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At fertility rates of 1.6, it takes just 25 generations for the global population to go from 8 billion to 900k. Just 10 generations for the global population to

At fertility rates of 1.6, it takes just 25 generations for the global population to go from 8 billion to 900k. Just 10 generations for the global population to drop below 1 billion. Pretty scary stuff.

rcxdude 2y ago
assuming fertility rates stay constant, which they rarely have. 250 years is a lot of time for things to change. (and of course there's no need for fertility rates to grow to as high as they have been historically, due to the massive drop in child mortality).
- missedthecue 2y ago
  I'm not convinced it's a self-correcting problem.
jandrese 2y ago
This is exactly my point. People assume that human behavior won't change if the population starts shrinking noticeably, especially if that shrinkage results in reduced housing pressures.
Dylan16807 2y ago
That's an extreme drop rate for the whole globe to have, and a very long time, so I'm not scared by it. The population only went over 2 billion in 1927. Dropping from current numbers is fine, and less competition over space would be nice.
- missedthecue 2y ago
  The issue isn't just the total number, it's the demography. The population is getting very old at a breakneck speed. I'm not sure how healthcare and pensions are supposed to be provided for old people when the tax base gets smaller and smaller every year. The end result is pretty terrible elder poverty. Not to mention the changing political dynamics of having a lot of old people outnumber younger people by 2 or 3 times in the voting booth. The gerontocracy is bad enough now. Imagine it 3x worse.
  - Dylan16807 2y ago
    > The population is getting very old at a breakneck speed. https://www.indexmundi.com/graphs/population-pyramids/united-states-population-pyramid-2020.jpg https://www.indexmundi.com/graphs/population-pyramids/united... Looks fine to me. What's your definition of "old" here? Are you specifically worried about Korea like you mentioned in another post? I'd worry about the implications of a global 1.6 birthrate if they were actually going to happen. I don't think that's very likely, though. I don't know if we're even going to get down to 2.
    - missedthecue 2y ago
      Since the mid 1980s, the median age in Italy has gone from 34 to 46 and the trend is accelerating. This is despite massive immigration. Expect this to happen everywhere in the next 40 years. India and China are already below replacement. All of LatAm, Europe, and South East Asia as well. Unless someone thinks of a democratic, scalable solution it's going to be a lot of pain for a lot of people for a long time.

rcxdude 2y ago

assuming fertility rates stay constant, which they rarely have. 250 years is a lot of time for things to change. (and of course there's no need for fertility rates to grow to as high as they have been historically, due to the massive drop in child mortality).

missedthecue 2y ago
I'm not convinced it's a self-correcting problem.

jandrese 2y ago

This is exactly my point. People assume that human behavior won't change if the population starts shrinking noticeably, especially if that shrinkage results in reduced housing pressures.

Dylan16807 2y ago

That's an extreme drop rate for the whole globe to have, and a very long time, so I'm not scared by it. The population only went over 2 billion in 1927. Dropping from current numbers is fine, and less competition over space would be nice.

missedthecue 2y ago
The issue isn't just the total number, it's the demography. The population is getting very old at a breakneck speed. I'm not sure how healthcare and pensions are supposed to be provided for old people when the tax base gets smaller and smaller every year. The end result is pretty terrible elder poverty. Not to mention the changing political dynamics of having a lot of old people outnumber younger people by 2 or 3 times in the voting booth. The gerontocracy is bad enough now. Imagine it 3x worse.
- Dylan16807 2y ago
  > The population is getting very old at a breakneck speed. https://www.indexmundi.com/graphs/population-pyramids/united-states-population-pyramid-2020.jpg https://www.indexmundi.com/graphs/population-pyramids/united... Looks fine to me. What's your definition of "old" here? Are you specifically worried about Korea like you mentioned in another post? I'd worry about the implications of a global 1.6 birthrate if they were actually going to happen. I don't think that's very likely, though. I don't know if we're even going to get down to 2.
  - missedthecue 2y ago
    Since the mid 1980s, the median age in Italy has gone from 34 to 46 and the trend is accelerating. This is despite massive immigration. Expect this to happen everywhere in the next 40 years. India and China are already below replacement. All of LatAm, Europe, and South East Asia as well. Unless someone thinks of a democratic, scalable solution it's going to be a lot of pain for a lot of people for a long time.