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> Do you think that AI is having a big enough impact already to generate this valuation? Is it changing your life? Yes, but the thing is: it takes time to wri

by unoti 2y ago

> Do you think that AI is having a big enough impact already to generate this valuation? Is it changing your life? Yes, but the thing is: it takes time to write the software. We had proof of concepts for some serious game-changing things written and working over a year ago, but organizationally it takes a long time to write and deploy the things and get them into production. Even if LLM's didn't get any better than they are right now, there are still years' worth of ground-breaking improvements we could roll out but those will take time to write and deploy the software and reshape the business processes.

swalsh 2y ago
Running into this same problem, the tech is progressing WAY faster than the org can transform to use the tech. I'm betting we end up transforming by aquiring a company that completed the transformation before us, and letting them run the show. The downside is I see a lot more job destruction that route vs the slow route we're currently on.
- littlestymaar 2y ago
  > Running into this same problem, the tech is progressing WAY faster than the org can transform to use the tech It has always been the case. As a society we are still very far from having harnessed the full power of 90s era computers. Companies routinely pay hundreds of workers and even executives, to do things that computers are better at doing. For instance: managing plannings in big organizations.
  - m_fayer 2y ago
    Recently I was in the accounting office of my mom’s large senior-oriented NYC coop. Around a thousand apartments total. It was out of an old movie. Folders and coffee cups absolutely everywhere. Walls of well-used filing cabinets. The directors office was comical, you had to look over the piles if you were sitting. 15 year old computers were there but second fiddle. Honestly it was charming and made me nostalgic. It was also a reminder of exactly what you’re saying. Millions worth of NYC rentals run by a paper-driven org. The future is distributed unevenly indeed.
  - huygens6363 2y ago
    This, so much this. I feel that society as a whole is eeking slowly into 80-90's level computing, but it is completely asymmetrical. Some parts of society are hyper-evolved, like social media and entertainment, but others are stuck in earlier phases like your example. In that case even 70's level tech and theory would be an improvement. CS and educated tech people in general are in a hyper-educated bubble where it is normal to talk about distributed systems and algorithmic complexity, but there are an awful lot of smart people without those backgrounds. A lot of knowledge that's traditionally branded as "technical" is IMO generally useful, but overlooked. For example basic queuing theory in of itself is exceedingly useful. Nothing fancy, just the steady-state, blocking probablity, what chance of how many "clients", etc. I witness very large (gov) organisations lacking any kind of in/out flow modeling, statistics, etc. No dashboards, no insights. Just going by feel. Everybody is "overworked", but if you dare to say it might be a good idea to start quantifying some of those parameters you'll be in a very silent, very awkward room and will never be asked anything ever again. I wish I was kidding. AI? Let's start previous-century level process automatization and professionalization first and we'll see in a few decades if we're anywhere near ready for the next step. Edit: It's btw interesting that most (high-level) managers at these orgs are all alphas, like history and political science majors. I guess it's no wonder they are trying to solve production problems through "consensus" and endless meandering, but it's also frustrating.

by unoti 2y ago

swalsh 2y ago

Running into this same problem, the tech is progressing WAY faster than the org can transform to use the tech. I'm betting we end up transforming by aquiring a company that completed the transformation before us, and letting them run the show. The downside is I see a lot more job destruction that route vs the slow route we're currently on.

littlestymaar 2y ago
> Running into this same problem, the tech is progressing WAY faster than the org can transform to use the tech It has always been the case. As a society we are still very far from having harnessed the full power of 90s era computers. Companies routinely pay hundreds of workers and even executives, to do things that computers are better at doing. For instance: managing plannings in big organizations.
- m_fayer 2y ago
  Recently I was in the accounting office of my mom’s large senior-oriented NYC coop. Around a thousand apartments total. It was out of an old movie. Folders and coffee cups absolutely everywhere. Walls of well-used filing cabinets. The directors office was comical, you had to look over the piles if you were sitting. 15 year old computers were there but second fiddle. Honestly it was charming and made me nostalgic. It was also a reminder of exactly what you’re saying. Millions worth of NYC rentals run by a paper-driven org. The future is distributed unevenly indeed.
- huygens6363 2y ago
  This, so much this. I feel that society as a whole is eeking slowly into 80-90's level computing, but it is completely asymmetrical. Some parts of society are hyper-evolved, like social media and entertainment, but others are stuck in earlier phases like your example. In that case even 70's level tech and theory would be an improvement. CS and educated tech people in general are in a hyper-educated bubble where it is normal to talk about distributed systems and algorithmic complexity, but there are an awful lot of smart people without those backgrounds. A lot of knowledge that's traditionally branded as "technical" is IMO generally useful, but overlooked. For example basic queuing theory in of itself is exceedingly useful. Nothing fancy, just the steady-state, blocking probablity, what chance of how many "clients", etc. I witness very large (gov) organisations lacking any kind of in/out flow modeling, statistics, etc. No dashboards, no insights. Just going by feel. Everybody is "overworked", but if you dare to say it might be a good idea to start quantifying some of those parameters you'll be in a very silent, very awkward room and will never be asked anything ever again. I wish I was kidding. AI? Let's start previous-century level process automatization and professionalization first and we'll see in a few decades if we're anywhere near ready for the next step. Edit: It's btw interesting that most (high-level) managers at these orgs are all alphas, like history and political science majors. I guess it's no wonder they are trying to solve production problems through "consensus" and endless meandering, but it's also frustrating.