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> Anecdotally, in conversations with other drivers, it seems that far too many people overestimate their driving habits. Or conversely, folks who are making th

> Anecdotally, in conversations with other drivers, it seems that far too many people overestimate their driving habits. Or conversely, folks who are making this argument underestimate the flexibility people want out of a car. If all you factor in is the average daily work commute, then most car owners don't need a car to begin with - even in the US. There's usually some public transport, or work-provided transportation, or opportunities to carpool with a neighbor. Not glamorous, but enough to get you through your average day. The car culture has very little to do with averages. And for what it's worth, it's the same for most other goods, from computers to kitchen appliances. I mean, how many techies need a kitchen in their home to begin with?

JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> folks who are making this argument underestimate the flexibility people want out of a car It’s anxiety. I took a parent’s EV to Sonoma and back (100 mi each way + detours + driving around Sonoma) and stopped once for a 5-minute fast charge on the way back. The battery got to a low of 5%, but that was expected. Unbeknownst to me, my father was checking the battery level remotely and freaking out that it would get that low. Let me remind you, this is in the Bay Area. There is no deficit of public chargers here. Another: I had a mid-forties friend visit me in Wyoming. I have a gas Subaru. Its fuel level getting to quarter full—good for at least 100 miles—freaked them out. To go to the grocery store. Two miles away.
- WildGreenLeave 2y ago
  I think this is partly because there is not really an alternative once you run out. Getting a jerrycan of gas from a gasstation is possible, a reasonable expectation can be made that if that happens a good samaritan will help you. Or a friend can drop by with one. The same thing cannot be said about electric cars, unless you have a good friend with a fuel generator. Even then you still have to wait for it to charge. More likely you will be towed, at least in The Netherlands they will tow you to the next parking place. If you are lucky it will be one with a charger, if you are unlucky you are once again on your own.
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > same thing cannot be said about electric cars Gas cars need a jump all the time. If this is really an anxiety of someone’s, they can carry a capacitor in the back sufficient to be charged somewhere and take the vehicle to a charger. That should work in 90%+ of situations.
    - jjav 2y ago
      > Gas cars need a jump all the time. All the time? That's some strong exaggeration there. Last time I needed a jump start was in 2016 and before that.. can't put an exact year to it but it was back in the 80s. > If this is really an anxiety of someone’s, they can carry a capacitor in the back sufficient to be charged somewhere and take the vehicle to a charger. Please describe in some detail how you expect this to work? Can you link to this "capacitor" that people should buy that can do that?
      - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
        > Last time I needed a jump start was in 2016 and before that.. can't put an exact year to it but it was back in the 80s As in it's frequent. I'd estimate about as frequent as someone running out of charge in an EV nowadays. (If you're in a hot climate, e.g. Arizona, and park your car outdoors, it literally can be every year or two.) > Can you link to this "capacitor" that people should buy that can do that? Apparently they're still marketed to commercial users, pricing in the $5k+ range. EV to EV charging, emerging on newer vehicles, would be the analog.
    - dmurray 2y ago
      Do these exist? A quick Google turns up this kind of thing [0] which, based on the price point and form factor, is aimed at tow truck operators rather than individual drivers. Costs $10k+ and will take up most of the back of your car. [0] https://jtmpower.ie/collections/electric-vehicle-charging https://jtmpower.ie/collections/electric-vehicle-charging
      - 2y ago
- ajsnigrutin 2y ago
  It's not just that, it's also time... in 99.9% of cases, the gas station is there, and you'll get gas in ~5 minutes, full tank, enough to drive another 1000km. Even if it's busy, you wait a few more minutes and get it. If you come to a busy charging station... are you really going to wait for an hour? are you going to risk it with the next one? What if that one is even busier? I live in a country which is full of people transiting every summer from norther europe to croatian beaches, like literally 10km traffic jams to go through a tunnel, police stopping transiting vehicles from leaving the highway (so the locals can use the side roads, but the gas stations can manage it, because refilling takes just a few minutes. Now replace just 10% of those german cars with electric ones, calculate how many refills you need to drive between eg. frankfurt to split, multiply by thousands going through every weekend, and there's no way to get efficiently charge all those cars, and noone is designig charging stations for peak traffic. 30km left? 8 charging stations, 15 cars waiting, will you really risk it? Or will you wait two hours at least to get a chance to charge your car?
  - matthewdgreen 2y ago
    Charging stations are extremely scalable, though. Tesla has one supercharger in California with 98 charging bays, and plans for another with 200 bays. You’ve never seen a gas station with that many fuel pumps because it would be extremely difficult to install the tanks and fuel plumbing and fire suppression systems to make it work. With electric charging you just need a parking lot.
    - ajsnigrutin 2y ago
      But you don't need that many pumps, because it takes 5 minutes to fill up the gas and pay... and then drive a 1000 more kilometers. You don't have to stay there for 1hour+ and then repeat the same after a few hundred kilometers.
      - vel0city 2y ago
        Pretty much no EVs on the market in North America take an hour or more to charge enough for a few hundred km. On the road trips I've gone on with my EV the average charge time I had was like 15 minutes. The longest was 22 minutes. I sometimes charged a little longer than as it took some time getting the kids through the bathroom and get a snack. And my EV kind of sucks for road trips. Smaller battery, only 400V instead of 800V, and a less efficient motor setup compared to other EVs on the market.
SideburnsOfDoom 2y ago
> Or conversely, folks who are making this argument underestimate the flexibility people want out of a car. ... The car culture has very little to do with averages. On the other hand, capacity planning e.g. for charging or gas stations, has everything to do with averages and the aggregate effects of people each exercising that flexibility occasionally. Needed capacity for EV charging will be lower, and more centred around longer trips, since a large percent of charging is at home, from wall sockets or L2 chargers.
rahimnathwani 2y ago
If all you factor in is the average daily work commute, then most car owners don't need a car to begin with - even in the US. There's usually some public transport, or work-provided transportation, or opportunities to carpool with a neighbor. I don't know if this is true. For example, I live in San Francisco, one of the densest cities in the US. Public transport for my typical journeys (kid's school, Costco, doctor, dentist, visiting in-laws) takes twice to four times as long as the same journey by car. I wish it were not so.
- emj 2y ago
  That argument can be made everywhere even with perfect public transport. It is usually about choices you have made. Of course in the US it is far too easy to become car dependent. If you wish it, it is most certainly possible but you have probably made some personal choices that makes it harder. Car dependency is a choice. Even in Europe the norm of cars is strong.
  - rahimnathwani 2y ago
    That argument can be made everywhere even with perfect public transport. Where I grew up (London) public transport was usually faster than driving.
    - dagw 2y ago
      Even that is only really true when traveling within zone 1 and 2. If you're further out and not going into zone 1, then driving is generally faster, especially if you have to change trains/busses.
- yurishimo 2y ago
  2x is pretty common in some parts of the Netherlands. If you’re deep within the city center, sure, public transit is faster because streets are designed intentionally to be hostile to drivers. In the suburbs or even smaller cities, driving is still faster. Hell, the trains here hardly have time to accelerate past 120kmph so driving can actually be faster than the train too unless you are going directly from city center to city center (most people need a 10 min bike ride on one or both sides). Even If North America starts taking transit seriously, the routes needed to connect the suburbs to most metro downtowns will be enormous. There will either needs to be hundreds of bus routes feeding into light rail, or perhaps better bike infrastructure can get people close enough to one of dozens of light rail stops. In any case, sprawl is currently setup to make urbanizing a slow and painful future for transit enthusiasts.
iteria 2y ago
Parents make up a significant enough part of thr population that I can't believe this is true for most people. When you have a kid you have a significant chance of impromptu emergency trip to pick up your kid. It's bad enough that I have seen this restrain people's careers because committing an hour was not viable when you might have to drop everything and get your kid, so they took lesser jobs in order to maintain that flexibility. Speaking as someone who actually lived on public transportation for years in the US, you definitely need a car in the US the moment you have a child. It was what prompted me to get a car. Working with the US's public transportation system is awful when you have to make these kinds of time sensitive trips. Taking ubers to where you need to go is prohibitively expensive (I've done this). Relying on neighbors just puts your kid's wellbeing on the grace of others which is untenable for parents. Maybe if you live somewhere like New York it's possible, but I can't see it in other US cities. You definitely need a car in the US. If you don't have one as a parent in the US, you wish you had one.
rayiner 2y ago
> If all you factor in is the average daily work commute, then most car owners don't need a car to begin with - even in the US. There's usually some public transport, or work-provided transportation, or opportunities to carpool with a neighbor. Not glamorous, but enough to get you through your average day. It’s not a matter of being glamorous or not. Public transit is with relatively few exceptions much slower than point to point driving. This is true even in places with excellent public transit, like Tokyo.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago

> folks who are making this argument underestimate the flexibility people want out of a car It’s anxiety. I took a parent’s EV to Sonoma and back (100 mi each way + detours + driving around Sonoma) and stopped once for a 5-minute fast charge on the way back. The battery got to a low of 5%, but that was expected. Unbeknownst to me, my father was checking the battery level remotely and freaking out that it would get that low. Let me remind you, this is in the Bay Area. There is no deficit of public chargers here. Another: I had a mid-forties friend visit me in Wyoming. I have a gas Subaru. Its fuel level getting to quarter full—good for at least 100 miles—freaked them out. To go to the grocery store. Two miles away.

WildGreenLeave 2y ago
I think this is partly because there is not really an alternative once you run out. Getting a jerrycan of gas from a gasstation is possible, a reasonable expectation can be made that if that happens a good samaritan will help you. Or a friend can drop by with one. The same thing cannot be said about electric cars, unless you have a good friend with a fuel generator. Even then you still have to wait for it to charge. More likely you will be towed, at least in The Netherlands they will tow you to the next parking place. If you are lucky it will be one with a charger, if you are unlucky you are once again on your own.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > same thing cannot be said about electric cars Gas cars need a jump all the time. If this is really an anxiety of someone’s, they can carry a capacitor in the back sufficient to be charged somewhere and take the vehicle to a charger. That should work in 90%+ of situations.
  - jjav 2y ago
    > Gas cars need a jump all the time. All the time? That's some strong exaggeration there. Last time I needed a jump start was in 2016 and before that.. can't put an exact year to it but it was back in the 80s. > If this is really an anxiety of someone’s, they can carry a capacitor in the back sufficient to be charged somewhere and take the vehicle to a charger. Please describe in some detail how you expect this to work? Can you link to this "capacitor" that people should buy that can do that?
    - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
      > Last time I needed a jump start was in 2016 and before that.. can't put an exact year to it but it was back in the 80s As in it's frequent. I'd estimate about as frequent as someone running out of charge in an EV nowadays. (If you're in a hot climate, e.g. Arizona, and park your car outdoors, it literally can be every year or two.) > Can you link to this "capacitor" that people should buy that can do that? Apparently they're still marketed to commercial users, pricing in the $5k+ range. EV to EV charging, emerging on newer vehicles, would be the analog.
  - dmurray 2y ago
    Do these exist? A quick Google turns up this kind of thing [0] which, based on the price point and form factor, is aimed at tow truck operators rather than individual drivers. Costs $10k+ and will take up most of the back of your car. [0] https://jtmpower.ie/collections/electric-vehicle-charging https://jtmpower.ie/collections/electric-vehicle-charging
    - 2y ago
ajsnigrutin 2y ago
It's not just that, it's also time... in 99.9% of cases, the gas station is there, and you'll get gas in ~5 minutes, full tank, enough to drive another 1000km. Even if it's busy, you wait a few more minutes and get it. If you come to a busy charging station... are you really going to wait for an hour? are you going to risk it with the next one? What if that one is even busier? I live in a country which is full of people transiting every summer from norther europe to croatian beaches, like literally 10km traffic jams to go through a tunnel, police stopping transiting vehicles from leaving the highway (so the locals can use the side roads, but the gas stations can manage it, because refilling takes just a few minutes. Now replace just 10% of those german cars with electric ones, calculate how many refills you need to drive between eg. frankfurt to split, multiply by thousands going through every weekend, and there's no way to get efficiently charge all those cars, and noone is designig charging stations for peak traffic. 30km left? 8 charging stations, 15 cars waiting, will you really risk it? Or will you wait two hours at least to get a chance to charge your car?
- matthewdgreen 2y ago
  Charging stations are extremely scalable, though. Tesla has one supercharger in California with 98 charging bays, and plans for another with 200 bays. You’ve never seen a gas station with that many fuel pumps because it would be extremely difficult to install the tanks and fuel plumbing and fire suppression systems to make it work. With electric charging you just need a parking lot.
  - ajsnigrutin 2y ago
    But you don't need that many pumps, because it takes 5 minutes to fill up the gas and pay... and then drive a 1000 more kilometers. You don't have to stay there for 1hour+ and then repeat the same after a few hundred kilometers.
    - vel0city 2y ago
      Pretty much no EVs on the market in North America take an hour or more to charge enough for a few hundred km. On the road trips I've gone on with my EV the average charge time I had was like 15 minutes. The longest was 22 minutes. I sometimes charged a little longer than as it took some time getting the kids through the bathroom and get a snack. And my EV kind of sucks for road trips. Smaller battery, only 400V instead of 800V, and a less efficient motor setup compared to other EVs on the market.

SideburnsOfDoom 2y ago

> Or conversely, folks who are making this argument underestimate the flexibility people want out of a car. ... The car culture has very little to do with averages. On the other hand, capacity planning e.g. for charging or gas stations, has everything to do with averages and the aggregate effects of people each exercising that flexibility occasionally. Needed capacity for EV charging will be lower, and more centred around longer trips, since a large percent of charging is at home, from wall sockets or L2 chargers.

rahimnathwani 2y ago

If all you factor in is the average daily work commute, then most car owners don't need a car to begin with - even in the US. There's usually some public transport, or work-provided transportation, or opportunities to carpool with a neighbor. I don't know if this is true. For example, I live in San Francisco, one of the densest cities in the US. Public transport for my typical journeys (kid's school, Costco, doctor, dentist, visiting in-laws) takes twice to four times as long as the same journey by car. I wish it were not so.

emj 2y ago
That argument can be made everywhere even with perfect public transport. It is usually about choices you have made. Of course in the US it is far too easy to become car dependent. If you wish it, it is most certainly possible but you have probably made some personal choices that makes it harder. Car dependency is a choice. Even in Europe the norm of cars is strong.
- rahimnathwani 2y ago
  That argument can be made everywhere even with perfect public transport. Where I grew up (London) public transport was usually faster than driving.
  - dagw 2y ago
    Even that is only really true when traveling within zone 1 and 2. If you're further out and not going into zone 1, then driving is generally faster, especially if you have to change trains/busses.
yurishimo 2y ago
2x is pretty common in some parts of the Netherlands. If you’re deep within the city center, sure, public transit is faster because streets are designed intentionally to be hostile to drivers. In the suburbs or even smaller cities, driving is still faster. Hell, the trains here hardly have time to accelerate past 120kmph so driving can actually be faster than the train too unless you are going directly from city center to city center (most people need a 10 min bike ride on one or both sides). Even If North America starts taking transit seriously, the routes needed to connect the suburbs to most metro downtowns will be enormous. There will either needs to be hundreds of bus routes feeding into light rail, or perhaps better bike infrastructure can get people close enough to one of dozens of light rail stops. In any case, sprawl is currently setup to make urbanizing a slow and painful future for transit enthusiasts.

iteria 2y ago

Parents make up a significant enough part of thr population that I can't believe this is true for most people. When you have a kid you have a significant chance of impromptu emergency trip to pick up your kid. It's bad enough that I have seen this restrain people's careers because committing an hour was not viable when you might have to drop everything and get your kid, so they took lesser jobs in order to maintain that flexibility. Speaking as someone who actually lived on public transportation for years in the US, you definitely need a car in the US the moment you have a child. It was what prompted me to get a car. Working with the US's public transportation system is awful when you have to make these kinds of time sensitive trips. Taking ubers to where you need to go is prohibitively expensive (I've done this). Relying on neighbors just puts your kid's wellbeing on the grace of others which is untenable for parents. Maybe if you live somewhere like New York it's possible, but I can't see it in other US cities. You definitely need a car in the US. If you don't have one as a parent in the US, you wish you had one.

rayiner 2y ago

> If all you factor in is the average daily work commute, then most car owners don't need a car to begin with - even in the US. There's usually some public transport, or work-provided transportation, or opportunities to carpool with a neighbor. Not glamorous, but enough to get you through your average day. It’s not a matter of being glamorous or not. Public transit is with relatively few exceptions much slower than point to point driving. This is true even in places with excellent public transit, like Tokyo.