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It's so weird how "efficient market hypothesis" is always stated in a way to imply that it's factual, when it's closer to an outright fallacy. I'd say that mark
by mindslight 3y ago
It's so weird how "efficient market hypothesis" is always stated in a way to imply that it's factual, when it's closer to an outright fallacy. I'd say that markets being fully efficient would at least imply P equaling NP. Essentially if markets were efficient, then markets themselves wouldn't be needed because central planning could actually work.
In reality there are local optima and other sticky structures due to the discrete nature of the world. In fact being able to find/make such things is one main teachings of business thinking with things like "build a moat" and whatnot. But this is all conveniently forgotten when whitewashing market behavior as intrinsically objective and responsive, rather than the fickle thing it is.
- imtringued 3y agoThe thing is, calculating a competitive (aka global maximum) general equilibrium is NP hard if the economy contains non divisible elements. This doesn't necessarily prevent us from being in an equilibrium, but it certainly makes it highly unlikely that we are in the best equilibrium.