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These stats always get trotted out, but they're not an apples-to-apples comparison for a few reasons: 1) the fleet average is around 12 years old, when most EV

These stats always get trotted out, but they're not an apples-to-apples comparison for a few reasons: 1) the fleet average is around 12 years old, when most EVs are new enough to still be covered by factory warranty. 2) incidents and risk in cars is coupled with driving patterns and trip length. There's no analysis to tell us whether or not it's the EVs themselves that are safer, or the way they're driven. This is also why the claim of incidents per billion miles needs further qualification. It assumes the driving profile matches the fleet driving profile, but that may not be the case due to charging requirements. 3) a lithium battery fire isn't the same as a gasoline car catching fire, and we shouldn't pretend that they are. Even taking it at face value that EVs catch fire less often, the metric for most people isn't "will my car catch fire?" but rather "will this kill me?". If an EV is actually five times less likely to catch fire, but you're six times more likely to die, that's a net loss in safety. And given the nature of some of the battery fire deaths that have occurred, alongside the -- until recently -- relative scarcity of EVs, I wouldn't fault someone for waiting to see how things shake out. 4) regardless of what stats collected by those in the industry say, you're still paying a higher premium to insure an EV. And I get that there are multiple factors that go into determining that, but I trust the people who's job it is to make money by evaluating risk more than I trust companies trying to sell me an EV. The way I see it, any improvements to the safety of batteries when things go wrong is a good thing. Even if it's the case that batteries are already better, an improvement that eliminates the horror fires that stick in people's minds, even if those fires are incredibly rare, is a big gain in public perception.

thelastgallon 2y ago
> 1) the fleet average is around 12 years old, when most EVs are new enough to still be covered by factory warranty. Does factory warranty prevent fires? > 2) incidents and risk in cars is coupled with driving patterns and trip length. There's no analysis to tell us whether or not it's the EVs themselves that are safer, or the way they're driven. This is also why the claim of incidents per billion miles needs further qualification. It assumes the driving profile matches the fleet driving profile, but that may not be the case due to charging requirements. So, its the drivers fault the car catches fire? But its not the gas car drivers fault, but only EV car drivers fault? > 3) a lithium battery fire isn't the same as a gasoline car catching fire, and we shouldn't pretend that they are. Most of the newer cars have LiFePO4 batteries, which don't have the same risks as Li-Ion cars. From https://www.evlithium.com/Blog/advanced-safety-features-of-lifepo4-batteries.html https://www.evlithium.com/Blog/advanced-safety-features-of-l... Non-flammable electrolyte: LiFePO4 batteries use a non-flammable electrolyte that does not catch fire even if the battery is punctured or damaged. The electrolyte is a mixture of lithium salts and a solvent that is less volatile and less flammable than the organic electrolytes used in other types of lithium-ion batteries. High safety: LiFePO4 batteries have a lower risk of overheating and catching fire due to their more stable cathode material and lower operating temperature. They also have built-in protection circuits that prevent overcharge, over-discharge, short-circuit, and physical damage. > 4) regardless of what stats collected by those in the industry say, you're still paying a higher premium to insure an EV. And I get that there are multiple factors that go into determining that, but I trust the people who's job it is to make money by evaluating risk more than I trust companies trying to sell me an EV. All new cars have higher insurance because they cost more.

thelastgallon 2y ago

> 1) the fleet average is around 12 years old, when most EVs are new enough to still be covered by factory warranty. Does factory warranty prevent fires? > 2) incidents and risk in cars is coupled with driving patterns and trip length. There's no analysis to tell us whether or not it's the EVs themselves that are safer, or the way they're driven. This is also why the claim of incidents per billion miles needs further qualification. It assumes the driving profile matches the fleet driving profile, but that may not be the case due to charging requirements. So, its the drivers fault the car catches fire? But its not the gas car drivers fault, but only EV car drivers fault? > 3) a lithium battery fire isn't the same as a gasoline car catching fire, and we shouldn't pretend that they are. Most of the newer cars have LiFePO4 batteries, which don't have the same risks as Li-Ion cars. From https://www.evlithium.com/Blog/advanced-safety-features-of-lifepo4-batteries.html https://www.evlithium.com/Blog/advanced-safety-features-of-l... Non-flammable electrolyte: LiFePO4 batteries use a non-flammable electrolyte that does not catch fire even if the battery is punctured or damaged. The electrolyte is a mixture of lithium salts and a solvent that is less volatile and less flammable than the organic electrolytes used in other types of lithium-ion batteries. High safety: LiFePO4 batteries have a lower risk of overheating and catching fire due to their more stable cathode material and lower operating temperature. They also have built-in protection circuits that prevent overcharge, over-discharge, short-circuit, and physical damage. > 4) regardless of what stats collected by those in the industry say, you're still paying a higher premium to insure an EV. And I get that there are multiple factors that go into determining that, but I trust the people who's job it is to make money by evaluating risk more than I trust companies trying to sell me an EV. All new cars have higher insurance because they cost more.