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Another interesting question is, will it end Netanyahu's career if it goes through? It seems like a major deficit for a PM to be unable to travel to the majorit

Another interesting question is, will it end Netanyahu's career if it goes through? It seems like a major deficit for a PM to be unable to travel to the majority of relevant states. Most of his international trips have been to central Europe so far, and I think Europe is too invested in the ICC to circumvent it, even if some member states were to criticize this decision.

whimsicalism 2y ago
Very strongly doubt it - decisions like these probably only benefit Netanyahu's rally around the flag effect. If it feels like the whole world is against you, you rally to your leaders.
- catlikesshrimp 2y ago
  On the other hand, half of Israelis disapprove of Nethanyahu. The "warrant" would also be >something< all opposition would have agaisnt him https://m.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-799279 https://m.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/artic... (grain of salt)
  - whimsicalism 2y ago
    Significant portions of those disapproving are people who want to intensify the war in Gaza, so I doubt an ICC warrant would make them more opposed to Netanyahu. Think it is easy in the US to think Israeli public opinion somehow mirrors the US but the vast majority of people in Israel right now are pro-war (similar to the US post-9/11) and anti-two state e: not sure why I'm downvoted for something that can easily be confirmed by googling polls
    - fineIllregister 2y ago
      > Significant portions of those disapproving are people who want to intensify the war in Gaza, so I doubt an ICC warrant would make them more opposed to Netanyahu. Israel has a multi-party legislature. Netanyahu can be outflanked on the right.
      - whimsicalism 2y ago
        Certainly, but if he is outflanked on the right it won't be because of the ICC arrest warrant. If anything, that might help prevent him from being outflanked on the right.
      - alephnerd 2y ago
        > Netanyahu can be outflanked on the right He was outflanked by the right in 2019 when Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu and Lapid's Yamina withdrew it's support for Likud and joined Bennett's and Lapid's anti-Netanyahu coalition in 2021, but Bibi was able to leverage fringe Kahanist and Mizrahi parties to reclaim the top seat. Hell, Bibi would make a coalition with the Arab List/Ra'am (the Islamist Party in Israel) if it meant remaining PM (and thus retaining immunity) Traditionally, the hard right Jewish parties would always win around 20 seats in Knesset but would never be a major part of any coalition - but Bibi has alienated just about every single faction in Israel at this point trying to extend his rule.
  - dragonwriter 2y ago
    > half of Israelis disapprove of Nethanyahu Yeah but part of that half probably supports Gallant, who has split with Netanyahu, but is also charged alongside him.
- nabla9 2y ago
  Nethanyahu is survivalist but he faces uphill battle as time passes. The fact that Hamas attack was so successful under his watch has not disappeared. His career is full of scandals and corruption. He is still going to have domestic charges in near future. His war cabinet is going to collapse soon if he continues without any plans for the future of Gaza.
  - noobermin 2y ago
    But he's in power, still. His career has been "over" for years now.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
catlikesshrimp 2y ago
"How far will the US and/or Israel go to threaten or discredit the ICC leadership?" I think the US would not comment on the matter. Candidates for Office (Trump) would loudly comment about it. The US has deep political and geopolitical ties with Israel. It will never go agaisnt Israel (the country) when it matters.
- falcrist 2y ago
  I could see the US pulling back on Israel if it starts to cost them soft power elsewhere, but you're fundamentally correct. Israel is the primary instrument of US hegemony in the middle east, and they aren't going to risk losing that.
  - rusk 2y ago
    Biden has already started drawing lines though. He has been actively been distinguishing between defensive and offensive use cases and basically saying that US aid isn’t for the latter
    - nebula8804 2y ago
      Likely just political nonsense to help stop the (supposed) bleeding from the swing states. As it stands, if the election were held today polls show a massive loss for him. What even is his plan anymore? Keep beating the "im better than Trump" drum and hope for the best?
      - boppo1 2y ago
        Yes, that appears to be his plan.
      - mindslight 2y ago
        Personally I'm no fan of the two party duopoly and 2020 was my first time voting for a mainstream party in a national election (after decades of voting). Lest we forget, the last Trump term had a paralyzed federal government incapable (unwilling?) to respond to national or international crises, the polar opposite of leadership with the bully pulpit used to divide as if still campaigning, and culminated in an economic catastrophe of massive inflation that we're still reeling from today. And that was all before the chode embraced wholesale-reality-rejecting big lies, and grew a massive chip on his shoulder indicating a desire for straight revenge on his political opponents. So at least to me, affirmatively supporting the conservative option of Biden simply so we continue to have a country to criticize, despite all of the abhorrent status quo military industrial surveillance complex shit continuing to go on, has a pretty strong appeal. If "I'm better than Trump" can't carry the election on its own, then frankly we're doomed.
phone8675309 2y ago
The current political situation in the US gives me every indication that the US would provide Netanyahu asylum if these warrants to through. The US has withdrawn from the Rome Statute and therefore has no obligation to arrest him.
- tptacek 2y ago
  Why would he need US asylum? Israel isn't an ICC signatory.
  - rusk 2y ago
    When the horror of what Israel has done dawns on them they might want to hand him over themselves.
    - saintkaye 2y ago
      I genuinely don’t understand this opinion. Israel was viscously attacked unprovoked (regardless what you think of the history of the two orgs) by the organization that governs the province. They’re states goal is to demilitarize the area while their enemy insists on playing out the war in highly populated urban areas. This isn’t a guerilla war either, it’s the actual official government party. One who has actively promised sequels of the attack. What would you do in such a situation?
      - input_sh 2y ago
        [flagged]
        tptacek 2y ago
        It's a small fraction of the death tolls in Syria and Yemen, and, of course, in Afghanistan.
        whimsicalism 2y ago
bawolff 2y ago
His career is already in a bad place as far as i understand. If anything it might help him because he could cry that they are unfairly (regardless of if true) out to get him.
amirhirsch 2y ago
His career was already over. Nearly all Israelis would support exchanging Netanyahu for hostages, again.
- xenospn 2y ago
  As a former Israeli, I cannot say this enough: please take Netanyahu, dig the deepest hole you can, throw him in there, lock it up and throw away the key.
  - cromka 2y ago
    You mean him, not them?
    - rbanffy 2y ago
      There are a couple people that should be handed to the ICC.
    - xenospn 2y ago
      I do! Thank you
  - rbanffy 2y ago
    I would strongly suggest handing him over to the ICC and signing the Rome treaty. Let the ICC deal with what to do with him exactly.
  - anovick 2y ago
    You claiming to have been Israeli in the past (what does that even mean?) does not give you any greater validity in criticizing Netanyahu. A majority of Israelis voted for this government's representatives, including Netanyahu, some specifically voting for him (his party has almost x2 as many votes as the second-biggest voted party). Democracy doesn't work only when the representatives that you like are elected.
dang 2y ago
We detached this subthread from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40419037 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40419037. (Nothing wrong with the reply, but I'm trying to prune the top-heaviest subthreads.)
gklitz 2y ago
It didn’t end Putins career to have arrest warrants issued for him. So I doubt it would effect Netanyahu

whimsicalism 2y ago

Very strongly doubt it - decisions like these probably only benefit Netanyahu's rally around the flag effect. If it feels like the whole world is against you, you rally to your leaders.

catlikesshrimp 2y ago
On the other hand, half of Israelis disapprove of Nethanyahu. The "warrant" would also be >something< all opposition would have agaisnt him https://m.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-799279 https://m.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/artic... (grain of salt)
- whimsicalism 2y ago
  Significant portions of those disapproving are people who want to intensify the war in Gaza, so I doubt an ICC warrant would make them more opposed to Netanyahu. Think it is easy in the US to think Israeli public opinion somehow mirrors the US but the vast majority of people in Israel right now are pro-war (similar to the US post-9/11) and anti-two state e: not sure why I'm downvoted for something that can easily be confirmed by googling polls
  - fineIllregister 2y ago
    > Significant portions of those disapproving are people who want to intensify the war in Gaza, so I doubt an ICC warrant would make them more opposed to Netanyahu. Israel has a multi-party legislature. Netanyahu can be outflanked on the right.
    - whimsicalism 2y ago
      Certainly, but if he is outflanked on the right it won't be because of the ICC arrest warrant. If anything, that might help prevent him from being outflanked on the right.
    - alephnerd 2y ago
      > Netanyahu can be outflanked on the right He was outflanked by the right in 2019 when Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu and Lapid's Yamina withdrew it's support for Likud and joined Bennett's and Lapid's anti-Netanyahu coalition in 2021, but Bibi was able to leverage fringe Kahanist and Mizrahi parties to reclaim the top seat. Hell, Bibi would make a coalition with the Arab List/Ra'am (the Islamist Party in Israel) if it meant remaining PM (and thus retaining immunity) Traditionally, the hard right Jewish parties would always win around 20 seats in Knesset but would never be a major part of any coalition - but Bibi has alienated just about every single faction in Israel at this point trying to extend his rule.
- dragonwriter 2y ago
  > half of Israelis disapprove of Nethanyahu Yeah but part of that half probably supports Gallant, who has split with Netanyahu, but is also charged alongside him.
nabla9 2y ago
Nethanyahu is survivalist but he faces uphill battle as time passes. The fact that Hamas attack was so successful under his watch has not disappeared. His career is full of scandals and corruption. He is still going to have domestic charges in near future. His war cabinet is going to collapse soon if he continues without any plans for the future of Gaza.
- noobermin 2y ago
  But he's in power, still. His career has been "over" for years now.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]

catlikesshrimp 2y ago

"How far will the US and/or Israel go to threaten or discredit the ICC leadership?" I think the US would not comment on the matter. Candidates for Office (Trump) would loudly comment about it. The US has deep political and geopolitical ties with Israel. It will never go agaisnt Israel (the country) when it matters.

falcrist 2y ago
I could see the US pulling back on Israel if it starts to cost them soft power elsewhere, but you're fundamentally correct. Israel is the primary instrument of US hegemony in the middle east, and they aren't going to risk losing that.
- rusk 2y ago
  Biden has already started drawing lines though. He has been actively been distinguishing between defensive and offensive use cases and basically saying that US aid isn’t for the latter
  - nebula8804 2y ago
    Likely just political nonsense to help stop the (supposed) bleeding from the swing states. As it stands, if the election were held today polls show a massive loss for him. What even is his plan anymore? Keep beating the "im better than Trump" drum and hope for the best?
    - boppo1 2y ago
      Yes, that appears to be his plan.
    - mindslight 2y ago
      Personally I'm no fan of the two party duopoly and 2020 was my first time voting for a mainstream party in a national election (after decades of voting). Lest we forget, the last Trump term had a paralyzed federal government incapable (unwilling?) to respond to national or international crises, the polar opposite of leadership with the bully pulpit used to divide as if still campaigning, and culminated in an economic catastrophe of massive inflation that we're still reeling from today. And that was all before the chode embraced wholesale-reality-rejecting big lies, and grew a massive chip on his shoulder indicating a desire for straight revenge on his political opponents. So at least to me, affirmatively supporting the conservative option of Biden simply so we continue to have a country to criticize, despite all of the abhorrent status quo military industrial surveillance complex shit continuing to go on, has a pretty strong appeal. If "I'm better than Trump" can't carry the election on its own, then frankly we're doomed.

phone8675309 2y ago

The current political situation in the US gives me every indication that the US would provide Netanyahu asylum if these warrants to through. The US has withdrawn from the Rome Statute and therefore has no obligation to arrest him.

tptacek 2y ago
Why would he need US asylum? Israel isn't an ICC signatory.
- rusk 2y ago
  When the horror of what Israel has done dawns on them they might want to hand him over themselves.
  - saintkaye 2y ago
    I genuinely don’t understand this opinion. Israel was viscously attacked unprovoked (regardless what you think of the history of the two orgs) by the organization that governs the province. They’re states goal is to demilitarize the area while their enemy insists on playing out the war in highly populated urban areas. This isn’t a guerilla war either, it’s the actual official government party. One who has actively promised sequels of the attack. What would you do in such a situation?
    - input_sh 2y ago
      [flagged]
      - tptacek 2y ago
        It's a small fraction of the death tolls in Syria and Yemen, and, of course, in Afghanistan.
        whimsicalism 2y ago

bawolff 2y ago

His career is already in a bad place as far as i understand. If anything it might help him because he could cry that they are unfairly (regardless of if true) out to get him.

amirhirsch 2y ago

His career was already over. Nearly all Israelis would support exchanging Netanyahu for hostages, again.

xenospn 2y ago
As a former Israeli, I cannot say this enough: please take Netanyahu, dig the deepest hole you can, throw him in there, lock it up and throw away the key.
- cromka 2y ago
  You mean him, not them?
  - rbanffy 2y ago
    There are a couple people that should be handed to the ICC.
  - xenospn 2y ago
    I do! Thank you
- rbanffy 2y ago
  I would strongly suggest handing him over to the ICC and signing the Rome treaty. Let the ICC deal with what to do with him exactly.
- anovick 2y ago
  You claiming to have been Israeli in the past (what does that even mean?) does not give you any greater validity in criticizing Netanyahu. A majority of Israelis voted for this government's representatives, including Netanyahu, some specifically voting for him (his party has almost x2 as many votes as the second-biggest voted party). Democracy doesn't work only when the representatives that you like are elected.

dang 2y ago

We detached this subthread from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40419037 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40419037. (Nothing wrong with the reply, but I'm trying to prune the top-heaviest subthreads.)

gklitz 2y ago

It didn’t end Putins career to have arrest warrants issued for him. So I doubt it would effect Netanyahu