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There will be a pullback after the initial irrational exuberance, and the big spenders on Nvidia cards will pull back on that spending as the expected returns a
by adventured 2y ago
There will be a pullback after the initial irrational exuberance, and the big spenders on Nvidia cards will pull back on that spending as the expected returns are not realized (or not fully realized).
Variations of this story repeat over and over and over again throughout the decades of tech.
After the pullback, given some time, AI will realize significant real world value and the overall market will be far larger (15-20 years out). That process takes longer than the exuberance suggests early on.
Nvidia will pull back when that spending decline happens (yes, there will be a drop in their sales, they'll hit a wall and it'll go south for a while). The question is where the wall is at. They're speeding at it like Cisco was during the hype of the dotcom boom (and Cisco was growing at a crazy rate quarter over quarter, accelerating, which is a particularly unsustainable event). Tons of AI customers will die off to go along with the big spenders freezing and or reducing their spending.
- gizajob 2y agoYeah good thinking. Does seem like it’s turning into an analogous situation to Cisco, and I feel like we will actually need a quantum leap on the software side of AI (again) for the hardware sales to sustain the revenue growth.