6 ms·

2.5% of deaths caused by flu is not the same as a 2.5% chance of dying of the flu, though.

marcosdumay 2y ago
Unless you do something unusual, that's almost exactly what it means. (Almost exactly because new causes appear, and those chances won't stay constant during your life.)
- PaulDavisThe1st 2y ago
  No. US population: 330M Deaths per year (approx): 3.46M (call it 1% of the population) 2.5% of deaths: 86,500 people Number of flu infections, per year: 9M .. 41M 2.5% chance of dying of flu: 225,000 .. 1,025,000 people Number of deaths due to flu, per year: 4,900 .. 51,000 Actual chance of dying of flu (2010-2022): 0.01% - 0.5% [0] [0] min ((4900/41000000), 4900/9000000)) .. max (51000/41000000, 51000/9000000)
  - marcosdumay 2y ago
    The OP didn't say "per year". You added that one gratuitously.
    - PaulDavisThe1st 2y ago
      It makes no difference at all. But whatever set of statistics you use has to represent the same period. We could use daily deaths from flu, or decadal deaths from flu, or forthnightly deaths from flu .. as long as the total deaths we're comparing with cover the same period.
      - DiggyJohnson 2y ago
        Thanks for this breakdown, I was too tired to protest but I completely agree with your interdiction.
      - saalweachter 2y ago
        I mean, I began by saying: > the IFR of the seasonal flu is around 0.1% We're all going to die some day. Based on current causes of death, there's a 20% chance, give or take, that it will be heart disease. A 20% chance it will be cancer. A 2% chance one of us will die from kidney failure. And around a 1.5% chance it will be from the seasonal flu, which has an IFR of 0.1% or less. Anyway, bringing this back around to the Spanish flu, it's fascinating, to me, that if you were alive in 1918, there was around a 1% chance you would die, that year, of the Spanish flu, and around a 2% chance you would die, years or decades later, of a seasonal flu. Pandemics get you upfront, all at once, epidemics get us eventually, over time.
- yumong 2y ago
  "x% chance dying of the flu" has two vastly different meanings. "If you die, then the cause of death is to 2.5% the flu" is one meaning. Likely close to correct. "With 2.5% you will die this year a death caused by the flu" is another. Unlikely to be correct.

Unless you do something unusual, that's almost exactly what it means. (Almost exactly because new causes appear, and those chances won't stay constant during your life.)

PaulDavisThe1st 2y ago
No. US population: 330M Deaths per year (approx): 3.46M (call it 1% of the population) 2.5% of deaths: 86,500 people Number of flu infections, per year: 9M .. 41M 2.5% chance of dying of flu: 225,000 .. 1,025,000 people Number of deaths due to flu, per year: 4,900 .. 51,000 Actual chance of dying of flu (2010-2022): 0.01% - 0.5% [0] [0] min ((4900/41000000), 4900/9000000)) .. max (51000/41000000, 51000/9000000)
- marcosdumay 2y ago
  The OP didn't say "per year". You added that one gratuitously.
  - PaulDavisThe1st 2y ago
    It makes no difference at all. But whatever set of statistics you use has to represent the same period. We could use daily deaths from flu, or decadal deaths from flu, or forthnightly deaths from flu .. as long as the total deaths we're comparing with cover the same period.
    - DiggyJohnson 2y ago
      Thanks for this breakdown, I was too tired to protest but I completely agree with your interdiction.
    - saalweachter 2y ago
      I mean, I began by saying: > the IFR of the seasonal flu is around 0.1% We're all going to die some day. Based on current causes of death, there's a 20% chance, give or take, that it will be heart disease. A 20% chance it will be cancer. A 2% chance one of us will die from kidney failure. And around a 1.5% chance it will be from the seasonal flu, which has an IFR of 0.1% or less. Anyway, bringing this back around to the Spanish flu, it's fascinating, to me, that if you were alive in 1918, there was around a 1% chance you would die, that year, of the Spanish flu, and around a 2% chance you would die, years or decades later, of a seasonal flu. Pandemics get you upfront, all at once, epidemics get us eventually, over time.
yumong 2y ago
"x% chance dying of the flu" has two vastly different meanings. "If you die, then the cause of death is to 2.5% the flu" is one meaning. Likely close to correct. "With 2.5% you will die this year a death caused by the flu" is another. Unlikely to be correct.