3 ms·
No. US population: 330M Deaths per year (approx): 3.46M (call it 1% of the population) 2.5% of deaths: 86,500 people Number of flu infections, per year: 9M
by PaulDavisThe1st 2y ago
No.
US population: 330M
Deaths per year (approx): 3.46M (call it 1% of the population)
2.5% of deaths: 86,500 people
Number of flu infections, per year: 9M .. 41M
2.5% chance of dying of flu: 225,000 .. 1,025,000 people
Number of deaths due to flu, per year: 4,900 .. 51,000
Actual chance of dying of flu (2010-2022): 0.01% - 0.5% [0]
[0] min ((4900/41000000), 4900/9000000)) .. max (51000/41000000, 51000/9000000)
- marcosdumay 2y agoThe OP didn't say "per year". You added that one gratuitously.
- PaulDavisThe1st 2y agoIt makes no difference at all. But whatever set of statistics you use has to represent the same period. We could use daily deaths from flu, or decadal deaths from flu, or forthnightly deaths from flu .. as long as the total deaths we're comparing with cover the same period.
- DiggyJohnson 2y agoThanks for this breakdown, I was too tired to protest but I completely agree with your interdiction.
- saalweachter 2y agoI mean, I began by saying: > the IFR of the seasonal flu is around 0.1% We're all going to die some day. Based on current causes of death, there's a 20% chance, give or take, that it will be heart disease. A 20% chance it will be cancer. A 2% chance one of us will die from kidney failure. And around a 1.5% chance it will be from the seasonal flu, which has an IFR of 0.1% or less. Anyway, bringing this back around to the Spanish flu, it's fascinating, to me, that if you were alive in 1918, there was around a 1% chance you would die, that year, of the Spanish flu, and around a 2% chance you would die, years or decades later, of a seasonal flu. Pandemics get you upfront, all at once, epidemics get us eventually, over time.