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I have significant concern about this—that it is a story. I don’t doubt that it’s true in OC’s case. But I don’t think it’s representative of the impact of tec

by bertil 2y ago

I have significant concern about this—that it is a story. I don’t doubt that it’s true in OC’s case. But I don’t think it’s representative of the impact of technology. It’s the example that will get Bill Gates’ attention and end up on the stage at TED, but it might not be representative of 90% of how people are affected by technology. It might, and the story of how videos will change how people relate to each other (what made Chris Anderson buy TED, what Salman Khan has built, what Grant Sanderson a.k.a, 3blue1brown has done). It is true, anecdotally. It is a fantastic, compelling, clear story. I love that story: video is the easiest way to share any practice; people watch, learn, practice, and get good at something no one in their village knew was possible. Hurray. But when I trained as a statistician, i.e., epistemologically someone working for the state, I was told I was the opposite of a journalist: my job is not to tell stories that explain what a problem is. My job is to tell the boss how common that story really is. A story tells all the details to pull your emotions, and journalists (at the time, at least) were telling fact-check, double-verified stories. “Truth” wasn’t our goal. It is too easy to get numbers that argue for any position. Representative was what we were told we should be aiming for—so that the government makes the right decision. I’m not seeing a lot of “representative” here.

rramadass 2y ago
> I have significant concern about this—that it is a story. Your concerns are very correct but while you are willing to give him/her the benefit of the doubt, I am very very skeptical of their story; it sounds "too pat" and made up. If you look at their other replies there are too many incongruities and "movie plot tropes". I have a better chance of winning the lottery than "learning mathematics starting from long division and progressing to a good job in the current hot market of AI/ML while working at Home Depot, sleeping on a air mattress, with almost no money and a dysfunctional family, studying at coffee shops and rising through a bunch of roles starting from lowly corporate IT into high-paying data science/ML and leading teams". It is all just a bit too much and beggars belief.
- squigz 2y ago
  I genuinely don't know why you have a hard time believing that chain of events. It's really not that uncommon. What "movie tropes" are you talking about that aren't just... extremely common real life things? Sleeping on an air mattress? Working at Home Depot? Teaching yourself a skill and working your way up to a respectable position?
  - rramadass 2y ago
    Each event by itself may not be uncommon (but some like learning mathematics from absolute basics to AI/ML requirements via just Khan Academy is well-nigh impossible) but all together happening to one person which led to the claimed outcome is very very highly improbable. Real life doesn't work that way; time, energy(i.e. effort), money are all finite and wax/wane with context/environment and defines success/failure. Also speaking from my own experience, early in my career for about 3-4 years i lived alone, working a software engineer job by day and attending a computer science course/labs in evening/weekends. The lack of proper sleep/rest/nutrition, constant stress due to work and studies almost broke me. Thankfully i managed to get through that (mainly due to my robust health) but it made me realize that if you don't have a supporting family, proper nutrition/sleep and some sort of support system (i.e. family/friends) to encourage/emphathize/push/pull you as needed there is no way for an average person to overcome all hurdles particularly when they come at you all at once. There is a reason it is impossible to get out of poverty just based on your own efforts without somebody external actively lending you a helping hand via money/opportunity etc. As the saying goes; "extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence" - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraordinary_claims_require_extraordinary_evidence https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraordinary_claims_require_e...
    - 7thpower 2y ago
      Lots of people have done it. I went to college but I resent the implication that the only way to make it into one of these fields is through college. It is incredibly difficult to learn advanced math outside of an academic setting, but it is absolutely possible. Where I work we have invested in programs that take people just like me and give them an opportunity to go through a pretty rigorous 6 month program that teaches them how to develop software, work in a corporate environment, etc. There are people FAR more impressive than me who have done more with less, and when they have come out of that program many have been able to go toe to toe with our college grads. We’ve got a LOT of people who have similar stories, and we’re doing the same thing in accounting now. And it works.
- 7thpower 2y ago
  My info is in my profile, it’s not hard to figure out who I am.
- nadam 2y ago
  In my perspective it is more believable to get into AI as a young guy without higher education than someone like me: a middle-aged person with higher education with a family and a reasonable corporate software engineering job. For me to get into AI research, I guess I would have to work for less money for a while than my current boring Software Engineering job, so the golden handcuff prevents me from doing it. While for a young guy there is nothing to lose, they can shoot for the most interesting thing right away. When I was young, I graduated from university with an AI specialization, but no one cared, especially not in Eastern Europe where I live. So I got into reasonably-paying slightly boring software engineering.
  - 7thpower 2y ago
    To be fair, I am not in AI research either. Sorry if I implied that. I am on the applied side building products using GenAI, we also do some more traditional ML development but I do not spend much time there. 100% what you said about being young with nothing to lose. I had been part of a "start up" so I had equity on paper, but debt in real life. That equity ended up being worth exactly what I had paid for it ($0). I worked at Home Depot (which was a great company) and basically anything was better than making $15/hr and treading water. For what it is worth, at the time I (24) felt really old because I saw so many 21 year olds who would come in to the store and had houses and everything that I didn't. I felt like I had missed the boat. It's been over 10 years and I realize how young I was, and frankly still am. My point is that it's never too late to try something different, especially if you are starting from a position of strength (a good career in a field that requires strong problem solving skills, like software engineering).
  - rramadass 2y ago
    I am not arguing about whether a "young guy without higher education" can make it. It is "young guy without higher education and a whole lot more fundamental and severe hurdles makes it on his own without outside help/luck" that i am skeptical about.
- whatamidoingyo 2y ago
  You must have had a very comfy life growing up.
  - rramadass 2y ago
    Not at all. It is precisely because i have faced a few hurdles and overcome them that i know how difficult a whole lot more severe hurdles all at the same time are difficult to overcome without outside help/support/luck.
squigz 2y ago
I'm sorry, I'm not sure what your point is with this comment. I don't think GP was presenting their story in the context of providing statistics or objective truth about the impact of technology. They were just sharing their experience with the topic of the article.

by bertil 2y ago

rramadass 2y ago

> I have significant concern about this—that it is a story. Your concerns are very correct but while you are willing to give him/her the benefit of the doubt, I am very very skeptical of their story; it sounds "too pat" and made up. If you look at their other replies there are too many incongruities and "movie plot tropes". I have a better chance of winning the lottery than "learning mathematics starting from long division and progressing to a good job in the current hot market of AI/ML while working at Home Depot, sleeping on a air mattress, with almost no money and a dysfunctional family, studying at coffee shops and rising through a bunch of roles starting from lowly corporate IT into high-paying data science/ML and leading teams". It is all just a bit too much and beggars belief.

squigz 2y ago
I genuinely don't know why you have a hard time believing that chain of events. It's really not that uncommon. What "movie tropes" are you talking about that aren't just... extremely common real life things? Sleeping on an air mattress? Working at Home Depot? Teaching yourself a skill and working your way up to a respectable position?
- rramadass 2y ago
  Each event by itself may not be uncommon (but some like learning mathematics from absolute basics to AI/ML requirements via just Khan Academy is well-nigh impossible) but all together happening to one person which led to the claimed outcome is very very highly improbable. Real life doesn't work that way; time, energy(i.e. effort), money are all finite and wax/wane with context/environment and defines success/failure. Also speaking from my own experience, early in my career for about 3-4 years i lived alone, working a software engineer job by day and attending a computer science course/labs in evening/weekends. The lack of proper sleep/rest/nutrition, constant stress due to work and studies almost broke me. Thankfully i managed to get through that (mainly due to my robust health) but it made me realize that if you don't have a supporting family, proper nutrition/sleep and some sort of support system (i.e. family/friends) to encourage/emphathize/push/pull you as needed there is no way for an average person to overcome all hurdles particularly when they come at you all at once. There is a reason it is impossible to get out of poverty just based on your own efforts without somebody external actively lending you a helping hand via money/opportunity etc. As the saying goes; "extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence" - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraordinary_claims_require_extraordinary_evidence https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraordinary_claims_require_e...
  - 7thpower 2y ago
    Lots of people have done it. I went to college but I resent the implication that the only way to make it into one of these fields is through college. It is incredibly difficult to learn advanced math outside of an academic setting, but it is absolutely possible. Where I work we have invested in programs that take people just like me and give them an opportunity to go through a pretty rigorous 6 month program that teaches them how to develop software, work in a corporate environment, etc. There are people FAR more impressive than me who have done more with less, and when they have come out of that program many have been able to go toe to toe with our college grads. We’ve got a LOT of people who have similar stories, and we’re doing the same thing in accounting now. And it works.
7thpower 2y ago
My info is in my profile, it’s not hard to figure out who I am.
nadam 2y ago
In my perspective it is more believable to get into AI as a young guy without higher education than someone like me: a middle-aged person with higher education with a family and a reasonable corporate software engineering job. For me to get into AI research, I guess I would have to work for less money for a while than my current boring Software Engineering job, so the golden handcuff prevents me from doing it. While for a young guy there is nothing to lose, they can shoot for the most interesting thing right away. When I was young, I graduated from university with an AI specialization, but no one cared, especially not in Eastern Europe where I live. So I got into reasonably-paying slightly boring software engineering.
- 7thpower 2y ago
  To be fair, I am not in AI research either. Sorry if I implied that. I am on the applied side building products using GenAI, we also do some more traditional ML development but I do not spend much time there. 100% what you said about being young with nothing to lose. I had been part of a "start up" so I had equity on paper, but debt in real life. That equity ended up being worth exactly what I had paid for it ($0). I worked at Home Depot (which was a great company) and basically anything was better than making $15/hr and treading water. For what it is worth, at the time I (24) felt really old because I saw so many 21 year olds who would come in to the store and had houses and everything that I didn't. I felt like I had missed the boat. It's been over 10 years and I realize how young I was, and frankly still am. My point is that it's never too late to try something different, especially if you are starting from a position of strength (a good career in a field that requires strong problem solving skills, like software engineering).
- rramadass 2y ago
  I am not arguing about whether a "young guy without higher education" can make it. It is "young guy without higher education and a whole lot more fundamental and severe hurdles makes it on his own without outside help/luck" that i am skeptical about.
whatamidoingyo 2y ago
You must have had a very comfy life growing up.
- rramadass 2y ago
  Not at all. It is precisely because i have faced a few hurdles and overcome them that i know how difficult a whole lot more severe hurdles all at the same time are difficult to overcome without outside help/support/luck.

squigz 2y ago

I'm sorry, I'm not sure what your point is with this comment. I don't think GP was presenting their story in the context of providing statistics or objective truth about the impact of technology. They were just sharing their experience with the topic of the article.