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Adding a disclaimer for people unaware of context (I feel same as you): OpenAI made a large commitment to super-alignment in the not-so-distant past. I beleive

Adding a disclaimer for people unaware of context (I feel same as you): OpenAI made a large commitment to super-alignment in the not-so-distant past. I beleive mid-2023. Famously, it has always taken AI Safety™ very seriously. Regardless of anyone's feelings on the need for a dedicated team for it, you can chalk to one up as another instance of OpenAI cough leadership cough speaking out of both sides of it's mouth as is convenient. The only true north star is fame, glory, and user count, dressed up as humble "research" To really stress this: OpenAI's still-present cofounder shared yesterday on a podcast that they expect AGI in ~2 years and ASI (superpassing human intelligence) by end of the decade.

jasonfarnon 2y ago
To really stress this: OpenAI's still-present cofounder shared yesterday on a podcast that they expect AGI in ~2 years and ASI (superpassing human intelligence) by end of the decade. What's his track record on promises/predictions of this sort? I wasn't paying attention until pretty recently.
- refulgentis 2y ago
  honestly, I hadn't heard of him until 24-48 hours ago :x (he's also the new superalignment lead, I can't remember if I heard that first, or the podcast stuff first. Dwarkesh Patel podcast for anyone curious. Only saw a clip of it)
- NomDePlum 2y ago
  As a child I used to watch a TV programme called Tomorrows World. On it they predicted these very same things in similar timeframes. That programme aired in the 1980's. Other than vested promises is there much to indicate it's close at all? Empty promises aside there isn't really any indication of that being likely at all.
  - zdragnar 2y ago
    In the early 1980's we were just coming out of the first AI winter and everyone was getting optimistic again. I suspect there will be at least continued commercial use of the current tech, though I still suspect this crop is another dead end in the hunt for AGI.
    - NomDePlum 2y ago
      I'd agree with the commercial use element. It will definitely find areas that it can be applied. Just currently it's general application by a lot of the user base feel more like early Facebook apps or subjectively better Lotus Notes than an actual leap forward of any sort.
  - Davidzheng 2y ago
    are we living in the same world?????
    - NomDePlum 2y ago
      I would assume so. I've spent some time looking into AI for software development and general use and I'm both slightly impressed and at the same time don't really get the hype. It's better and quicker search at present for the area I specialise in. It's not currently even close to being a x2 multiplier for me, it possibly even a negative impact, probably not but I'm still exploring. Which feels detached from the promises. Interesting but at present more hype than hyper. Also, it's energy inefficient so cost heavy. I feel that will likely cripple a lot of use cases. What's your take?
    - refulgentis 2y ago
      Yes Incredulous reactions don't aid whatever you intend to communicate - there's a reason why everyone knows what AI the last 12 months, it's not made up or a monoculture. It would be very odd to expect discontinuation of commercial use without a black swan event
N0b8ez 2y ago
>To really stress this: OpenAI's still-present cofounder shared yesterday on a podcast that they expect AGI in ~2 years and ASI (superpassing human intelligence) by end of the decade. Link? Is the ~2 year timeline a common estimate in the field?
- ctoth 2y ago
  https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/john-schulman https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/john-schulman
  - N0b8ez 2y ago
    Is the quote you're thinking of the one at 19:11? > I don't think it's going to happen next year, it's still useful to have the conversation and maybe it's like two or three years instead. This doesn't seem like a super definite prediction. The "two or three" might have just been a hypothetical.
    - HarHarVeryFunny 2y ago
      Right at the end of the interview Schulman says that he expects AGI to be able to replace himself in 5 years. He seemed a bit sheepish when saying it, so hard to tell if he really believed it, or if was just saying what he'd been told to say (I can't believe Altman is allowing employees to be interviewed like this without telling them what they can't say, and what they should say).
- dboreham 2y ago
  It's the "fusion in 20 years" of AI?
  - dinvlad 2y ago
    Just like Tesla "FSD" :-)
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]

jasonfarnon 2y ago

To really stress this: OpenAI's still-present cofounder shared yesterday on a podcast that they expect AGI in ~2 years and ASI (superpassing human intelligence) by end of the decade. What's his track record on promises/predictions of this sort? I wasn't paying attention until pretty recently.

refulgentis 2y ago
honestly, I hadn't heard of him until 24-48 hours ago :x (he's also the new superalignment lead, I can't remember if I heard that first, or the podcast stuff first. Dwarkesh Patel podcast for anyone curious. Only saw a clip of it)
NomDePlum 2y ago
As a child I used to watch a TV programme called Tomorrows World. On it they predicted these very same things in similar timeframes. That programme aired in the 1980's. Other than vested promises is there much to indicate it's close at all? Empty promises aside there isn't really any indication of that being likely at all.
- zdragnar 2y ago
  In the early 1980's we were just coming out of the first AI winter and everyone was getting optimistic again. I suspect there will be at least continued commercial use of the current tech, though I still suspect this crop is another dead end in the hunt for AGI.
  - NomDePlum 2y ago
    I'd agree with the commercial use element. It will definitely find areas that it can be applied. Just currently it's general application by a lot of the user base feel more like early Facebook apps or subjectively better Lotus Notes than an actual leap forward of any sort.
- Davidzheng 2y ago
  are we living in the same world?????
  - NomDePlum 2y ago
    I would assume so. I've spent some time looking into AI for software development and general use and I'm both slightly impressed and at the same time don't really get the hype. It's better and quicker search at present for the area I specialise in. It's not currently even close to being a x2 multiplier for me, it possibly even a negative impact, probably not but I'm still exploring. Which feels detached from the promises. Interesting but at present more hype than hyper. Also, it's energy inefficient so cost heavy. I feel that will likely cripple a lot of use cases. What's your take?
  - refulgentis 2y ago
    Yes Incredulous reactions don't aid whatever you intend to communicate - there's a reason why everyone knows what AI the last 12 months, it's not made up or a monoculture. It would be very odd to expect discontinuation of commercial use without a black swan event

N0b8ez 2y ago

>To really stress this: OpenAI's still-present cofounder shared yesterday on a podcast that they expect AGI in ~2 years and ASI (superpassing human intelligence) by end of the decade. Link? Is the ~2 year timeline a common estimate in the field?

ctoth 2y ago
https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/john-schulman https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/john-schulman
- N0b8ez 2y ago
  Is the quote you're thinking of the one at 19:11? > I don't think it's going to happen next year, it's still useful to have the conversation and maybe it's like two or three years instead. This doesn't seem like a super definite prediction. The "two or three" might have just been a hypothetical.
  - HarHarVeryFunny 2y ago
    Right at the end of the interview Schulman says that he expects AGI to be able to replace himself in 5 years. He seemed a bit sheepish when saying it, so hard to tell if he really believed it, or if was just saying what he'd been told to say (I can't believe Altman is allowing employees to be interviewed like this without telling them what they can't say, and what they should say).
dboreham 2y ago
It's the "fusion in 20 years" of AI?
- dinvlad 2y ago
  Just like Tesla "FSD" :-)
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]