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What's most interesting to me about this trend around the developed world is that nobody has put together a truly compelling theory as to the root cause. There

What's most interesting to me about this trend around the developed world is that nobody has put together a truly compelling theory as to the root cause. There's lots of obviously politically motivated theories, like liberals saying it's because of soul crushing capitalism run amok or conservatives saying it's because women aren't kept barefoot and pregnant in the kitchen, but for as consequential as the whole thing is it seems very light on legitimate analysis (at least that I've seen).

rrr_oh_man 2y ago
For everyone else who heard this for the first time: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barefoot_and_pregnant https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barefoot_and_pregnant
jiggawatts 2y ago
There have been scientific studies done by anthropologists, but they're a different clique to economists and they basically "don't talk to each other". Essentially, there's a sort-of phase diagram for the optimal human reproduction strategy where the axes are things like "income inequality" and "environmental stress". You can then color in patches of the diagram with what strategy members of a society will settle on. For example, high-stress, high-inequality societies practice polygamy. The game-theoretic logic is that women need a partner that can provide consistent excess calories. If you can't feed your kids in just one year out of twenty, they die. It doesn't matter what the average income is, just how steady the income is. In societies like that, only the richest 10% of men can provide this, so they all have 10 wives. The other 90% of men remain bachelors and often participate in tribal warfare, exacerbating the problem. Saudi Arabia used to be like this, and parts of Africa still is. Similarly, in "one corner" of this graph is super rich men in stable societies, where their optimal reproduction strategy is serial monogamy to young wives. Look at Hollywood A-listers or billionaries to see this play out in real life. Japan got stuck in a part of the phase diagram where the optimal reproduction strategy is "don't."
- dalyons 2y ago
  im always kinda skeptical of these evolutionary game theory type theories when applying them to modern developed societies. Maybe they were true in the past, but we have largely removed ourselves from natural selection in any of the traditional ways. It doesn't mean there arent other game selection mechanisms, but they're likely very different to 1000s of years ago. Like, for example broadly no-one is having their kids all starve to death in modern japan.
- lazide 2y ago
  This is all post-facto rationalization to avoid a more glaring truth. Women aren’t having kids - because they can avoid having kids. While still having sex and having societal benefits, including retirement. That is a very, very new and unusual situation when looking at the span of human history. Birth control is a pretty new invention (mid 60’s approximately), and societies globally have been steadily rolling it out/making it available more easily. Childbirth is dangerous (especially the first time), usually ruins one’s figure (and hence ‘market value’), and is economically very expensive. At a minimum 4-6 months of ‘non productive’ work time per pregnancy, not counting the several years of near constant caretaking for a newborn. Which kills normal careers, where taking ‘time off’ pretty much guarantees you’ll be surpassed by all your competition - and 2-2.5 years pretty much guarantees it. And that is for an office job, not labor. Before birth control, the only way to do that would have required celibacy or constant abortions - and good luck suppressing that drive for most people! It’s like wondering why almost everyone is fat and out of shape when there is no public transit, everyone has to drive everywhere (and gets stuck in traffic), food is terrible and junky, jobs are mostly sedentary, etc. Of course that’s how folks will be on average when that’s the environment! And birth rates are by definition based on the average behavior. Coupled with the fact it’s relatively easy to survive/live in society without kids now, and it’s a double whammy. At least until the consequences of having no kids for a long time come home to roost - then everyone is going to be fucked. Figuratively.
  - reducesuffering 2y ago
    > including retirement I think social safety nets are an under-reported cause of this. 80 years ago, children were your retirement plan. Long term stable value pensions and 401ks, along with government ensured healthcare and social security, weren't a thing. If you got to 70 without kids, you would eventually not be able to work and probably die poor. Now, almost everyone thinks not having kids could be an option, because of course they'll have some savings (the rest of society's labor), and government healthcare, and the government won't let them become destitute.
skeledrew 2y ago
It's a bit of both, though the former to a larger extent. Pretty logical and inevitable that if people don't have enough time or are too tired (physically or mentally) to make babies, then they won't be made. Women choosing career over housemaking only exacerbates the issue, but also this choice is forced by still-immature social expectations combined with a brutal economic model. End of the day, Capitalism drives extinction.

rrr_oh_man 2y ago

For everyone else who heard this for the first time: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barefoot_and_pregnant https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barefoot_and_pregnant

jiggawatts 2y ago

There have been scientific studies done by anthropologists, but they're a different clique to economists and they basically "don't talk to each other". Essentially, there's a sort-of phase diagram for the optimal human reproduction strategy where the axes are things like "income inequality" and "environmental stress". You can then color in patches of the diagram with what strategy members of a society will settle on. For example, high-stress, high-inequality societies practice polygamy. The game-theoretic logic is that women need a partner that can provide consistent excess calories. If you can't feed your kids in just one year out of twenty, they die. It doesn't matter what the average income is, just how steady the income is. In societies like that, only the richest 10% of men can provide this, so they all have 10 wives. The other 90% of men remain bachelors and often participate in tribal warfare, exacerbating the problem. Saudi Arabia used to be like this, and parts of Africa still is. Similarly, in "one corner" of this graph is super rich men in stable societies, where their optimal reproduction strategy is serial monogamy to young wives. Look at Hollywood A-listers or billionaries to see this play out in real life. Japan got stuck in a part of the phase diagram where the optimal reproduction strategy is "don't."

dalyons 2y ago
im always kinda skeptical of these evolutionary game theory type theories when applying them to modern developed societies. Maybe they were true in the past, but we have largely removed ourselves from natural selection in any of the traditional ways. It doesn't mean there arent other game selection mechanisms, but they're likely very different to 1000s of years ago. Like, for example broadly no-one is having their kids all starve to death in modern japan.
lazide 2y ago
This is all post-facto rationalization to avoid a more glaring truth. Women aren’t having kids - because they can avoid having kids. While still having sex and having societal benefits, including retirement. That is a very, very new and unusual situation when looking at the span of human history. Birth control is a pretty new invention (mid 60’s approximately), and societies globally have been steadily rolling it out/making it available more easily. Childbirth is dangerous (especially the first time), usually ruins one’s figure (and hence ‘market value’), and is economically very expensive. At a minimum 4-6 months of ‘non productive’ work time per pregnancy, not counting the several years of near constant caretaking for a newborn. Which kills normal careers, where taking ‘time off’ pretty much guarantees you’ll be surpassed by all your competition - and 2-2.5 years pretty much guarantees it. And that is for an office job, not labor. Before birth control, the only way to do that would have required celibacy or constant abortions - and good luck suppressing that drive for most people! It’s like wondering why almost everyone is fat and out of shape when there is no public transit, everyone has to drive everywhere (and gets stuck in traffic), food is terrible and junky, jobs are mostly sedentary, etc. Of course that’s how folks will be on average when that’s the environment! And birth rates are by definition based on the average behavior. Coupled with the fact it’s relatively easy to survive/live in society without kids now, and it’s a double whammy. At least until the consequences of having no kids for a long time come home to roost - then everyone is going to be fucked. Figuratively.
- reducesuffering 2y ago
  > including retirement I think social safety nets are an under-reported cause of this. 80 years ago, children were your retirement plan. Long term stable value pensions and 401ks, along with government ensured healthcare and social security, weren't a thing. If you got to 70 without kids, you would eventually not be able to work and probably die poor. Now, almost everyone thinks not having kids could be an option, because of course they'll have some savings (the rest of society's labor), and government healthcare, and the government won't let them become destitute.

skeledrew 2y ago

It's a bit of both, though the former to a larger extent. Pretty logical and inevitable that if people don't have enough time or are too tired (physically or mentally) to make babies, then they won't be made. Women choosing career over housemaking only exacerbates the issue, but also this choice is forced by still-immature social expectations combined with a brutal economic model. End of the day, Capitalism drives extinction.