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The Political Causes of the College Enrollment Crisis
- zer00eyz 2y agoLook I lean pretty far left. But some times I feel like my fellow lefties are blind to their right leaning peers. Someone needs to clue the author in to middle skill jobs. Plumbers, electricians, machinists, elevator repair... There are a lot of people going into industry's because of parents or extended family gave them a foot in the door. Because many of them started young and by 18 are already "middle skilled". You now have kids in red states who understand the math behind loans because they watch their parents get burned, because they use the internet, because they know folks who went to college, didn't finish and spent years paying it off. Candidly I would grant for many of them skipping school makes more sense than getting a degree that amounts to under water basket weaving when it comes to job prospects.
- ipnon 2y agoYoung people choosing not to matriculate because universities are too expensive, too ideological, too useless… will do more to fix the universities than an infinite stream of think pieces, congressional appropriations or rubber stamping by the boards of trustees.
- chiefalchemist 2y agoIn short, the crisis isn't enrollment - left or right. The "crisis" is that an investment in a college degree pays inferior returns. The solution for any given higher edu institution is simple: 1) provide the knowledge and skills that make a degteed student more valuable in the market (i.e., to get a better job, higher salary, etc.) 2) Lower the cost of tuition. Demand is down so price should follow, obviously. Unfortunately after years of cheap and easy money (i.e., student loans) these institutions have become slow, bloated, etc. Some deserve to perish.
- rickydroll 2y agoI think you're onto something. My take away is that you talking about elite overproduction (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elite_overproduction https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elite_overproduction). FTA: Elite overproduction is a concept developed by Peter Turchin that describes the condition of a society that is producing too many potential elite members relative to its ability to absorb them into the power structure.[1][2][3] This, he hypothesizes, is a cause for social instability, as those left out of power feel aggrieved by their relatively low socioeconomic status.[1][2][3] --- The nonviolent unwinding of elite overproduction apparently happened in the 50s and 60s with strong labor unions improving the financial well-being of laborers and high taxes on the very well-to-do recycling their excess wealth back into society. I look at the current shift towards trades as another form of reversing the access number of elites. IMO, It's worth spending some time contemplating this concept and its potential application to society today. ----- Side note: every time I say or hear the phrase elite overproduction, I think of Bertie Wooster and the Drones club. You're welcome.
- matrix87 2y agofor some reason in this culture, people think that working in an office, having a degree, living in a big metro area, etc makes them "elite". nobody ever called these people "elite" except themselves
- chiefalchemist 2y agoThat's part of the overproduction process, isn't it? That is, those at the top have those in the middle and midddle-top believing they're on the inside. Nah. They're the suckers. They're the exploited. They're where the wealth is being extracted from. Given human biases and blind spots, no one in that positions wants to admit they've been played. Geez, look at the article. Written by a leftie for The Left and "blaming" The Right when in fact The Right has it right. That is, "we're done being suckered."
- matrix87 2y agothe author isn't left... > Conservatism and participation in its core institutions - marriage, church, and the military - are associated with better mental health also anyone who's trying to argue that widespread educational attainment is bad for society deserves to be laughed at
- karaterobot 2y agoI'm not sure it's what you intended, but this sounds like you might be saying that a perfectly acceptable future would be to have an elite class of educated, left-leaning liberals who go to college, while their conservative, right-leaning peers go to trade schools. Not all that different than today, just codified, concretized into an actual, literal class system. This feels dystopian to me, and probably would have a bad outcome. While I definitely agree that going into a trade is a great option, which should be (and, I think, sort of is) destigmatized, the problem I see is that not many plumbers or electricians get elected to congress, or the presidency, or head the gigantic tech and finance companies that rule the world. I want diverse viewpoints among my ruling elite, if I have to have them (which I do). Even if it means I don't agree with all them, and they don't agree with me, I think it's probably better in the long run. Just trying to avoid handing my grandchildren an eloi/morlock future.
- zer00eyz 2y ago>> I'm not sure it's what you intended, but this sounds like you might be saying that a perfectly acceptable future would be to have an elite class of educated, The meat of this article is that right leaning kids are the ones not going to college. IM not suggesting it, its what thee article says, there's literal data for it. The folks I know who are hard core republicans all have jobs that puts dirt under their nails. They do the sorts of jobs that your either trained for or have to go dig up some info from esoteric sources (think the whole earth catalog). It's the I, Pencil problem... there are lots of smart people out there who are very educated that have ZERO clue about how the most basic parts of our world function.
- safety1st 2y agoTradies can do well financially, but they're not the ones who are going to end up setting policy for the next generation. We have a lot of data that shows us it's specifically Ivy Leaguers who will do that, actually - they are massively overrepresented in public and private leadership positions. Are you going to tell me that if the shoe was on the other foot and the Ivy League was like 90% conservatives, you wouldn't be concerned about the direction this is going to send things? I think that's the point the person who responded to you was trying to make, the elite class which leads the country, makes the laws etc. should be reflective of the people it governs (that has been a core liberal tenet of the civil rights movement for many years). I don't want a one party system regardless of which party it ends up being. Universities train our future leaders and they need to be politically inclusive.
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- matrix87 2y ago> Candidly I would grant for many of them skipping school makes more sense than getting a degree that amounts to under water basket weaving when it comes to job prospects. If you have a degree and give people this advice then you're probably not a good person
- zer00eyz 2y ago> If you have a degree and give people this advice then you're probably not a good person I can point you to plenty of people with no college and middle skill jobs who are happier with what they do and make more than people with degrees. They also have way less debt. There are plenty of smart people who have knowledge and training that allows them to do things most college graduates would be baffled by. Looking down on them because they have dirt under their nails was a mistake we made 50 years ago. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ve1aWWDNJ60 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ve1aWWDNJ60 This is middle skill labor in action. They make more than most people who get history degrees for good reason. We only NEED one of them. (And I fuckin love history so..)
- matrix87 2y agoWhy history major vs trades? Isn't that sort of a false dichotomy? Would you present it this way to your kids? Or just other people's?
- nimbius 2y agoso the article ignores the fact that most of the gen Z college kids theyre ostensibly referencing got a front-row seat to watch their parents struggle with undischargeable student loan debt that likely still haunts them into their retirement. watching your parents toil in debtors prison is a great way to wind up rethinking your options for the future. edit: this authors entire substack is mostly posts railing against DEI liberalism and flogging the culture war in general. low effort article.
- MattGaiser 2y agoEspecially when plenty don’t work professional jobs anyway as a result.
- colechristensen 2y agoWrong. The problem was when interest peaked and people were giving the impression that the only path anyone should take is seeking a university degree. A whole lot of people ended up spending an enormous amount of money and working really hard on degrees that did not add value to their lives either through career opportunities or the other nonjob benefits a university degree can offer but increasingly does not because so many are just chasing the certification and have little interest in education for its own sake. Immigration programs like H1B also sucked the market out of low end education required jobs so employers never had to reach out to entice rural kids to getting degrees and joining them. The open door to immigration left those people behind which has fueled the current class/ideology conflict in the US. Donald Trump is what half the country imagines their best case of success would look like because there’s so little of people that they identify with gaining success.
- HPsquared 2y agoThe time and effort expenditure to get a degree is often forgotten. It's the biggest thing, I think, and also the biggest economic impact: all that time spent studying, isn't (directly at least) providing value to anyone except maybe to the student.
- zer00eyz 2y ago>>> Immigration programs like H1B also sucked the market out of low end education required jobs so employers never had to reach out to entice rural kids to getting degrees and joining them. You realize that to get an H1B you need a bachelors or better, and it's a process. Rural jobs and H1B have dam near zero intersection.
- zug_zug 2y agoEh, seems kinda linkbaity. I'm not convinced there's a crisis, perhaps lowered college enrollment is a good thing for everyone. If a student doesn't enjoy it they don't have to go, and if students don't feel welcome in theory the free market will essentially correct without random internet people needing to fret. I think the obvious thing to do, if one presumes college education is universally good, would be to simply ask the kids who don't like college why they don't like it.
- _heimdall 2y agoThis article seems to be based on an assumption that total college enrollment in and of itself is an important and meaningful metric, and that seeing it decrease is a bad thing. In reality, looking at total enrollment rate matters for very few people. That stat is only meaningful to universities themselves and the banks writing student loans. An individual's life, or society as a whole isn't made better solely by graduating college - at that point its just a piece of paper and a huge expense. What matters is how a person's life compares to what it would have been without college, total enrollment will never tell you that.
- matrix87 2y agoThe current generation(s) of graduating undergrads are getting utterly fucked. Especially the ones that took out loans. Because of the job market, they'll just sit there and accrue interest It's crazy how much influence interest rates have on the broader economy and social mobility. If the fed keeps rates higher for longer I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a cliff in college enrollment back to where it was in decades previously. And if that happens we could see a similar cliff in political affiliation. Time will tell
- vidanay 2y agoThe single biggest boost I can give to my child is that I am on track to be able to fund them through college with zero debt.
- drak0n1c 2y agoThe subset of the youth population for whom attending college has both personal and societal benefits has been far exceeded for some time now. Classic case of subsidies inducing excessive demand, along with all the negative effects on prices (tuition), supply (bloated admins, more graduates than jobs), and time/money opportunity cost borne by the students and the institutions optimizing for capacity.
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- mindslight 2y agoFirst, wtf is a "Republican high school student" ? How does a teenager "identifying" as a Republican or Democrat mean much beyond either trying to please or rebel against their parents? Wouldn't this type of analysis make much more sense in terms of parents? Like perhaps Republican parents are more likely to steer their kids away from college due to this perceived trend of "hyper-liberalism" ? Second, it's gone from merely sloppy to outright fallacious to throw around "Republican" and "conservative" as if they're synonyms, when in 2024 they're completely opposed. With the rise of Trumpism (populist reaction, to use Moldbug's own word), the Democratic party has basically been left as the home of conservatives - strong foreign policy, fiscal responsibility (pulling up from ZIRP), the rule of law, belief in societal institutions, and so on. Tying these two points together points the way towards useful synthesis - bureaucracy heavy college campuses have actually gotten hyper-conservative (witness the harsh responses against protests of Israel's genocide - still not much "progress" there!). But it's conservatism based on the values of "intersectional" identity politics that have become part of the zeitgeist over the past several decades. The "culture war" already ended some time in the oughties, with the religious fundamentalists losing. Or did you buy into that nonsense that Fortune 500 companies are advertising with rainbow flags to "push an agenda", rather than merely tying their brands to the majority's values? I'm quite sure there are still actual liberals on college campuses - seeing through the "intersectional" pantheon, but not falling for the comforting destructive reactionary nonsense either - looking forward to actual true progress past both. But as always, the revolution will not be televised and all that. The only question is whether us oldies will listen or if they'll have to begrudgingly wait for our deaths, too.
- anonfordays 2y agoThere's a 500 pound gorilla in the room: Young men have collectively checked out of a society that has nothing but contempt for them. When the supermajority in academia have nothing good to say about you, opine about how "toxic" your existence is, and openly deride your struggles... who would want to spend four years and tens of thousands of dollars to be "lectured" by those people? When men are suffering from record levels of depression, dying from suicide and drug overdoses at rates never seen, still being openly discriminated against and laughed at, supporting the system that not only allows, but encourages that behavior is ridiculous.
- nradov 2y agoOh please, let's lose the persecution complex. If there is any discrimination against men happening in academia it's in the clown show departments that no one cares about anyway. As for "struggles", study history. The minor struggles that modern men in developed countries deal with are nothing compared to what our ancestors faced. I was never drafted and sent to assault the beach at Normandy.
- safety1st 2y agoI mean, the Chronicle of Higher Education put out an explainer a year or two titled "The Male Enrollment Crisis." Not "Is there a male enrollment crisis?" because this is a fact that is not in dispute. Males are walking away from college in droves, they are 40% of new enrollments and dropping. https://connect.chronicle.com/rs/931-EKA-218/images/MaleEnrollmentCrisis_Ascendium_ExplainerV4.pdf https://connect.chronicle.com/rs/931-EKA-218/images/MaleEnro... In case your main way of assessing information is its tribal affiliation (it shouldn't be for gods sake): this publication was written by a woman, it devotes substantial time to black male enrollment where the problem is extra bad, and the CHE leans center-left according to Media Bias/Fact Check. But hey if you weren't at Normandy you don't have problems right? Good lord, what a non sequitur
- skhunted 2y agoThere is an enrollment crisis. It is not because colleges are denying entry by men. It is because men are not even attempting to go to college. Men don’t seem to be able to deal with a society in which they are not coddled as much as in they were in the past.