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Insurance can benefit the insured and insurer according to Kelly’s criterion depending on respective wealth and risk probability. Have a look at this blog for i
by ptsneves 2y ago
Insurance can benefit the insured and insurer according to Kelly’s criterion depending on respective wealth and risk probability. Have a look at this blog for intuitive examples where insurance is beneficial for both the insurer and insured.
https://two-wrongs.com/the-misunderstood-kelly-criterion.html https://two-wrongs.com/the-misunderstood-kelly-criterion.htm...
The thing that makes or breaks the Kelly criterion is the correct evaluation of risk. If the risk is incorrect then it is garbage-in garbage-out. Due to this uncertainty, people tend to use fractional Kelly criterion.
For a car example, my current car price is a significant proportion of my total wealth and the risk of totalling it is perceived by me to be high, so I pay insurance. I say perceived because in 15 years of driving I never totalled a car.
But now that I understand the Kelly criterion I will account for how expensive it is proportionately to my wealth and figure the cutoff price where I need to get total coverage insurance and how much it costs. It also explains by cell phone insurance and similar are normally not a good deal, the insured asset is worth a small proportion of my wealth.
- bluecalm 2y agoIt's not about Kelly Criterion specifically but about utility of money in general. Kelly Criterion just solves for maximal utility assuming utility is logarithmic (big assumption often made for convenience).
- ptsneves 2y agoThe logarithmic part comes from the view point of wealth as a geometric progression. I am not an expert, can you point me to a case where it is not logarithmic?