you argue, particularly after they have proven to be a much, much weaker military power than anticipated.

by mrtksn 2y ago

JumpCrisscross 2y ago

> How isn't "the west" shooting themselves in the feet with these sanctions Same way Britain wasn’t shooting itself in the foot blockading Nazi Germany, or the West by refusing to trade with the USSR. > Forcing worlds most energy and minerals rich country doing business with most industry rich country, what could go wrong? Post-Soviet Russia as an independent power has been an unmitigated disaster. China is America’s geopolitical rival, but at least it’s rational. Moscow as a Chinese suzerainty is likely a better configuration than it as a sovereign power. (Also, it’s clear China isn’t willing to let its financial system be sanctioned simply to trade with the likes of Russia.)

mrtksn 2y ago
See, they don't actually block anybody but themselves. The Russians simply get their stuff from others.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > Russians simply get their stuff from others With less variety, slower and at higher cost [1]. And they’re not getting much of the high-tech kit [2]. (The Germans also had blockade runners. Everyone does. That doesn’t make a blockade less onerous.) Russian natural gas sales have also cratered; Beijing is leveraging its position as a monopsony to demand price concessions [3]. [1] https://www.csis.org/analysis/out-stock-assessing-impact-sanctions-russias-defense-industry https://www.csis.org/analysis/out-stock-assessing-impact-san... [2] https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/the-impact-of-semiconductor-sanctions-on-russia/#:~:text=Since%20the,chance%20that https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/the-impact-of-s... [3] https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-china-gas-pipeline-deal-stalls-over-beijings-price-demands-ft-2024-06-02/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-china-gas-pip...
  - mrtksn 2y ago
    Atta boy for Beijing but Russians don't seem to be having trouble running this war at all. They still get their precision machinery and simply eat M instead of McDonalds. Stuff getting expensive is no different than the west really. Slightly worse living standards can destroy the western democracies as they shift to extremist politics but has no effect on Russian leadership.
    - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
      > Russians don't seem to be having trouble running this war at all They’re fighting like a ragtag African army, not a modern combined-arms one. Their latest air-defence systems which they once peddled for half a billion dollars each are being taken out by old American kit. The front lines barely budged while Ukraine was rationing arms; Russia is quite literally liquidating its economy and demography for Pyrrhic gains. We are watching the voluntary disassembly of a regional power. > Stuff getting expensive is no different than the west There is a massive difference between eggs becoming more expensive and not being able to access modern chip fabrication. > Slightly worse living standards can destroy the western democracies as they shift to extremist politics but has no effect on Russian leadership This was the Nazis’ hypothesis. In the end, Britain was able to shift to a more-extreme war footing earlier and more forcefully. Putin has made this claim, but goes out of his way to insulate the Moscow elite from the effects of the war. The history of democracies in war is generally that they’re far more resilient than strongmen.
      - mrtksn 2y ago
        I like your optimism but this time around "the West" is a de-industrialized society and if China stops selling tiny electric motors the drone warfare will be lost as the west can't produce this stuff. Everything is made in China, the factories are there even if the west holds rights and patents etc. The west is services heavy but there's little this expertise can do anything about blowing up people and vehicles.
        JumpCrisscross 2y ago
- ajuc 2y ago
  With markup. That slows down the economy and makes everything more expansive. Whcih makes the economy not competetive on the international market. Keep it that way for a few decades and you get North Korea.
  - mrtksn 2y ago
    A few decades of war isn't helping anybody. Unlike the Russia, western politics shift because everything in the west is also getting expensive. Europe has seen this already.
    - pmontra 2y ago
      Western politics always shifted because nobody is particularly good at it. After 4 or 5 years or small multiples of them the opposition parties take over, then go back to opposition. New parties are born sometimes and take over or don't. The overall picture is a USA aligned continent since 1945 or the 90s according to the country.
    - ajuc 2y ago
      Inflation in EU is like 2%?
      - mrtksn 2y ago
        Sure that's the official figure but people are annoyed that everything is %50 to %200 more expensive compared to 2-3 years ago without having their income growing at the same pace. This is because people feel the inflation different ways because different classes consume different stuff and the average doesn't mean much when you have your rent doubled and the food becoming %50 more expensive.
        ajuc 2y ago
        If you believe the figures from totalitarian dictatorships but think that EU figures are faked I really can't help you :)

airstrike 2y ago

> How isn't "the West" shooting themselves in the feet with these sanctions when Russia is able to get the war stuff through Turkey/Kyrgyzstan etc when not able to buy and sell civilians stuff? what damage do you really think this does to "the West"? the lack of access to cheap Russian energy is the only thing I can think of, and that's a dependency better resolved now than punted to the future. had Europe never grown dependent on it, we might have entirely prevented the current situation to transpire

mrtksn 2y ago
Lack of access to cheap energy is a big one, its shaping the politics and the economy. Also, western brands are losing markets and brand recognition. IMHO the sanctions should have been for military equipment/weapons and precision tooling only and enforced religiously.
- airstrike 2y ago
  The size of the Russian market is irrelevant for western brands, for all intents and purpose—particularly US ones. Europe could have cheap energy alternatives if they wanted, but they preferred to rely on cheap Russian natural gas, believing them not to be a rogue state. The attempted invasion of Ukraine has made it obvious this was a terrible miscalculation. Arguing that Europe should try to restore the status quo ante bellum is not only foolish, senseless, illogical and irrational but dangerous too. Your profile says you like to argue things that you don't really believe in just to "have a more lively debate". I can only imagine that's what's happening here, because no rational actor would make the sort of concessions to Russia as you argue, particularly after they have proven to be a much, much weaker military power than anticipated.