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IMO, things are looking like somebody will pull AGI outside of their garage once computing gets cheaper enough, and all the focus on those monstrosities based o
by marcosdumay 2y ago
IMO, things are looking like somebody will pull AGI outside of their garage once computing gets cheaper enough, and all the focus on those monstrosities based on clearly dead-end paradigms will only serve to make us unable to react to the real thing.
- ben_w 2y agoCould be. But that's why I put any value at all into what Yudkowsky has to say, even though LeCun correctly says that talking about this stuff today is like talking about large scale aviation safety in the 1920s: Yudkowsky is talking about universal incentives that don't rely on any particular paradigm. Metaphorically, he's talking about climate change and LeCun is saying we can't predict the weather a month from now — in both the metaphor and AI these are true satements, so you can see why it's convincing to a lot of people, but it's actually a claim about a different thing. (Yudkowsky may also just be wrong; the metaphor reminds me like many of the climate scientists a century ago who thought it would be a slow transition and an improvement, though obviously I hope he's making the opposite mistake on both counts given how pessimistic he is).