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This is just one fatal assumption that western had on Russia: they don’t know how to innovate and adapt to modern warfare. In fact it gave the western such im

This is just one fatal assumption that western had on Russia: they don’t know how to innovate and adapt to modern warfare. In fact it gave the western such impression only because it was not in a serious war for a long time.

nradov 2y ago
If anything it's the opposite. Western military leaders have been shocked by how the Russians keep making the same avoidable errors over and over, and how long their cycle times are to adapt. Even today they don't really have a unified joint staff capable of gathering lessons learned and rapidly turning those into formal doctrine changes. But they do have the advantage of greater manpower and enormous equipment stockpiles, which compensates for a multitude of errors.
- dragonwriter 2y ago
  Yeah, if there was a miscalculation of Russian capacity, it was not its ability to fight well, but its ability to absorb the cost of, and willingness to continue the campaign despite, fighting poorly, which is why actually scaling up production wasn’t an immediate response. Russia has taken (by the most conservative estimates) on the order of 10x both killed and wounded as the Soviet Union itself took in the nearly decade-long war in Afghanistan which was a major contribution to the collapse of the USSR in a little over two years.
f38zf5vdt 2y ago
The West was startled by the fact that the Ukrainians were able to rout the Russians. Most Western analysts expected Russian to win in the event of an invasion and Zelenskyy pleaded with Putin not to invade the night prior. That Russia took almost 3 years and a presumed 300-500k casualties to begin deploying basic air support with guided glide bombs, like the west has been doing for 25 years, was indeed surprising. Every military has the ability to innovate and adapt because the life of every member of the military is on the line each day. It took an astounding number of embarrassments and lives lost for the Russian military to adapt, including a near coup by PMC Wagner.
- up2isomorphism 2y ago
  Quote: "That Russia took almost 3 years and a presumed 300-500k casualties to begin deploying basic air support with guided glide bombs, like the west has been doing for 25 years, was indeed surprising." Just to point out FAB-500 glider bomb use was already recorded in March 2023, so it took Russian a year not 3 year, so your perception is factually wrong. BTW, to emphasize the low starting status of Russian military at the beginning of the war does not defend our mistake either, rather it reinforces that argument.

nradov 2y ago

If anything it's the opposite. Western military leaders have been shocked by how the Russians keep making the same avoidable errors over and over, and how long their cycle times are to adapt. Even today they don't really have a unified joint staff capable of gathering lessons learned and rapidly turning those into formal doctrine changes. But they do have the advantage of greater manpower and enormous equipment stockpiles, which compensates for a multitude of errors.

dragonwriter 2y ago
Yeah, if there was a miscalculation of Russian capacity, it was not its ability to fight well, but its ability to absorb the cost of, and willingness to continue the campaign despite, fighting poorly, which is why actually scaling up production wasn’t an immediate response. Russia has taken (by the most conservative estimates) on the order of 10x both killed and wounded as the Soviet Union itself took in the nearly decade-long war in Afghanistan which was a major contribution to the collapse of the USSR in a little over two years.

f38zf5vdt 2y ago

The West was startled by the fact that the Ukrainians were able to rout the Russians. Most Western analysts expected Russian to win in the event of an invasion and Zelenskyy pleaded with Putin not to invade the night prior. That Russia took almost 3 years and a presumed 300-500k casualties to begin deploying basic air support with guided glide bombs, like the west has been doing for 25 years, was indeed surprising. Every military has the ability to innovate and adapt because the life of every member of the military is on the line each day. It took an astounding number of embarrassments and lives lost for the Russian military to adapt, including a near coup by PMC Wagner.

up2isomorphism 2y ago
Quote: "That Russia took almost 3 years and a presumed 300-500k casualties to begin deploying basic air support with guided glide bombs, like the west has been doing for 25 years, was indeed surprising." Just to point out FAB-500 glider bomb use was already recorded in March 2023, so it took Russian a year not 3 year, so your perception is factually wrong. BTW, to emphasize the low starting status of Russian military at the beginning of the war does not defend our mistake either, rather it reinforces that argument.