3 ms·

It's pathetic at this point, so-called AI is grossly overvalued based on imaginings of what it MIGHT become, but shows no signs of becoming. I always ask people

It's pathetic at this point, so-called AI is grossly overvalued based on imaginings of what it MIGHT become, but shows no signs of becoming. I always ask people what they'd value "AI" at if what we see now is all we ever get. Of course this dog and pony show just got NVIDIA past $3 trillion, it's like crypto on steroids.

talldayo 2y ago
I bet those stocks are going to go even crazier when Apple announces their OpenAI partnership later today.
- EA-3167 2y ago
  I'm sure they will, the nature of stocks being that it doesn't matter WHY things go up, just that they reliably will. Then when it all comes crashing down at some remove from the hype, and the smart moneymakers already divested, it's just the average bag holder left wondering what happened to their 'sure thing'.
throw310822 2y ago
> imaginings of what it MIGHT become, but shows no signs of becoming Just for reference, this is from nine years ago: https://youtu.be/dbQh1I_uvjo https://youtu.be/dbQh1I_uvjo And this is from five years ago: "You may not need hospitalization for respiratory problems for which there is pain or even full internal combustion. Breathing is particularly hard in the high-pitched high pitch, low pitched pitches. Air you inhale and exhale can cause a shortening in your breathing, so a ventilator is best. Doping can be administered on your own. If you fall, you must be at least 1 kilometer away from you to be considered for the testing. Your turn-of-the-seat's softerness may be a sign that something has gone wrong. Your depth should not exceed the mean of your seat height when wearing the seatbelt."
- talldayo 2y ago
  For one, Deepdream is cool but was never designed to be photorealistic. It was intentionally degraded to create psychadelic imagery, unlike the contemporary computer vision models we know today. And for two... LLMs are also getting to be pretty old. BERT and GPT-2 are both more than 5 years old, and still have fundamental issues that we can't be sure are solvable. They lie confidently, they conflate facts and fiction, they create entirely made-up scenarios when asked about real-world happenings. It should be extremely alarming that the only successful AI strategy to-date has been scaling-up an already inefficient model. AI will improve with time, but it seems entirely plausible to me that we've already hit the proverbial "bathtub curve" of progress. I genuinely cannot imagine what a "generational leap" in LLM technology would look like, outside of fixing the hallucination issues.
  - throw310822 2y ago
    > LLMs are also getting to be pretty old. BERT and GPT-2 are both more than 5 years old You sound like you have no clue that five years are the blink of an eye.
    - talldayo 2y ago
      I'm someone that used both BERT and GPT-2 5 years ago, and am incredibly disappointed by how little progress the industry has made in that time. GPT-J and GPT-NEO are still arguably competitive with the latest AI models you can use today; that's sad. Cryptocurrency apologists also used this line of logic. "Yes, today the value of crypto is nothing... but imagine where it will be in five years!" Then we all wait 5 years, and cryptocurrency is still the victim of it's own mindset. Like cryptocurrency, I think LLMs have "technically" solved what they set out to do; generate readable text. But you need more than a solution in search of a problem; there isn't really that much demand for marginally truthful text in the same way completely decentralized currency isn't really necessary for the average well-meaning civilian. I'd even go further and argue that introducing AI into our daily lives requires you to replace something else, something that was probably more accurate and better-designed than the AI replacing it. If 5 years is a "blink of an eye" for the industry, the entire field will be dead within 18 months. VC just moves that fast.
mdp2021 2y ago
> but shows no signs of becoming We started a very long time ago and you have to give it time. The current turn of events seems to have turned its back on some very critical aspects - and still, give it time. Impatience at this stage seems very ill-posed. Although you probably meant that "LLMs show no signs to "emerge" (through upscaling) what they should become".

talldayo 2y ago

I bet those stocks are going to go even crazier when Apple announces their OpenAI partnership later today.

EA-3167 2y ago
I'm sure they will, the nature of stocks being that it doesn't matter WHY things go up, just that they reliably will. Then when it all comes crashing down at some remove from the hype, and the smart moneymakers already divested, it's just the average bag holder left wondering what happened to their 'sure thing'.

throw310822 2y ago

> imaginings of what it MIGHT become, but shows no signs of becoming Just for reference, this is from nine years ago: https://youtu.be/dbQh1I_uvjo https://youtu.be/dbQh1I_uvjo And this is from five years ago: "You may not need hospitalization for respiratory problems for which there is pain or even full internal combustion. Breathing is particularly hard in the high-pitched high pitch, low pitched pitches. Air you inhale and exhale can cause a shortening in your breathing, so a ventilator is best. Doping can be administered on your own. If you fall, you must be at least 1 kilometer away from you to be considered for the testing. Your turn-of-the-seat's softerness may be a sign that something has gone wrong. Your depth should not exceed the mean of your seat height when wearing the seatbelt."

talldayo 2y ago
For one, Deepdream is cool but was never designed to be photorealistic. It was intentionally degraded to create psychadelic imagery, unlike the contemporary computer vision models we know today. And for two... LLMs are also getting to be pretty old. BERT and GPT-2 are both more than 5 years old, and still have fundamental issues that we can't be sure are solvable. They lie confidently, they conflate facts and fiction, they create entirely made-up scenarios when asked about real-world happenings. It should be extremely alarming that the only successful AI strategy to-date has been scaling-up an already inefficient model. AI will improve with time, but it seems entirely plausible to me that we've already hit the proverbial "bathtub curve" of progress. I genuinely cannot imagine what a "generational leap" in LLM technology would look like, outside of fixing the hallucination issues.
- throw310822 2y ago
  > LLMs are also getting to be pretty old. BERT and GPT-2 are both more than 5 years old You sound like you have no clue that five years are the blink of an eye.
  - talldayo 2y ago
    I'm someone that used both BERT and GPT-2 5 years ago, and am incredibly disappointed by how little progress the industry has made in that time. GPT-J and GPT-NEO are still arguably competitive with the latest AI models you can use today; that's sad. Cryptocurrency apologists also used this line of logic. "Yes, today the value of crypto is nothing... but imagine where it will be in five years!" Then we all wait 5 years, and cryptocurrency is still the victim of it's own mindset. Like cryptocurrency, I think LLMs have "technically" solved what they set out to do; generate readable text. But you need more than a solution in search of a problem; there isn't really that much demand for marginally truthful text in the same way completely decentralized currency isn't really necessary for the average well-meaning civilian. I'd even go further and argue that introducing AI into our daily lives requires you to replace something else, something that was probably more accurate and better-designed than the AI replacing it. If 5 years is a "blink of an eye" for the industry, the entire field will be dead within 18 months. VC just moves that fast.

mdp2021 2y ago

> but shows no signs of becoming We started a very long time ago and you have to give it time. The current turn of events seems to have turned its back on some very critical aspects - and still, give it time. Impatience at this stage seems very ill-posed. Although you probably meant that "LLMs show no signs to "emerge" (through upscaling) what they should become".