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I'm not at all sure what predictions you are referring to. I don't recall any universal collapse predictions that had scientific consensus aside from the one we

I'm not at all sure what predictions you are referring to. I don't recall any universal collapse predictions that had scientific consensus aside from the one we're talking about due to climate change. Which ones came and went without coming true?

ein0p 2y ago
Nah man, I'm not a search engine, but I can recommend one: Google or Brave will return a nearly complete list as their first result.
- bishbosh 2y ago
  I feel like you don't need to be a search engine to remember some buzz words. Seems to me you just can't justify your point.
  - ein0p 2y ago
    No, I’m just tired of the lazy “source?” style comments that are just thinly veiled attempts at sabotaging any further discussion. I have a hard time believing that someone has not yet seen the “global cooling” bullshit from the 80s, or “Florida will be underwater” bullshit from late 90s
    - kcplate 2y ago
      I remember all that. Also as a Floridian, I can confirm for HN that it was definitely hot today and I am not presently underwater. Dispelling both the impending ice age predictions from the early ‘80s and the Florida will be underwater predictions of the ‘90s.
    - deleted 2y ago
      [deleted]
    - justin66 2y ago
      > I have a hard time believing that someone has not yet seen the “global cooling” bullshit from the 80s I wouldn't blame anyone for having dismissed "global cooling" way back in the eighties as a dipshit FUD response to the uncertainties surrounding early global warming models by business interests, conservatives and some of the less credible scientific skeptics - and then putting it out of their mind.
      - ein0p 2y ago
        Are there perhaps still “uncertainties” around global warming, or will you call people “dipshits” 20 years later when we all not only survive and do OK, but add another couple billion to the planet’s population? That’s the point of my OP. I’ve seen this doomsday bullshit a few times now. They should tone down the rhetoric and look for solutions that do not send us back to preindustrial times, and do not involve “paying more taxes and eating bugs”
SpicyLemonZest 2y ago
It really depends on what you mean by "scientific consensus". Nuclear scientists have famously run a Doomsday Clock since 1947 predicting that we're going to nuke ourselves to death soon. Is that a consensus, or do there need to be formal academic studies which claim to prove universal collapse is coming? (How could you build such a study? Does the equivalent exist for climate change?) Equally importantly, not all predictions are of the "came and went" variety. The ozone layer had a collapse prediction, and that prediction was 100% true - but we responded to it, fixed it, and now the ozone layer is doing fine and expected to make a full recovery soon. It would have been a lot harder if advocates went around saying that the ozone layer is guaranteed to collapse unless we stop using refrigerators!
- bishbosh 2y ago
  I think both your examples speak to why we shouldn't be flippant about claims of climate collapse. The Doomsday Clock is not a valid representation of scientific consensus, and is completely incomparable to the current conversation. It largely reflects the political interpretation of one non-profit. In contrast the concerns over climate change are not posted in PR briefs, but in a plethora of scientific papers, in various fields, that repeatedly show we are in or past a worse case prediction. The ozone layer is more analogous, but the problem had the advantage of being a specific problem, with a soon found and cost efficient solution. In comparison, climate change is also 100% true, but rather than a particular aerosol that can be swapped out, it is literally the foundation of the entirety of human industrialization.
- yongjik 2y ago
  > It would have been a lot harder if advocates went around saying that the ozone layer is guaranteed to collapse unless we stop using refrigerators! Correction: It would have been a lot harder if multinational companies went around saying that refrigerants are made of chlorine and carbon, which are an essential part of life, nobody knows how the level of ozone fluctuated in past centuries, and it's all a liberal conspiracy to prevent you from eating as much frozen meat every day as you freedom-loving citizen rightfully deserves.

ein0p 2y ago

Nah man, I'm not a search engine, but I can recommend one: Google or Brave will return a nearly complete list as their first result.

bishbosh 2y ago
I feel like you don't need to be a search engine to remember some buzz words. Seems to me you just can't justify your point.
- ein0p 2y ago
  No, I’m just tired of the lazy “source?” style comments that are just thinly veiled attempts at sabotaging any further discussion. I have a hard time believing that someone has not yet seen the “global cooling” bullshit from the 80s, or “Florida will be underwater” bullshit from late 90s
  - kcplate 2y ago
    I remember all that. Also as a Floridian, I can confirm for HN that it was definitely hot today and I am not presently underwater. Dispelling both the impending ice age predictions from the early ‘80s and the Florida will be underwater predictions of the ‘90s.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
  - justin66 2y ago
    > I have a hard time believing that someone has not yet seen the “global cooling” bullshit from the 80s I wouldn't blame anyone for having dismissed "global cooling" way back in the eighties as a dipshit FUD response to the uncertainties surrounding early global warming models by business interests, conservatives and some of the less credible scientific skeptics - and then putting it out of their mind.
    - ein0p 2y ago
      Are there perhaps still “uncertainties” around global warming, or will you call people “dipshits” 20 years later when we all not only survive and do OK, but add another couple billion to the planet’s population? That’s the point of my OP. I’ve seen this doomsday bullshit a few times now. They should tone down the rhetoric and look for solutions that do not send us back to preindustrial times, and do not involve “paying more taxes and eating bugs”

SpicyLemonZest 2y ago

It really depends on what you mean by "scientific consensus". Nuclear scientists have famously run a Doomsday Clock since 1947 predicting that we're going to nuke ourselves to death soon. Is that a consensus, or do there need to be formal academic studies which claim to prove universal collapse is coming? (How could you build such a study? Does the equivalent exist for climate change?) Equally importantly, not all predictions are of the "came and went" variety. The ozone layer had a collapse prediction, and that prediction was 100% true - but we responded to it, fixed it, and now the ozone layer is doing fine and expected to make a full recovery soon. It would have been a lot harder if advocates went around saying that the ozone layer is guaranteed to collapse unless we stop using refrigerators!

bishbosh 2y ago
I think both your examples speak to why we shouldn't be flippant about claims of climate collapse. The Doomsday Clock is not a valid representation of scientific consensus, and is completely incomparable to the current conversation. It largely reflects the political interpretation of one non-profit. In contrast the concerns over climate change are not posted in PR briefs, but in a plethora of scientific papers, in various fields, that repeatedly show we are in or past a worse case prediction. The ozone layer is more analogous, but the problem had the advantage of being a specific problem, with a soon found and cost efficient solution. In comparison, climate change is also 100% true, but rather than a particular aerosol that can be swapped out, it is literally the foundation of the entirety of human industrialization.
yongjik 2y ago
> It would have been a lot harder if advocates went around saying that the ozone layer is guaranteed to collapse unless we stop using refrigerators! Correction: It would have been a lot harder if multinational companies went around saying that refrigerants are made of chlorine and carbon, which are an essential part of life, nobody knows how the level of ozone fluctuated in past centuries, and it's all a liberal conspiracy to prevent you from eating as much frozen meat every day as you freedom-loving citizen rightfully deserves.