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Fun fact: while the IFR of the seasonal flu is around 0.1%, there's around a 2.5% chance you will die from it. The thing about endemic diseases is that we get

Fun fact: while the IFR of the seasonal flu is around 0.1%, there's around a 2.5% chance you will die from it. The thing about endemic diseases is that we get them over and over and over. Eventually it gets you. I was really hopeful at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic that we would start taking the flu more seriously. There was essentially no flu season that year because of the precautions taken for COVID; we are actually removing one of the strains from flu vaccines next year because it went extinct. Things have changed since 2019. In 2023, only around 1.5% of deaths were from the flu; of course, another 1.5% of deaths were from COVID. So as things stand now, instead of a 2.5% chance that we will eventually be killed by our major endemic respiratory disease, there's a 3% chance we will eventually be killed by one of our two major endemic respiratory diseases.

onlyrealcuzzo 2y ago
> The thing about endemic diseases is that we get them over and over and over. Eventually it gets you. The bigger thing is that the IFR differs dramatically based on age, and eventually you either die from something else or get old. If it weren't for the IFR going up with age, you'd still have a very low lifetime chance of dying from the flu.
- saalweachter 2y ago
  Yes and no; younger people also die less. The flu death rate in the 0-4 age bracket for the 2022-2023 was 1.2 per 100k, compared to 26.6 per 100k for the 65+ age bracket. Meanwhile, the death rate of the 1-4 age bracket [different sources; different buckets] was only 28 per 100k, compared to 2000 per 100k for ages 65-74 or 15,000 per 100k for ages 85+. So, flu deaths are a larger percentage of child deaths than than elder deaths, even though most people who die of the flu are old. The answer to "How can we most readily lower child mortality?" is always going to be "Keep infectious diseases under control."
  - onlyrealcuzzo 2y ago
    The largest portion BY FAR of everyone's lives (beside infant fatalities) is the portion between 4 and 65.
DiggyJohnson 2y ago
There is no way the fatality rate of someone with my health profile or the health profile of the average HN user has a 2.5% chance to die from the flu this year. That must be including sick and/or elderly.
- saalweachter 2y ago
  Most people don't die every year; 2.5% [well, 1.5% last year] of the people who die, die of the flu.
  - DiggyJohnson 2y ago
    Thanks, apologies for the misunderstanding. I wonder what the number is for pneumonia.
  - triceratops 2y ago
    > Most people don't die every year I don't think anyone dies every year. Just once. /s
  - haswell 2y ago
    2.5% of deaths caused by flu is not the same as a 2.5% chance of dying of the flu, though.
    - marcosdumay 2y ago
      Unless you do something unusual, that's almost exactly what it means. (Almost exactly because new causes appear, and those chances won't stay constant during your life.)
      - PaulDavisThe1st 2y ago
        No. US population: 330M Deaths per year (approx): 3.46M (call it 1% of the population) 2.5% of deaths: 86,500 people Number of flu infections, per year: 9M .. 41M 2.5% chance of dying of flu: 225,000 .. 1,025,000 people Number of deaths due to flu, per year: 4,900 .. 51,000 Actual chance of dying of flu (2010-2022): 0.01% - 0.5% [0] [0] min ((4900/41000000), 4900/9000000)) .. max (51000/41000000, 51000/9000000)
logicchains 2y ago
>Fun fact: while the IFR of the seasonal flu is around 0.1%, there's around a 2.5% chance you will die from it. That's an incorrect statement unless the age distribution of people on this forum exactly matches the age distribution of the US population, which it doesn't. The overwhelming majority of flu deaths are concentrated in the elderly; someone under sixty is orders of magnitude less likely to die than someone older than eighty.
- HFguy 2y ago
  I don't think this has to be incorrect. Or that your "unless the age distribution...." needs to be true either. Everyone eventually dies. When that happens, as things currently stand, it will be a 2.5% chance the cause will be the flu. You might die young or old. Across those possibilities, it is 2.5% That can be consistent with the idea that if you were to die next year, it probably (i.e., much less than 2.5%) won't be the flu because you are a young person.

onlyrealcuzzo 2y ago

> The thing about endemic diseases is that we get them over and over and over. Eventually it gets you. The bigger thing is that the IFR differs dramatically based on age, and eventually you either die from something else or get old. If it weren't for the IFR going up with age, you'd still have a very low lifetime chance of dying from the flu.

saalweachter 2y ago
Yes and no; younger people also die less. The flu death rate in the 0-4 age bracket for the 2022-2023 was 1.2 per 100k, compared to 26.6 per 100k for the 65+ age bracket. Meanwhile, the death rate of the 1-4 age bracket [different sources; different buckets] was only 28 per 100k, compared to 2000 per 100k for ages 65-74 or 15,000 per 100k for ages 85+. So, flu deaths are a larger percentage of child deaths than than elder deaths, even though most people who die of the flu are old. The answer to "How can we most readily lower child mortality?" is always going to be "Keep infectious diseases under control."
- onlyrealcuzzo 2y ago
  The largest portion BY FAR of everyone's lives (beside infant fatalities) is the portion between 4 and 65.

DiggyJohnson 2y ago

There is no way the fatality rate of someone with my health profile or the health profile of the average HN user has a 2.5% chance to die from the flu this year. That must be including sick and/or elderly.

saalweachter 2y ago
Most people don't die every year; 2.5% [well, 1.5% last year] of the people who die, die of the flu.
- DiggyJohnson 2y ago
  Thanks, apologies for the misunderstanding. I wonder what the number is for pneumonia.
- triceratops 2y ago
  > Most people don't die every year I don't think anyone dies every year. Just once. /s
- haswell 2y ago
  2.5% of deaths caused by flu is not the same as a 2.5% chance of dying of the flu, though.
  - marcosdumay 2y ago
    Unless you do something unusual, that's almost exactly what it means. (Almost exactly because new causes appear, and those chances won't stay constant during your life.)
    - PaulDavisThe1st 2y ago
      No. US population: 330M Deaths per year (approx): 3.46M (call it 1% of the population) 2.5% of deaths: 86,500 people Number of flu infections, per year: 9M .. 41M 2.5% chance of dying of flu: 225,000 .. 1,025,000 people Number of deaths due to flu, per year: 4,900 .. 51,000 Actual chance of dying of flu (2010-2022): 0.01% - 0.5% [0] [0] min ((4900/41000000), 4900/9000000)) .. max (51000/41000000, 51000/9000000)

logicchains 2y ago

>Fun fact: while the IFR of the seasonal flu is around 0.1%, there's around a 2.5% chance you will die from it. That's an incorrect statement unless the age distribution of people on this forum exactly matches the age distribution of the US population, which it doesn't. The overwhelming majority of flu deaths are concentrated in the elderly; someone under sixty is orders of magnitude less likely to die than someone older than eighty.

HFguy 2y ago
I don't think this has to be incorrect. Or that your "unless the age distribution...." needs to be true either. Everyone eventually dies. When that happens, as things currently stand, it will be a 2.5% chance the cause will be the flu. You might die young or old. Across those possibilities, it is 2.5% That can be consistent with the idea that if you were to die next year, it probably (i.e., much less than 2.5%) won't be the flu because you are a young person.