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Does this mark the moment in history where China has now surpassed the US and is the new global superpower? The scale and rate at which China is innovating in

Does this mark the moment in history where China has now surpassed the US and is the new global superpower? The scale and rate at which China is innovating in space, science, and technology is pretty compelling for the majority of the world.

upon_drumhead 2y ago
If it wasn't for SpaceX, perhaps, but with SpaceX in the equation, no, it doesn't shift any geopolitical power.
- audunw 2y ago
  Even without SpaceX I think USA is well ahead of China in this area. There are many other companies and projects well ahead of what China is doing.
khuey 2y ago
> Does this mark the moment in history where China has now surpassed the US and is the new global superpower? Why would it? The US returned rocks from the moon over half a century ago.
- rockemsockem 2y ago
  And better yet, returned rocks from an asteroid in the last couple years.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
gravescale 2y ago
I'd reserve transferring the title for being first to hit industrially-useful fusion power, but I'd also accept a permanent non-LEO space colony. Which is to say, I'm not holding my breath for a handover just yet.
- philistine 2y ago
  I’m looking at the amount of nuclear-powered aircraft carriers. When China has that much projected power across the globe, we’ll talk. For the moment, they’d still end up in a Ukraine-sized boondoggle if they invaded Taiwan.
akira2501 2y ago
> the new global superpower? China has rather deftly avoided the dumb "global" conflicts the US has needlessly boondoggled itself in over the past 3 decades. I think they've mostly sidestepped this question. For now.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- seanmcdirmid 2y ago
  > China has rather deftly avoided the dumb "global" conflicts the US has needlessly boondoggled itself in over the past 3 decades. China hasn’t really avoided these, they have rather gotten involved in completely different ones. The good news is that their last border skirmish with Russia was around 25 years ago.
  - Teever 2y ago
    Which Chinese conflicts of the past 25 years compare with the quagmires that the US has found itself in?
    - clarionbell 2y ago
      None. Which is kind of the point. Unlike US, Chinese government doesn't even pretend to be about anything else than it's own benefit. When US took over Afghanistan, it tried to set up local government modeled on western democracies. That totally failed. I don't know what China would have done. But I'm pretty sure they wouldn't try to build anything of the sort. Their most recent conflict is a nice counter point. Spratly Islands in South Chinese sea. It's an obvious land grab in an area that is vital for commercial shipping, important for food production and very good starting point if you needed to pressure Vietnam, Philippines or Taiwan. The only justification is some old map. International arbitration has ruled against them, and they don't really care. In the meantime they are ramming foreign fishing boats, building military facilities (airports, depots, etc.) and generally acting like they own the area. In summary, their approach is pragmatic, with obvious material benefit and no pretense of lofty goals. Also very low on casualties, at least for now. It is, in many ways, call back to days of gunboat diplomacy.
dragonelite 2y ago
Off course China has been a global superpower for at least 4~5 years now, doesn't mean the US isn't a global super power anymore. The US is still the biggest super power in culture and science. But its not relative big enough anymore in military compared to say Russia and China's size that it can dictate the world what will and what wont happen.
- NicoJuicy 2y ago
  Perhaps China, but Russia is entirely dependent on them. Russia isn't the USSR anymore for a long time, where it's GDP was the same as the US.
  - jajko 2y ago
    GDPs were never the same, soviet union had between 1/3 to 2/3 of US one. It waged absolutely destructive WWII on its land compared to US, and that had massive consequences in economy and demographics for decades. Only their richness in natural resources kept them above, although it became typical undeveloped country resource curse over time with dictators taking all power and terrorizing population, a tradition well preserved to this day.
    - shiroiushi 2y ago
      Having to fight the Germans on their own land wasn't the only thing that had massive negative consequences: their own actions after the war (such as Stalin's purges) probably had bigger consequences.
      - rightbyte 2y ago
        Wasn't the purges before the war mostly?
        keiferski 2y ago
        Yes, and this had an effect on the war itself.
paganel 2y ago
They’ve (the Americans) have been losing it for 7 or 8 years or so, if news about the Houthis being able to have hit USS Eisenhower turns out to be true (which would be a first hit on an US carrier since 1945) then things would be even more obvious to the general population.
- surfingdino 2y ago
  The US and the rest of the West are not prepared for guerilla warfare deployed by nation states. We've been reorganising our military to face advanced armies equipped with state-of-the-art technology whereas our enemies are not quite advanced. So we find ourselves in a situation where we can deploy a few dozen AT-STs against millions of drunken Ewoks with AK-47s. It's a tricky situation, because we developed weapons and strategies that prioritise surgical hits that minimise civilian losses while the enemies treat people as disposable assets and killing civilians is not a consideration for them. I wouldn't be so cocky if I was Chinese, Russian, Iranian, or Houthi. If the western military switches gears into kill'em all mode all the little shits who want rule the world by terror will find themselves with bigger problems.
  - rightbyte 2y ago
    > If the western military switches gears into kill'em all mode all the little shits who want rule the world by terror will find themselves with bigger problems. Ye the potential resurgence of open genicidial colonial policies is a concern. The good thing about the usual suspects pretending to bomb people for their own good is that there is like a limit on how many weddings they can blow up before they are forced to pull out by other political forces.
- philistine 2y ago
  Hitting an aircraft carrier in a busy traffic area with close shores is not impossible and a great morale boost. But have they sunk it? Taken it of action? Damaged it in any way?
audunw 2y ago
Innovating? China still seems to be mostly in a catching up and copying phase. Not to say their accomplishments are anything but impressive. But look at the space station they’re building. Impressive achievement, but a fairly conservative design. Meanwhile the US has worked on inflatable space station modules, and it seems like that USA will make commercial space stations well before China. For what I’ve seen USA has far more innovate designs in the works for rocket engines, rockets, spacecraft, space planes, space stations, satellites, etc. There are impressive innovations from China too, in the space of quad copters, solar power, robot vacuums, EVs, etc. But all-in-all it feels to me that their advanced innovations from all of China isn’t much beyond what we see from much smaller countries like Korea, Japan, Taiwan, etc. Not that amazing considering their population size. Their population is now shrinking, the economy is getting worse, they have an insane level of debt (especially when including shadow banking), they don’t do real immigration, they’re getting more hostile to expats, they have some brain drain, ... I suspect we’re seeing peak China.
- Dalewyn 2y ago
  Being in denial and bitching about what isn't denied, instead of taking steps to stay on top and specifically ahead of China, is a great way to lose and lose harder when the US (and the west at large) still has (soon to be had) a chance. Unless you're a politician running for office, you don't win by arguing your opponent is shit and debilitated and losing and then proceed to do nothing.
  - picture 2y ago
    A lot of steps are being taken to "stay ahead" though. Consider something like the CHIPS act, I actually got offered a research grant for the summer from it. This is the first time I felt such direct influence and urgency from the politicians
    - Dalewyn 2y ago
      I agree we are finally doing something, which is far better than the nothing we've been doing until the past few years, but in my opinion it's nowhere near enough yet to make up. China is on the third roll out of their equivalent of our CHIPS Act[1], where is ours? We need more financial incentives, more trade restrictions, harder and heavier diplomacy, and indeed even exercising our military might where necessary if we want to stay the preeminent superpower and continue Pax Americana. China is a very motivated and ambitious country, they have every reason to kick the US and by extension the west off the pedestal. We are at the point we can't just sit and go "Made In China means Crap" anymore, we need to take them seriously and act like it or we will lose our era. [1]: https://slashdot.org/story/24/05/27/1327206/china-sets-up-third-fund-with-475-billion-to-boost-semiconductor-sector https://slashdot.org/story/24/05/27/1327206/china-sets-up-th...

upon_drumhead 2y ago

If it wasn't for SpaceX, perhaps, but with SpaceX in the equation, no, it doesn't shift any geopolitical power.

audunw 2y ago
Even without SpaceX I think USA is well ahead of China in this area. There are many other companies and projects well ahead of what China is doing.

khuey 2y ago

> Does this mark the moment in history where China has now surpassed the US and is the new global superpower? Why would it? The US returned rocks from the moon over half a century ago.

rockemsockem 2y ago
And better yet, returned rocks from an asteroid in the last couple years.

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

gravescale 2y ago

I'd reserve transferring the title for being first to hit industrially-useful fusion power, but I'd also accept a permanent non-LEO space colony. Which is to say, I'm not holding my breath for a handover just yet.

philistine 2y ago
I’m looking at the amount of nuclear-powered aircraft carriers. When China has that much projected power across the globe, we’ll talk. For the moment, they’d still end up in a Ukraine-sized boondoggle if they invaded Taiwan.

akira2501 2y ago

> the new global superpower? China has rather deftly avoided the dumb "global" conflicts the US has needlessly boondoggled itself in over the past 3 decades. I think they've mostly sidestepped this question. For now.

deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
seanmcdirmid 2y ago
> China has rather deftly avoided the dumb "global" conflicts the US has needlessly boondoggled itself in over the past 3 decades. China hasn’t really avoided these, they have rather gotten involved in completely different ones. The good news is that their last border skirmish with Russia was around 25 years ago.
- Teever 2y ago
  Which Chinese conflicts of the past 25 years compare with the quagmires that the US has found itself in?
  - clarionbell 2y ago
    None. Which is kind of the point. Unlike US, Chinese government doesn't even pretend to be about anything else than it's own benefit. When US took over Afghanistan, it tried to set up local government modeled on western democracies. That totally failed. I don't know what China would have done. But I'm pretty sure they wouldn't try to build anything of the sort. Their most recent conflict is a nice counter point. Spratly Islands in South Chinese sea. It's an obvious land grab in an area that is vital for commercial shipping, important for food production and very good starting point if you needed to pressure Vietnam, Philippines or Taiwan. The only justification is some old map. International arbitration has ruled against them, and they don't really care. In the meantime they are ramming foreign fishing boats, building military facilities (airports, depots, etc.) and generally acting like they own the area. In summary, their approach is pragmatic, with obvious material benefit and no pretense of lofty goals. Also very low on casualties, at least for now. It is, in many ways, call back to days of gunboat diplomacy.

dragonelite 2y ago

Off course China has been a global superpower for at least 4~5 years now, doesn't mean the US isn't a global super power anymore. The US is still the biggest super power in culture and science. But its not relative big enough anymore in military compared to say Russia and China's size that it can dictate the world what will and what wont happen.

NicoJuicy 2y ago
Perhaps China, but Russia is entirely dependent on them. Russia isn't the USSR anymore for a long time, where it's GDP was the same as the US.
- jajko 2y ago
  GDPs were never the same, soviet union had between 1/3 to 2/3 of US one. It waged absolutely destructive WWII on its land compared to US, and that had massive consequences in economy and demographics for decades. Only their richness in natural resources kept them above, although it became typical undeveloped country resource curse over time with dictators taking all power and terrorizing population, a tradition well preserved to this day.
  - shiroiushi 2y ago
    Having to fight the Germans on their own land wasn't the only thing that had massive negative consequences: their own actions after the war (such as Stalin's purges) probably had bigger consequences.
    - rightbyte 2y ago
      Wasn't the purges before the war mostly?
      - keiferski 2y ago
        Yes, and this had an effect on the war itself.

paganel 2y ago

They’ve (the Americans) have been losing it for 7 or 8 years or so, if news about the Houthis being able to have hit USS Eisenhower turns out to be true (which would be a first hit on an US carrier since 1945) then things would be even more obvious to the general population.

surfingdino 2y ago
The US and the rest of the West are not prepared for guerilla warfare deployed by nation states. We've been reorganising our military to face advanced armies equipped with state-of-the-art technology whereas our enemies are not quite advanced. So we find ourselves in a situation where we can deploy a few dozen AT-STs against millions of drunken Ewoks with AK-47s. It's a tricky situation, because we developed weapons and strategies that prioritise surgical hits that minimise civilian losses while the enemies treat people as disposable assets and killing civilians is not a consideration for them. I wouldn't be so cocky if I was Chinese, Russian, Iranian, or Houthi. If the western military switches gears into kill'em all mode all the little shits who want rule the world by terror will find themselves with bigger problems.
- rightbyte 2y ago
  > If the western military switches gears into kill'em all mode all the little shits who want rule the world by terror will find themselves with bigger problems. Ye the potential resurgence of open genicidial colonial policies is a concern. The good thing about the usual suspects pretending to bomb people for their own good is that there is like a limit on how many weddings they can blow up before they are forced to pull out by other political forces.
philistine 2y ago
Hitting an aircraft carrier in a busy traffic area with close shores is not impossible and a great morale boost. But have they sunk it? Taken it of action? Damaged it in any way?

audunw 2y ago

Innovating? China still seems to be mostly in a catching up and copying phase. Not to say their accomplishments are anything but impressive. But look at the space station they’re building. Impressive achievement, but a fairly conservative design. Meanwhile the US has worked on inflatable space station modules, and it seems like that USA will make commercial space stations well before China. For what I’ve seen USA has far more innovate designs in the works for rocket engines, rockets, spacecraft, space planes, space stations, satellites, etc. There are impressive innovations from China too, in the space of quad copters, solar power, robot vacuums, EVs, etc. But all-in-all it feels to me that their advanced innovations from all of China isn’t much beyond what we see from much smaller countries like Korea, Japan, Taiwan, etc. Not that amazing considering their population size. Their population is now shrinking, the economy is getting worse, they have an insane level of debt (especially when including shadow banking), they don’t do real immigration, they’re getting more hostile to expats, they have some brain drain, ... I suspect we’re seeing peak China.

Dalewyn 2y ago
Being in denial and bitching about what isn't denied, instead of taking steps to stay on top and specifically ahead of China, is a great way to lose and lose harder when the US (and the west at large) still has (soon to be had) a chance. Unless you're a politician running for office, you don't win by arguing your opponent is shit and debilitated and losing and then proceed to do nothing.
- picture 2y ago
  A lot of steps are being taken to "stay ahead" though. Consider something like the CHIPS act, I actually got offered a research grant for the summer from it. This is the first time I felt such direct influence and urgency from the politicians
  - Dalewyn 2y ago
    I agree we are finally doing something, which is far better than the nothing we've been doing until the past few years, but in my opinion it's nowhere near enough yet to make up. China is on the third roll out of their equivalent of our CHIPS Act[1], where is ours? We need more financial incentives, more trade restrictions, harder and heavier diplomacy, and indeed even exercising our military might where necessary if we want to stay the preeminent superpower and continue Pax Americana. China is a very motivated and ambitious country, they have every reason to kick the US and by extension the west off the pedestal. We are at the point we can't just sit and go "Made In China means Crap" anymore, we need to take them seriously and act like it or we will lose our era. [1]: https://slashdot.org/story/24/05/27/1327206/china-sets-up-third-fund-with-475-billion-to-boost-semiconductor-sector https://slashdot.org/story/24/05/27/1327206/china-sets-up-th...