3 ms·

The retail bulls online are now refusing to listen to that narrative. But it seems like a large correction of NVidia’s price is in the post. Nvidia added $480 b

The retail bulls online are now refusing to listen to that narrative. But it seems like a large correction of NVidia’s price is in the post. Nvidia added $480 billion of market cap in the last week alone. It’s getting pretty absurd. Plus Moores law will catch up to Jensen at some point and we’ll be running LLMs on Raspberry Pis. It’s Cisco/Crypto/Tesla all over again. The price is just going up and staying up for the time being but be ready when it’s time to short it back down. It’ll be epic. P.s. - something weird happened yesterday in that the whole market was down except for nvidia - it’s like Nvidia is almost turning into a black hole, absorbing all the value and money around it, because why invest in anything else? Its market cap is now also bigger than the entire German stock market. This cannot be a good thing. Particularly because I’m quite tech-heavy and AI still isn’t making a huge impact in my life. Software yeah, but the hugely resource intensive LLMs and agents still seem like a curiosity, and I’m not sure where the profits are yet, which is like the dotcom boom all over again. I’ve no doubt that AIs will replace huge numbers of workers, but Jensen seems to envision a future of endless giant data centres running powerful AIs to do all our driving and being our assistants, but I think by the time we get there we’ll probably be looking at around the same number of data centres we have today, and the self-driving will always have to be done in-car for reasons of latency.

matwood 2y ago
Meta spent ~1/3 of it's capex last year on GPUs. Are they going to spend more than 11B+ in future years? The big few companies that make up a huge portion of NVDA's revenue could just hold spend steady and NVDA will contract [1]. NVDA is also in a weird spot where their primary customers are all working to build their own thing to replace/supplement NVDA. A lot like Apple did with ARM, eventually pushing Intel completely out. As algos improve and Moores law marches forward, companies will need fewer of the 'best' GPUs and get by with their in-house versions. [1]https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/03/14/the-scariest-nvidia-statistic-no-one-talking-about/ https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/03/14/the-scariest-nvidi...
- gizajob 2y ago
  Yeah but what else did Meta spend a ridiculous amount of capex on recently, can you remember? The tens of billions it spent on the metaverse were dead money and its AI ambitions could amount to the same given Meta really doesn’t have much to do with its cash other than keep Facebook and Insta on 99.999999999 uptime.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
  - matwood 2y ago
    Sure, and Meta might keep blowing 11B+/year on new GPUs. But, NVDA needs growth. They need Meta and MS and AWS and Google to spend 20%+ more/year on new GPUs and/or find new customers who can/will drop Billions/year on new GPUs. We're talking staggeringly large $. And that's not even mentioning that anyone with that sort of money is already developing their own GPUs.
- shmatt 2y ago
  As long as CEOs will try to convince the public/investors probabilistic word generators are a type of intelligence, the need for the biggest and strongest GPUs will continue to show how much closer you are to AGI If they ever give up that lie, we could see a contraction
  - gizajob 2y ago
    I’ll give it 18 months. Maybe 12.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
- mschuster91 2y ago
  > A lot like Apple did with ARM, eventually pushing Intel completely out. Apple has the unique advantage of controlling the entire stack. Anyone who wants to compete with NV on anything AI has the disadvantage of NV's full stack - OS drivers, acceleration drivers, userland libraries, compute kernels - being extremely well developed, whereas everyone else's is a bunch of crap.
- christina97 2y ago
  We are still early in the slow process of AI/ML percolating from the FAANGs all the way down to your neighborhood boutique software shop. Even if the hyperscalers stop buying Tesla, the demand lower in there chain will just grow.
url00 2y ago
Good take, I would just add that if it wasn't Nvidia it would be something else that would be blackholing in this market. Investors are obsessed with (or required to?) back short-term moonshots. It's not a great look for the health of the financial system.
paulmd 2y ago
It’s a bubble, but people have been saying it’s a bubble since before we hit the levels it will probably collapse to when the bubble pops. It might not even pop down below, say, where they were at the start of the year, even with another 6 months to run upwards in the meantime. It’s pretty easy to just be a perma-bear, especially when it’s a company like nvidia with a dedicated hater club. it’s not a coincidence that the company with the next-biggest hater club is… apple. https://paulgraham.com/fh.html https://paulgraham.com/fh.html The same people who were all in on $AMD-to-the-moon have been saying nvidia will pop for over 18 months at this point. People have been saying that MI200 will crash Nvidia’s party, no wait MI250X (it’s dual chip but presents like one, except it turns out that was a marketing lie in the datasheets!), no MI300X, wait MI400… They’ve beeen saying that google and Amazon and AMD are gonna crash the party for years and years now, and we still aren’t even close to literally anyone even having a viable alternative to CUDA despite those years of internet hot-air. Apple is literally the closest and they still only have traction on inference, Nvidia’s the only game in town for training still, which is where all the money is. Simple question, if you’re so sure: how many more years until anyone can use ROCm and not have to think about it? That’s something that only two companies offer, and both of them are in the title of this thread. Again, reminder that the foremost contender for the third place title, is shipping AI-branded (“Ryzen AI Ultra 300”) laptop CPUs that require vendor enablement to use the neural cores… you have to not only build all the software, train it hard so that edge models are viable (oops, more money for nvidia) but then also you have to convince asus and MSI and clevo and sager to support it in their drivers on an ongoing basis. That’s the third place contender, and they don’t even have the software to run on it in the first place yet. As much as people can’t help but trip over themselves predicting a pop any day now (for the last 18 months!) literally the third place contender is only just getting rolling, they are probably 10-15 years behind right now in terms of ecosystem. Might be able to do it in 5 if they hurry, but they also have to convince everyone else not to do their own stuff too - if everyone else runs around like a chicken with their head cut off, nvidia still wins. Again, the only real ecosystem threats right now are apple and sony, and sony is starting from zero too (but they have a legitimate ecosystem unlike say AMD or intel). Intel/SyCL is a technical threat but it’s powerless without a social /ecosystem consensus behind it. If it’s not a competitor taking over, that leaves a general collapse in AI, and frankly that’s just wishcasting at this point. There’s too much obvious value being delivered for it all to collapse to zero like some people are hoping. Again, not expecting - hoping. The hater club never realizes they’re haters. That self awareness is the first thing to go. Same as with the apple haters who spent the last 4 years finding any and every reason to try and dunk on apple silicon lol.

matwood 2y ago

Meta spent ~1/3 of it's capex last year on GPUs. Are they going to spend more than 11B+ in future years? The big few companies that make up a huge portion of NVDA's revenue could just hold spend steady and NVDA will contract [1]. NVDA is also in a weird spot where their primary customers are all working to build their own thing to replace/supplement NVDA. A lot like Apple did with ARM, eventually pushing Intel completely out. As algos improve and Moores law marches forward, companies will need fewer of the 'best' GPUs and get by with their in-house versions. [1]https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/03/14/the-scariest-nvidia-statistic-no-one-talking-about/ https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/03/14/the-scariest-nvidi...

gizajob 2y ago
Yeah but what else did Meta spend a ridiculous amount of capex on recently, can you remember? The tens of billions it spent on the metaverse were dead money and its AI ambitions could amount to the same given Meta really doesn’t have much to do with its cash other than keep Facebook and Insta on 99.999999999 uptime.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- matwood 2y ago
  Sure, and Meta might keep blowing 11B+/year on new GPUs. But, NVDA needs growth. They need Meta and MS and AWS and Google to spend 20%+ more/year on new GPUs and/or find new customers who can/will drop Billions/year on new GPUs. We're talking staggeringly large $. And that's not even mentioning that anyone with that sort of money is already developing their own GPUs.
shmatt 2y ago
As long as CEOs will try to convince the public/investors probabilistic word generators are a type of intelligence, the need for the biggest and strongest GPUs will continue to show how much closer you are to AGI If they ever give up that lie, we could see a contraction
- gizajob 2y ago
  I’ll give it 18 months. Maybe 12.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
mschuster91 2y ago
> A lot like Apple did with ARM, eventually pushing Intel completely out. Apple has the unique advantage of controlling the entire stack. Anyone who wants to compete with NV on anything AI has the disadvantage of NV's full stack - OS drivers, acceleration drivers, userland libraries, compute kernels - being extremely well developed, whereas everyone else's is a bunch of crap.
christina97 2y ago
We are still early in the slow process of AI/ML percolating from the FAANGs all the way down to your neighborhood boutique software shop. Even if the hyperscalers stop buying Tesla, the demand lower in there chain will just grow.

url00 2y ago

Good take, I would just add that if it wasn't Nvidia it would be something else that would be blackholing in this market. Investors are obsessed with (or required to?) back short-term moonshots. It's not a great look for the health of the financial system.

paulmd 2y ago

It’s a bubble, but people have been saying it’s a bubble since before we hit the levels it will probably collapse to when the bubble pops. It might not even pop down below, say, where they were at the start of the year, even with another 6 months to run upwards in the meantime. It’s pretty easy to just be a perma-bear, especially when it’s a company like nvidia with a dedicated hater club. it’s not a coincidence that the company with the next-biggest hater club is… apple. https://paulgraham.com/fh.html https://paulgraham.com/fh.html The same people who were all in on $AMD-to-the-moon have been saying nvidia will pop for over 18 months at this point. People have been saying that MI200 will crash Nvidia’s party, no wait MI250X (it’s dual chip but presents like one, except it turns out that was a marketing lie in the datasheets!), no MI300X, wait MI400… They’ve beeen saying that google and Amazon and AMD are gonna crash the party for years and years now, and we still aren’t even close to literally anyone even having a viable alternative to CUDA despite those years of internet hot-air. Apple is literally the closest and they still only have traction on inference, Nvidia’s the only game in town for training still, which is where all the money is. Simple question, if you’re so sure: how many more years until anyone can use ROCm and not have to think about it? That’s something that only two companies offer, and both of them are in the title of this thread. Again, reminder that the foremost contender for the third place title, is shipping AI-branded (“Ryzen AI Ultra 300”) laptop CPUs that require vendor enablement to use the neural cores… you have to not only build all the software, train it hard so that edge models are viable (oops, more money for nvidia) but then also you have to convince asus and MSI and clevo and sager to support it in their drivers on an ongoing basis. That’s the third place contender, and they don’t even have the software to run on it in the first place yet. As much as people can’t help but trip over themselves predicting a pop any day now (for the last 18 months!) literally the third place contender is only just getting rolling, they are probably 10-15 years behind right now in terms of ecosystem. Might be able to do it in 5 if they hurry, but they also have to convince everyone else not to do their own stuff too - if everyone else runs around like a chicken with their head cut off, nvidia still wins. Again, the only real ecosystem threats right now are apple and sony, and sony is starting from zero too (but they have a legitimate ecosystem unlike say AMD or intel). Intel/SyCL is a technical threat but it’s powerless without a social /ecosystem consensus behind it. If it’s not a competitor taking over, that leaves a general collapse in AI, and frankly that’s just wishcasting at this point. There’s too much obvious value being delivered for it all to collapse to zero like some people are hoping. Again, not expecting - hoping. The hater club never realizes they’re haters. That self awareness is the first thing to go. Same as with the apple haters who spent the last 4 years finding any and every reason to try and dunk on apple silicon lol.