5 ms·

Fear of AGI is not based on Altman’s latest brews. Look at the progress curve of AI in general is one way to get a feeling for it. The other one, which I prefer

Fear of AGI is not based on Altman’s latest brews. Look at the progress curve of AI in general is one way to get a feeling for it. The other one, which I prefer, is looking at existing AIs for which we thought human ingenuity was top notch and how they are beating us left and right. Strategy, creativity, cunning, all human notions that are being slaughtered. Slowly, but surely. It is “just” a matter of combining. I think it’s an “engineering problem” by now. Which is not to say that it will happen soon, just that if we set our minds to it it won’t be that big of a deal.

blueflow 2y ago
I'm patiently waiting for my sysadmin job to be automated away. AGI, its time to deliver! I'm waiting. Should have happened yesterday?
- TeMPOraL 2y ago
  The only AI remotely generic enough for that exists for like 2 years. Give it a few more, you might just get your wish.
  - kylebenzle 2y ago
    Maybe.
- Workaccount2 2y ago
  AGI by 2030 is not a reach statement at all anymore. The LLM's we have today weren't supposed to show up until 2030 at the earliest and 2050 more realistically. If you go back 10 years and read what people were writing about AI progress, you will find that they were _completely_ off the mark. It's prudent to assume a very liberal timeline for AI progress, based off whats been happening now.
  - blueflow 2y ago
    10 years ago we just had another AI hype. I want to see delivered promises & my job automated before i change my mind.
    - Workaccount2 2y ago
      Every promise has over delivered by a decade or more, so don't worry, you'll likely have your legs up 20 years faster than promised.
    - trashtester 2y ago
      We're still in the same AI hype as 10 years ago. You just stopped noticing for a while. It really hasn't stopped since AlexNet back in 2012. Personally, since I first started to learn about Neural Nets in the 90's, I've always predicted that they would bring AGI around the time they matched human brains in complexity and compute power. Back then, assuming Moore's law meant that would be between 2030-40. Now, there was always the prospect of a serious breakdown of Moore's Law, which might delay it, but since that didn't happen (compute power just moved from CPU's to GPU's), we're now approaching the final stretch. Human brain scale neural nets are already being planned, if not already being built in secret.
    - Delmololo 2y ago
      The fact that you can now ask an LLM in a chat like fashion is absolutely irrelevant to you? Not an achievement at all? Talking to an ai? Generating any image you like? Etc.?
  - short_sells_poo 2y ago
    I'm loving this absolutely breathless parroting of "AGI in the next 5 years" and yet: we don't even know what general intelligence is. We don't know how/why/where consciousness arises. It's not even a clearly defined concept. But here we have "Workaccount2" prophesizing the rise of general intelligence :D Please enlighten us sensei, what is actually General Intelligence, and how will you know it's here? I realize my reply is a bit flippant, but it's tiring to see how certain are people about something that nobody truly understands.
    - Workaccount2 2y ago
      Ironically I often post the exact same sentiment that you are sharing. But you are conflating two different things. AGI doesn't require consciousness. We likely will have no idea whether or not the first AGI computer is conscious or not. What we will know though, is that it is solving novel problems that humans struggle with, and from the outside the only way to discern it isn't another human is because it is way to smart to be one. I strongly suspect that the first computers which actually are conscious (AGI or not), whenever that happens, will have to fight a heavy uphill battle to prove it. And there will always be a group of people who will never believe an AI (is it even artificial at that point?) is conscious.
      - short_sells_poo 2y ago
        I didn't say that AGI requires consciousness, just that we don't understand what intelligence truly is, along with consciousness (which appears to be a form of intelligence). And I'm not particularly keen of the reasoning: "it is solving novel problems that humans struggle with", because a pocket calculator can solve problems that humans struggle with. A computer can play chess better than a human can, does it mean it's an AGI?
        Workaccount2 2y ago
        Wikipedia has an entire article for helping to understand what "AGI" refers to: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_general_intelligence https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_general_intelligenc...
- Delmololo 2y ago
  [flagged]
- trashtester 2y ago
  25 years ago, I did a back-of-the envelope calculation during a party and came up with roughly 2040. I didn't know that Kurzweil had already predicted 2029. Once I heard about it, I felt Kurzweil was over-optimistic, and stuck to 2040. Recently, though, it has started to seem that AGI before 2029 is more likely than 2040 or after.
- huygens6363 2y ago
  I don’t know what “sysadmin” is today anymore, but we don’t need AGI to get rid of that.

blueflow 2y ago

I'm patiently waiting for my sysadmin job to be automated away. AGI, its time to deliver! I'm waiting. Should have happened yesterday?

TeMPOraL 2y ago
The only AI remotely generic enough for that exists for like 2 years. Give it a few more, you might just get your wish.
- kylebenzle 2y ago
  Maybe.
Workaccount2 2y ago
AGI by 2030 is not a reach statement at all anymore. The LLM's we have today weren't supposed to show up until 2030 at the earliest and 2050 more realistically. If you go back 10 years and read what people were writing about AI progress, you will find that they were _completely_ off the mark. It's prudent to assume a very liberal timeline for AI progress, based off whats been happening now.
- blueflow 2y ago
  10 years ago we just had another AI hype. I want to see delivered promises & my job automated before i change my mind.
  - Workaccount2 2y ago
    Every promise has over delivered by a decade or more, so don't worry, you'll likely have your legs up 20 years faster than promised.
  - trashtester 2y ago
    We're still in the same AI hype as 10 years ago. You just stopped noticing for a while. It really hasn't stopped since AlexNet back in 2012. Personally, since I first started to learn about Neural Nets in the 90's, I've always predicted that they would bring AGI around the time they matched human brains in complexity and compute power. Back then, assuming Moore's law meant that would be between 2030-40. Now, there was always the prospect of a serious breakdown of Moore's Law, which might delay it, but since that didn't happen (compute power just moved from CPU's to GPU's), we're now approaching the final stretch. Human brain scale neural nets are already being planned, if not already being built in secret.
  - Delmololo 2y ago
    The fact that you can now ask an LLM in a chat like fashion is absolutely irrelevant to you? Not an achievement at all? Talking to an ai? Generating any image you like? Etc.?
- short_sells_poo 2y ago
  I'm loving this absolutely breathless parroting of "AGI in the next 5 years" and yet: we don't even know what general intelligence is. We don't know how/why/where consciousness arises. It's not even a clearly defined concept. But here we have "Workaccount2" prophesizing the rise of general intelligence :D Please enlighten us sensei, what is actually General Intelligence, and how will you know it's here? I realize my reply is a bit flippant, but it's tiring to see how certain are people about something that nobody truly understands.
  - Workaccount2 2y ago
    Ironically I often post the exact same sentiment that you are sharing. But you are conflating two different things. AGI doesn't require consciousness. We likely will have no idea whether or not the first AGI computer is conscious or not. What we will know though, is that it is solving novel problems that humans struggle with, and from the outside the only way to discern it isn't another human is because it is way to smart to be one. I strongly suspect that the first computers which actually are conscious (AGI or not), whenever that happens, will have to fight a heavy uphill battle to prove it. And there will always be a group of people who will never believe an AI (is it even artificial at that point?) is conscious.
    - short_sells_poo 2y ago
      I didn't say that AGI requires consciousness, just that we don't understand what intelligence truly is, along with consciousness (which appears to be a form of intelligence). And I'm not particularly keen of the reasoning: "it is solving novel problems that humans struggle with", because a pocket calculator can solve problems that humans struggle with. A computer can play chess better than a human can, does it mean it's an AGI?
      - Workaccount2 2y ago
        Wikipedia has an entire article for helping to understand what "AGI" refers to: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_general_intelligence https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_general_intelligenc...
Delmololo 2y ago
[flagged]
trashtester 2y ago
25 years ago, I did a back-of-the envelope calculation during a party and came up with roughly 2040. I didn't know that Kurzweil had already predicted 2029. Once I heard about it, I felt Kurzweil was over-optimistic, and stuck to 2040. Recently, though, it has started to seem that AGI before 2029 is more likely than 2040 or after.
huygens6363 2y ago
I don’t know what “sysadmin” is today anymore, but we don’t need AGI to get rid of that.