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Denmark's Genius Housing Fix
- jpurnell 2y agoIn the Danish system, each mortgage is backed by a matching bond. Thus, mortgage holders have two ways to pay off their mortgage: 1) pay the monthly payments or 2) buy the matching bond and, in effect, extinguish the mortgage. The latter option is valuable because when interest rates rise, the price of mortgages fall.
- okeuro49 2y ago> The latter option is valuable because when interest rates rise, the price of mortgages fall. Can you explain how that works under this system?
- tukantje 2y agoHere is how I hear it personally; When interest rates rise, demand for other assets go down, which would include these mortgage bonds; which means it is now cheaper to buy your mortgage out due to reduced demand. Essentially your mortgage is now dynamically priced, in terms of extinguishing it; by the market. If so - sounds brilliant actually. Especially because this would correctly price the change in time value of money changes - without such a system, people are incentivised to pay as slowly as possible when the interest rate on their loan is lower than the central bank rate.
- xkbarkar 2y agoIn Denmark, with a realkredit loan. The loan is funded by bonds that investors buy. The realkredit institution manages these loans and makes sure the investors get paid back. The refinancing part is essentially if the interest rates go up I can ask to pay those higher interest and bit more per month and then my total mortgage debt goes down. In some cases you can save a lot of money by doing that. It depends. Also monthly payment is misleading. You pay quarterly not monthly. So its calculated maybe 10.000DKK monthly but you will always pay 30.000DKK quartely. Don´t know why its always described as monthly in Denmark when no one pays realkredit on a monthly basis. It could be because the mortgage you can get is based on a monthly salary. But I am just guessing. No idea. Its a good system though. IMHO Denmark is very much a delusional capitalist country with socialist tax rates but this realkredit system is really superb.
- CookiesOnMyDesk 2y agoHe means that the price of the bonds backing the mortgage fall. Since the bonds are fixed interest, when interest rates rise, new bonds at a higher interest rate are more profitable than the old bonds at a lower interest rate. As such the free market price of the old bonds will drop to until the selling-at-a-loss reaches an equilibrium with the expected increased profit from higher interest rates of the new bonds over the lifetime of the bond. This lets the loan taker buy back their own bonds for less than what they were paid (the loaned amount) when the bonds were issued.
- dmoy 2y agoYup exactly this. If you go to "normal" bonds, there's many articles describing the idea, e.g. https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/what-happens-to-bonds-when-interest-rates-rise https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/what-happens-to-bonds-whe... But basically: Say a bond was originally worth say $100 and generated $10 of income in time T (10%). If interest rates rise so that $100 will now generate $20 (20%), then the original bond is worth less to a buyer. If we ignore the time delta, that bond would only really be worth $50 ($50 to generate $10 is the same 20%), so it's half as valuable. (The time change would bring it somewhere in between, depending on how long has elapsed).
- SoftTalker 2y agoInstead of the complexity of issuing these bonds, would it not be a lot simpler to just allow borrowers to buy back their mortgage at its current value, which is what any other buyer of that loan would do. Mortgage loans are bought and sold all the time, for their current value. Just allow the original borrower be able to do that.
- s1artibartfast 2y agoBoth are forcing the bank to take action, but I think that switching like for like is less of an imposition than a forcing the bank to sell. It is interesting that banks dont already offer this for a fee. Im not too knowledgeable on the topic, but wonder if it has do with how mortgages are bundled, and the cost/paperwork of unwinding that.
- fshbbdssbbgdd 2y agoThe fact that someone who needs to sell will pay back the principal is valuable to the bank. If a bank starts offering the option to get out of the loan at a lower price, it would impair the value of that loan. The only way to make this happen would be to include it in the original terms of the loan (where this feature would be worked into the market math that sets the interest rate) or if the government changes the rules (which would result in a hole in balance sheets as the value of the debt falls).
- s1artibartfast 2y agoCorrect, there is some additional value from the upside that mortgage holders may need pay in full to terminate. However, this upside should be priced into the Mortgage price on the secondary market as well. there are other factors as well, like holders of mortgages may care about much more than their market value. They are balancing time returns, risks, and their portfolio of investments.
- munch117 2y agoHow would the current value be determined? The lender has no incentive to offer you a competitive price, when your alternative is to pay the loan in full. The point of the Danish system is that it's a market system through and through. No one needs to twist the arms of lenders to make them "allow" something.
- NaOH 2y agoDon’t plagiarize. https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/06/more-on-the-danish-mortgage-system.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/06/mo...
- xtiansimon 2y ago> “buy the matching bond” I don’t get it. If you could afford to buy out the bond, then why would you need a mortgage in the first place??
- kkoste 2y agoWell. First of. Maybe you didn't have the money at that particular time. In Denmark every single mortage has a matching bond. I'll try to explain it as well as I can. When you make a mortgage loan you can have either a fixed rate or variable rate. Depending on which you choose the exchange-rate differs. It hovers around 100. When you make a loan you would want that to be 100 or more. For example if the exchange-rate was 101 you would receive 101 kroners for every 100 kroner you loan. A dream scenario. But more realistically it is probably closer to 99. Mortgages is a boring thing. But extremely interesting when it comes to your own loan. The key to take away here is the following: When the mortgage rates are high the bonds are less valuable. When the mortgage rates are low the bonds are more valuable. Now let's take an example. I take 1.000.000 DKK loan for a house at an exchange-rate of 100.00DKK. Meaning I now owe the mortgage institute 1.000.000 DKK. The mortgage security bond for my house is still 100.00 DKK at this time. Meaning if I want to payout my loan. I have to pay 100.00 DKK to pay off 100.00DK. But for if the rates are high then the exchange-rate might be 95. In which case I can then go down to the bank and say 'I want out of my loan'. The bank will then say 'Okay. You still owe the mortgage institution 1.000.000 and since the exchange-rate is 95 right now. You then have to pay 950.000 plus some fees'. The bank will then buy the underlying bond for me and handle the rest. In general we have many options when it comes to mortgages. It all involves refinancing: * If the rate falls you can do a down conversion. You replace your old loan with a new one with lower rate. You might have to pay more to payout the loan since the exchange-rate will certainly be higher. * If the rate falls you can do an up conversion. Similar to the example before. But this time you replace the loan. You get a higher rate, but you might "pay off" a significant amount. Hope that sort of clears it up.
- kkoste 2y agoAnd then there is the 'slanted' conversion where you refinance from a fixed mortgage to a variable mortgage. Or vice versa. In all cases it depends on your situation. How many years are left on the loan. Have your disposable income changed such that you can pay off more in which do you want to change the loean from a 30 year loan to 10 year loean instead. It takes some serious thinking.
- jseliger 2y agoAnother description, from 2023: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/03/in-praise-of-the-danish-mortgage-system.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/03/in...
- TaleAsOldAsTime 2y ago> Fewer sellers means buyers compete for a smaller pool of available homes, driving up prices Uh? This is just moving the tokens around. Those sellers are still going to live somewhere, so they're either going to buy again or enter the rental market. So the "pool of available homes" is not improved by this maneuver, like, at all. At best the buyer and seller for a given transaction end up just trading places and renting-vs-owning availability wobbles transiently by a minor amount. There is another tried and true method for increasing the pool of available homes though. It's called building more homes.
- ranger_danger 2y ago> trading places Sounds like socialism with extra steps.
- TaleAsOldAsTime 2y ago[flagged]
- bnchrch 2y agoThis is brilliant. But I needed to go find out a better description for my luddite self Heres how using a bond backed mortgage causes the mortgage to become cheaper during interest rate rises ---- * How Interest Rates Affect Present Value * The interest rate is a key factor in calculating present value. A lower interest rate means future money is almost as good as money today because you can’t earn much interest. A higher interest rate means future money is worth a lot less because you could earn more interest with today’s money. * Example * 1. Initial Mortgage Calculation: - You have a $500,000 mortgage. - You are paying it back over 30 years with a fixed monthly payment of $2108. - The interest rate is 3%. 2. Interest Rate Change: - Suppose the interest rate goes up to 6%. 3. Impact on Present Value: When interest rates increase, the present value of those fixed monthly payments decreases. This is because if you were to invest money today at a 6% interest rate, you’d earn more on that investment than at 3%. Therefore, future payments are worth less because you’re missing out on that higher interest.
- baal80spam 2y agoMy DK friends say that housing prices in København are outrageous. Did the genius fix work only locally?
- bryanlarsen 2y agoMost countries outside of the US also have a "fix" for this specific problem just by not having 30 year fixed rate mortgages. For example in Canada most fixed rate mortgages are only fixed for 5 years. So we don't have the mortgage lock in effect that the US has, but that's only one cause out of dozens for outrageous housing prices.
- marcinzm 2y agoAs I understand it, the Canada housing market is significantly more broken than the US one overall: https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2023/09/the-u-s-housing-market-vs-the-canadian-housing-market/ https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2023/09/the-u-s-housing-mar... Also, isn't there now a massive concern about large scale loan defaults and bankruptcies the next time mortgage rates reset in Canada?
- bryanlarsen 2y agoStructurally, the Canadian housing market is much less broken than the US, IMO. Toronto and Vancouver are adding housing at rates unparalleled in any US city outside of Texas. But Canada also has population growth ~10X that of the US.
- babypuncher 2y agoThank fuck my mortgage rate is locked in. I refinanced when rates were at rock bottom, I'd hate to see what my mortgage payment would look like today if my bank was allowed to raise it.
- apercu 2y agoThat's the Canadian system, have to renew your rate every 5 years. It's great for the banks. The tighter regulations helped Canada avoid the underwater mortgage fiasco of the US in 2008/2009, but mostly it's just a really good deal for the banks. :)
- orochimaaru 2y agoIf I already have a Fannie/freddie loan - why not allow me to maintain the same rate for the remaining loan and have the new interest rates for any delta. This would encourage movement without all the complexity of this scheme. The money is already owed to the these entities at that rate. Allow folks to keep the rate on that amount even if they move.
- frumper 2y agoIt's owed to these entities at that rate for a specific amount of time. Swapping homes should then mean that the new home is on a payment timeline of whatever the remaining term is, not reset to 30 years. You'd also need to have not increased the loan amount for the math to work out, so either you'd need to sell the old home for more than what the new one costs, or come up with the difference in cash. On top of that, the original loan is backed with the old home as collateral, so the new home would also need to be worth at least as much as the remaining balance.
- orochimaaru 2y agoYes - I don’t disagree. But provided those conditions are met I’m sure a blended rate could be arrived at that is much lower than market rate. If the goal is to make it easier to move I think there are options. But I don’t see anyone rushing to exchange a 2.65% loan for 8%. I mean at that rate it makes more sense to rent your home than to sell it.
- frumper 2y agoThis blending rate would just be subsidizing the have's at the expense of the have nots. It would be a market advantage to existing low rate holders going into the next 2 decades.
- orochimaaru 2y agoThe have’s are at heavily subsidized levels anyway. Anyone who could locked in a low rate in 2020, 2021 and early 2022. I don’t think they intend to move or sell unless the rates are in their favor. Blending allows for that to be possible in a gradual manner. Otherwise we are looking at real estate gridlock for a very long time. Blending is obviously politically uncomfortable. However, the “have’s” are already at a massive advantage.
- xnx 2y agoEtrade offered portable mortgages in 2003: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/06/opinion/portable-mortgage-loans-housing.html https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/06/opinion/portable-mortgage...
- skybrian 2y agoIt does sound like a good system since it gives the homeowner more flexibility. But call options aren’t free, so I wonder if it also makes getting a mortgage a little more expensive? The mortgage becomes a bond that’s less valuable to the investor, so they would want a higher interest rate up front to make up for it.
- gopher_space 2y agoThis seems like it might give investors flexibility as well. What does it mean for long-term investments if people start paying their mortgages early?
- skybrian 2y agoPeople often do pay off mortgages early, for example when they move. This option would let them do it cheaper, making it more attractive.
- bwanab 2y agoThis document explains the Danish system in some detail: https://finansdanmark.dk/media/raim0hhz/den-klassiske-realkreditmodel_uk_2021_final.pdf https://finansdanmark.dk/media/raim0hhz/den-klassiske-realkr.... Toward the end of the document, there is a discussion of how the Danish mortgage system has fared in the various financial crises of the past 50 years starting with the twin oil shocks of the 1970s. Evidently it has been much more stable than the US system during that era. If for no other reason, the US should look at this system seriously.
- s1artibartfast 2y agoI found the writing style of this article grating. The Danish system can be summed up in one sentence. "Let home owners buy their mortgage from the bank for the net present value of the loan instead of the remaining principle".
- jpollock 2y agoIn New Zealand, a fixed rate mortgage is very much linked to the bond. If you repay early, what happens depends on what has happened to the interest rate - there is an early repayment penalty if the interest rate drops. https://www.bnz.co.nz/support/home-loans/managing-your-loan/early-repayment-charges https://www.bnz.co.nz/support/home-loans/managing-your-loan/...