57 ms·

When Is a Counter-Strike Player Good?

89 points by kqr 2y ago

incomingpain 2y ago
Counterstrike is identical to chess, there's tiers of players. I never made it to CAL-I but I was the tier below. When playing against CAL-I tier people, we'd get stomped on. Flipside, if I went to a pub, it's quite likely that I would stomp on everyone else. I still can do this in TF2 and tryharding. You can't go by KD ratio. Your opponents matter.
- rowanG077 2y ago
  This. I used to play pretty high level cs more then a decade ago. I can still join deathmatch games once every blue moon and usually come out on top.
- _the_inflator 2y ago
  Ladder or ranking is the best overall performance indicator (given ideal conditions, no cheating). It is a system of averages. I was a top 80 player in Age of Empires: AoK and easily beat the crap out of everything from below the top 100. Above me, I could compete with most players on some maps on some days, top 50 would beat me in a best of five, but top 20 usually eat me under competitive conditions. Most of them were already pro gamers back then and trained hard to maintain their ranking. It piles up. Micro management especially. Being constantly a couple of milliseconds faster in organizing stuff and decision making is like a formula 1 driver who is 0,5 faster per lap. Worlds apart with 60 rounds to take.
- StableAlkyne 2y ago
  The other difference is that chess is a 1v1 game: the only person you can blame if you lose is yourself. Counterstrike is a team game, where (if the matchmaker was competetently designed) on average you shouldn't be able to carry your team. I think this contributes to a lot of toxicity, because it's very easy to find a cause for the loss that isn't your own skill. Imagine a team match of chess where everyone controls a couple pieces. At low brackets, you could know "tech" like en passant or underpromotion. You might have vague ideas like "control the center" and might know a few lines of theory. You might be screaming at the screen when a teammate castles into mate-in-3 and blame them for your loss - even though you were the one who moved a pawn to h3 on turn 1.
  - cinntaile 2y ago
    Someone should make that. A 2v2 chess variant.
    - jdietrich 2y ago
      It's reasonably popular: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bughouse_chess https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bughouse_chess
    - School-Cotton 2y ago
      Those exist. By far the most popular is called bughouse: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bughouse_chess https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bughouse_chess
Grimeton 2y ago
[flagged]
- tiagod 2y ago
  What do you mean with that? Aren't the differences with the paid items just aesthetic?
  - Grimeton 2y ago
    "Skill can be bought" means that people buy cheats left and right and that the game is infested with cheats to a point where it's unplayable. Even pro players complain about the state it's in and a lot of streamers left the game until this is fixed. Pretty similar to the situation in Tarkov. You want a source? A simple search for cs2 cheating on Youtube should suffice.
    - tiagod 2y ago
      Understood. I was just interested in why that's the case, as I know almost nothing about the game. No need for that last paragraph...
- s0ss 2y ago
  This is true of any game though. Cheating definitely exists, overwhelming majority of players are not cheating though. As an aside… Beating a cheater fair and square is extremely satisfying.
  - Grimeton 2y ago
    The cheating is so bad that pros complain and streamers leave the game until it's fixed. Just search for it on youtube and watch the videos.
Rodeoclash 2y ago
After the mention of the Leetify website in the article, I'm going to shamelessly spruik my free open source eSports video analysis tool https://www.vodon.gg/ https://www.vodon.gg/ It's not strictly for counterstrike but works with any captured video from games.
hhh 2y ago
when their mmr is above 80% of all other players
asdfman123 2y ago
I tried to get good at fpses back in the day but never did. I was however making decent progress at learning an instrument at the time (the French horn, if you must know) and thought there should be some sort of tool to learn the fundamentals of first-person video game shooting using time honored music practice techniques. The key to getting really killer music technique is to go as smoothly and calmly as possible, over and over again, even if that means going at a fraction of the target speed. I would have liked to see an fps trainer that lets you practice shots at anywhere from 1/5th to 1x game speed, so you could master it at very slow speeds and gradually up the "tempo". (There are some very good trainer programs now in AD 2024, but none that I know of that let you manipulate speed like that.)
- candiddevmike 2y ago
  Slow is smooth and smooth is fast
- ghosty141 2y ago
  I‘d say I‘m very proficient with FPS games. I also got to Global Elite in CS:GO. My take is that you mainly need two things, map awareness and aim. The first can only be acquired by playing A LOT. The latter too but the time it takes by playing gamemodes line Free For All Deathmatch where you get to practice the shooting aspect very frequently. If taken seriously I‘m confident a player can get proficient within 500-800 hours of playtime. That sounds like a lot but with daily practice/playing ofr 1-2 hours its not that big of a deal.
  - rowanG077 2y ago
    And talent. CS is one of the first times in my life I saw people try very hard at getting better. But it just didn't work. Like some people put in a fourth of their effort and they would still run circles around them.
    - bloqs 2y ago
      it's actually trait openness/ cognitive flexibility: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/366388355_Cognitive_Flexibility_and_Decision_Making_Predicts_Expertise_in_the_MOBA_Esport_League_of_Legends#:~:text=Results%20showed%20that%20cognitive%20flexibility,per%20minute%E2%80%9D%20(%20p%20%3D%20 https://www.researchgate.net/publication/366388355_Cognitive....
abcde777666 2y ago
The standards have gone up a lot over time. Your average player now knows who the tops teams are and watches them play. Vastly different from the early 2000s when just knowing to aim at heads set you apart. Even to be a top 10% player these days you need to either be a veteran or to practice for long hours. Must be hell for anyone new who wants to try the game!
- sage76 2y ago
  This is true. Even at mid levels of faceit, people throw full executes and run around clicking heads easily.
- vehemenz 2y ago
  On the other hand, there are a lot more competitive video games than there used to be, so the best competitive gamers are spread all around instead of just in Counter-Strike.
- whoknowsidont 2y ago
  Yeah, as someone who grew up in ye old days of even pre-Steam CS, the skill level the "average" player has now is incredible. Hoping into a casual match of Counter-Strike you'd think you accidentally ended up in someone's scrim match. I don't have the time or passion these days to practice, but even if I did, I'd imagine it'd still be a very difficult environment to just be somewhat decent.
lwansbrough 2y ago
I'd like to think I have some domain knowledge here[0]. So here's my two cents: there is no performance-based stat that will tell you if you're good. Rank is the only thing that matters. There are however a lot stats that can tell you if you're good amongst your peers in your current rank. The idea is that once your rank converges with your skill, your stats will trend towards the median. But the good news is, most players are interested in exactly that. They want to know how they're performing compared to players of a similar rank. This was the basis for our[1] Tracker Score performance rating, which grades player performance relative to players at their level (so both an Iron and a Radiant player can have similar ratings.) [0] https://tracker.gg https://tracker.gg [1] https://tracker.gg/articles/tracker-score-our-new-performance-rating https://tracker.gg/articles/tracker-score-our-new-performanc...
- jrajav 2y ago
  Is this score meant to be like a derivative of one's rank? How fast one's expected to climb from their current rank? Or, more like a game-agnostic aggregate ranking?
  - chmod775 2y ago
    Really only winning matters at your current rank, other metrics can be deceiving. For instance according to the tool my league account is D-tier in most metrics and gets an overall ~400/1000, except that it has a near 60% winrate over 200 games on my main role while playing against the top-5% of players in my region. As a toplaner I generally want to be on the opposite side of the map from the current objective and I'm not going to get to participate in many kills either - so my objective participation and kill participation are both D-tier. If I made improving those metrics my goal I'd be playing incorrectly and I'd likely lose more games. In a shooter a high KDA in [current rank] is going to correlate better with winrate, since killing your opponent is the main avenue to victory, however you could still imagine a hypothetical player who gets a lot of kills but makes the game so hard for the rest of their team, they lose anyways. At the end of the day, only your current winrate is a reliable metric for how fast you're going to climb from your current rank.
tflol 2y ago
according to all the opponents and team mates I had, everyone pretty good but me :)
szundi 2y ago
Back then I got the intellimouse explorer from microsoft, a nice precise mouse. Shot everyone in the head and kicked from all servers. Even Valve sent me a message that one more ban from a server and my account is frozen. End of CS for me that day. Thanks God
- whoknowsidont 2y ago
  You got kicked by many, many different players over a tight enough timeline and you think it's simply because you were aiming too good?
crsv 2y ago
As someone who played professional CS in the 1.6-Source era this write up gave me a hearty chuckle. It must be what it feels like when a pro footballer reads a really intense parents write up on u12 tactics.
- sdwr 2y ago
  You know it's gonna be bad when the analysis starts with explaining what a flashbang is (then doesn't include it in the stats)
- jasonzemos 2y ago
  I'll second this. The upper echelon of 5v5 is an entirely different game. It's similar to what was alluded in the post[1] about chess in another thread. The level of complexity is so high and the depth of refinement is so technical that generic statistics just don't quantify the conclusions we draw from simply watching someone's FPV. One would need to start by analyzing data at the most basic level: did the player move between two points as efficiently as possible without penalty or mistakes? How far away was their crosshair from where it needed to be at the point of contact for each engagement? How often did they misjudge where everyone else was? How accurate are they at timing enemy movement to another location without seeing them? What is their level of consistency at making certain well-known plays at certain locations? These are just the basics. The game-world data is available though for analysis at this level of detail. [1]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40330923 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40330923
tuetuopay 2y ago
This is sad that the article goes on to explaining the crucial importance of smokes, flashbangs, etc while not focusing on them for analyzing games. In my own experience (nowhere near a great player), people that were the most valuable to a team where those knowing when not to shoot: peek to take info, throw some stuff to mess with the enemy, etc. With some friends we used another CS match analysis tool, scope.gg, and it took many of those things in action. It knew how to estimate your grenade/smoke/flash/molotov throws on how effective they were, your risk-taking (e.g. peek at a common place to get insta-headshotted), even your footsteps being heard by the opponent in stealth parts. Really, this tool was much more accurate than anything based on the metrics presented here. And it showed, because it consistently nominated one friend as the best one, which matched our experience, and myself as the worst one of the team, which also matched our experience :D Cool article nonetheless, and really show the issue with current counterstrike (and why I don't play it much anymore): the skill level is so high that you basically need tools to tell you your mistakes. Otherwise you're in for a truckload of frustration as a new player.
- noelwelsh 2y ago
  > the skill level is so high that you basically need tools to tell you your mistakes. Otherwise you're in for a truckload of frustration as a new player. The onboarding experience is also non-existent. I've played a few hours of CS and stopped because I couldn't figure out what was going on and I wasn't invested enough to find out. When I say I couldn't figure out what was going on I don't mean I couldn't understand the angles I should take or other tactical things like that, but, once I went beyond quick play where I just shoot everyone, what team I was on and what I was actually trying to do.
  - andrewmcwatters 2y ago
    Maybe I've got this all wrong, but back when I was an active player, mostly in the CS:S days, you didn't need onboarding. You could just play a game and not think about strategizing. Really good players would do this, but for most, it was some skill shooter that was still mostly run and gun.
thom 2y ago
Surprised at the small size of the dataset here. Surely it’s possible to record thousands if not millions of results… has someone been able to do this? Seems like the simplest thing to do here would just be to develop some sort of plus/minus system and not try to overthink things. I work in sports analytics, and mostly in low scoring sports so we don’t get to do that very often.
- kqr 2y ago
  > Surprised at the small size of the dataset here. Author here. For answering the research question that spawned the article (engage or stay away from a do-or-die encounter), the data set actually appears to be "too large" – see the significance values of the parameters. I got carried away when copy-pasting match result tables, but the effect is so clear that a much smaller data set would have sufficed for showing it. I think the thing you're asking for is what the Leetify rating tries to encode, but people in this discussion have suggested alternative rating systems which I have yet to look into.
haunter 2y ago
I’d rather read about why are russians bad. Or more like why are they are playing the way it is. When you need to eco > they rush B. When you need to save the round > they go back 1v3. But that not just in CS, they do the same in Dota too. They just play and see these games differently.
- jdietrich 2y ago
  The argument I've heard is that Russian players have relatively high ping to EU servers, so are more prone to becoming frustrated and playing in a silly but fun way. I'm not entirely sure I buy that, because the 2022 invasion of Ukraine was basically "Rush Kyiv, don't stop blyat"; an overwhelming advantage in manpower and equipment was squandered due to poor planning. Russia seems to have a very long martial tradition of just charging ahead and trying to win through sheer force of will.
  - sage76 2y ago
    The ping theory is very interesting. Some people claim Turkish players are also easily frustrated, and they also have high ping to European servers.
- mlvljr 2y ago
  [dead]
user_7832 2y ago
Somewhat related and tangential to the thread, does anyone have an idea why CS feels so different compared to other FPS games? Despite playing the game since my school days, I’m still about as good/bad as ever. Encountering an enemy gives roughly a 50% chance of me dying. However both in single player fps games (COD/far cry/GTA etc) as well as other multiplayer games (only COD to be honest) the game feels much more forgiving. It’s a weird thing from a game design perspective for me. One possible reason could be health regeneration but that ought to affect enemies as strongly too.
- noelwelsh 2y ago
  COD is designed to have a low skill ceiling, so casual players can feel like champions. For example, it has crazy high aim assist. See https://www.reddit.com/r/ModernWarfareII/comments/ykdqhs/aim_assist_isnt_overpowered/ https://www.reddit.com/r/ModernWarfareII/comments/ykdqhs/aim... So you don't need much actual skill at aiming. Plus weapons generally have huge magazines relative to the number of shots needed to kill people, so you can spam fire and will usually get a kill. CS is designed to basically be the opposite.
  - eternityforest 2y ago
    Which is off because CS Go runs on anything. It's one of the very few FPSes I've ever played since so many seem to require a graphics card. But it's not exactly all that enjoyable unless you have great coordination and reaction time.
- Buttons840 2y ago
  More casual shooters might have auto-aim, especially on console. CS is very fast and twitchy compared to more mainstream shooters. Also, CS has recoil that moves you cursor / aim point. Other games might only have bullet spread. It's an interesting decision whether or not recoil should extend to UI elements like cursor position, in CS it does. One result of this is skilled players can move their cursor just right and counteract the recoil, potential putting every bullet on target like a laser beam, but I don't think any human can fully realize that potential.
- 2y ago
wordofx 2y ago
CS is one of the few games I still enjoy because it isn’t overrun by cheaters. After 24 years I can still jump in a game and come out on top. But warzone or fortnite are overrun by cheats who shoot you out of the sky seconds after the game starts.
- rcurry 2y ago
  Wat? CS is crawling with cheaters. Totally sucks. I can’t wait for the day when we have enough bandwidth that the entire game can be rendered on the server side and you just get a video feed. That would end most of this crap.
  - wordofx 2y ago
    If it’s crawling with cheaters the cheats must suck now-a-days. Used to be run hacks, bunny hopping, wall hacks, auto shoot. But if I can join a competitive game in 2024 and still top the list those hacks must suck.
  - codexon 2y ago
    That will not help. There are already aimbots that work only off video feeds. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bOQzWO39KYU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bOQzWO39KYU
  - abcde777666 2y ago
    Another reason this unfortunately wouldn't be viable is latency - a video feed has no client side prediction.
matheusmoreira 2y ago
> The intercept is -4. > This means that a player, just by existing, is providing negative value to their team. > A player has to actively do something good to reach break-even. > Thus, if we think we won’t contribute positively to the match (and our goal is to improve our team’s chances of winning), we should not play. > My Leetify rating in recent games have been around -4, which must mean my success rate in firefights has been about 40 %. > That seems reasonable, but also highlights how devilish this game can be. > 40 % isn’t a bad success rate. It can even feel fairly successful thanks to natural variance around that. > But it most definitely means I’ve been contributing negatively – and I know I have. That's brutal... Implies that when you have bad teammates you need to be even better to compensate for their suckiness. I suppose that explains why a lot of people get very angry (to say the least) during matches.
vehemenz 2y ago
> Counter-Strike is played by two teams with five players in each. As someone who played CS from the first beta, this is a convention that started with certain competitive leagues but was never a hard and fast rule. Most maps don't play very well 5v5, but that format took off because it was harder to organize more people at once on IRC. This could have been fixed with matchmaking, but I suppose the toothpaste was already out of the tube.
bombcar 2y ago
Reminds me of https://danluu.com/p95-skill/ https://danluu.com/p95-skill/
hi-v-rocknroll 2y ago
- Low ping - AWP - Young reflexes - Fearlessness - Not following the crowds, but anticipating where the crowds will be - Skywalking https://youtu.be/WCoxpSIc-js https://youtu.be/WCoxpSIc-js ;)
nubinetwork 2y ago
When they play better than fpsdoug.
rldjbpin 2y ago
fun thought exercise, but the fact that a relatively new player is exposed to services such as leetify and learning that way nowadays blows my mind. trying to quantify performance this way is stuck somewhere between extremely abstract rating like elo-rating (that cs internal rating is originally based on) and the moneyball realm in modern sports. this is all well and good inside a controlled environment of professional sports, but should not be taken too seriously outside of that scene. i think the only thing one should care about is a bayesian measure of how you impact the odds of winning the round/game in the server/lobby. regardless, i would definitely love to work for a team that is passionated about cs outside of daily tasks!

89 points by kqr 2y ago

Counterstrike is identical to chess, there's tiers of players. I never made it to CAL-I but I was the tier below. When playing against CAL-I tier people, we'd get stomped on. Flipside, if I went to a pub, it's quite likely that I would stomp on everyone else. I still can do this in TF2 and tryharding. You can't go by KD ratio. Your opponents matter.

rowanG077 2y ago
This. I used to play pretty high level cs more then a decade ago. I can still join deathmatch games once every blue moon and usually come out on top.
_the_inflator 2y ago
Ladder or ranking is the best overall performance indicator (given ideal conditions, no cheating). It is a system of averages. I was a top 80 player in Age of Empires: AoK and easily beat the crap out of everything from below the top 100. Above me, I could compete with most players on some maps on some days, top 50 would beat me in a best of five, but top 20 usually eat me under competitive conditions. Most of them were already pro gamers back then and trained hard to maintain their ranking. It piles up. Micro management especially. Being constantly a couple of milliseconds faster in organizing stuff and decision making is like a formula 1 driver who is 0,5 faster per lap. Worlds apart with 60 rounds to take.
StableAlkyne 2y ago
The other difference is that chess is a 1v1 game: the only person you can blame if you lose is yourself. Counterstrike is a team game, where (if the matchmaker was competetently designed) on average you shouldn't be able to carry your team. I think this contributes to a lot of toxicity, because it's very easy to find a cause for the loss that isn't your own skill. Imagine a team match of chess where everyone controls a couple pieces. At low brackets, you could know "tech" like en passant or underpromotion. You might have vague ideas like "control the center" and might know a few lines of theory. You might be screaming at the screen when a teammate castles into mate-in-3 and blame them for your loss - even though you were the one who moved a pawn to h3 on turn 1.
- cinntaile 2y ago
  Someone should make that. A 2v2 chess variant.
  - jdietrich 2y ago
    It's reasonably popular: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bughouse_chess https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bughouse_chess
  - School-Cotton 2y ago
    Those exist. By far the most popular is called bughouse: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bughouse_chess https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bughouse_chess

Grimeton 2y ago

[flagged]

tiagod 2y ago
What do you mean with that? Aren't the differences with the paid items just aesthetic?
- Grimeton 2y ago
  "Skill can be bought" means that people buy cheats left and right and that the game is infested with cheats to a point where it's unplayable. Even pro players complain about the state it's in and a lot of streamers left the game until this is fixed. Pretty similar to the situation in Tarkov. You want a source? A simple search for cs2 cheating on Youtube should suffice.
  - tiagod 2y ago
    Understood. I was just interested in why that's the case, as I know almost nothing about the game. No need for that last paragraph...
s0ss 2y ago
This is true of any game though. Cheating definitely exists, overwhelming majority of players are not cheating though. As an aside… Beating a cheater fair and square is extremely satisfying.
- Grimeton 2y ago
  The cheating is so bad that pros complain and streamers leave the game until it's fixed. Just search for it on youtube and watch the videos.

Rodeoclash 2y ago

After the mention of the Leetify website in the article, I'm going to shamelessly spruik my free open source eSports video analysis tool https://www.vodon.gg/ https://www.vodon.gg/ It's not strictly for counterstrike but works with any captured video from games.

hhh 2y ago

when their mmr is above 80% of all other players

asdfman123 2y ago

I tried to get good at fpses back in the day but never did. I was however making decent progress at learning an instrument at the time (the French horn, if you must know) and thought there should be some sort of tool to learn the fundamentals of first-person video game shooting using time honored music practice techniques. The key to getting really killer music technique is to go as smoothly and calmly as possible, over and over again, even if that means going at a fraction of the target speed. I would have liked to see an fps trainer that lets you practice shots at anywhere from 1/5th to 1x game speed, so you could master it at very slow speeds and gradually up the "tempo". (There are some very good trainer programs now in AD 2024, but none that I know of that let you manipulate speed like that.)

candiddevmike 2y ago
Slow is smooth and smooth is fast
ghosty141 2y ago
I‘d say I‘m very proficient with FPS games. I also got to Global Elite in CS:GO. My take is that you mainly need two things, map awareness and aim. The first can only be acquired by playing A LOT. The latter too but the time it takes by playing gamemodes line Free For All Deathmatch where you get to practice the shooting aspect very frequently. If taken seriously I‘m confident a player can get proficient within 500-800 hours of playtime. That sounds like a lot but with daily practice/playing ofr 1-2 hours its not that big of a deal.
- rowanG077 2y ago
  And talent. CS is one of the first times in my life I saw people try very hard at getting better. But it just didn't work. Like some people put in a fourth of their effort and they would still run circles around them.
  - bloqs 2y ago
    it's actually trait openness/ cognitive flexibility: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/366388355_Cognitive_Flexibility_and_Decision_Making_Predicts_Expertise_in_the_MOBA_Esport_League_of_Legends#:~:text=Results%20showed%20that%20cognitive%20flexibility,per%20minute%E2%80%9D%20(%20p%20%3D%20 https://www.researchgate.net/publication/366388355_Cognitive....

abcde777666 2y ago

The standards have gone up a lot over time. Your average player now knows who the tops teams are and watches them play. Vastly different from the early 2000s when just knowing to aim at heads set you apart. Even to be a top 10% player these days you need to either be a veteran or to practice for long hours. Must be hell for anyone new who wants to try the game!

sage76 2y ago
This is true. Even at mid levels of faceit, people throw full executes and run around clicking heads easily.
vehemenz 2y ago
On the other hand, there are a lot more competitive video games than there used to be, so the best competitive gamers are spread all around instead of just in Counter-Strike.
whoknowsidont 2y ago
Yeah, as someone who grew up in ye old days of even pre-Steam CS, the skill level the "average" player has now is incredible. Hoping into a casual match of Counter-Strike you'd think you accidentally ended up in someone's scrim match. I don't have the time or passion these days to practice, but even if I did, I'd imagine it'd still be a very difficult environment to just be somewhat decent.

lwansbrough 2y ago

I'd like to think I have some domain knowledge here[0]. So here's my two cents: there is no performance-based stat that will tell you if you're good. Rank is the only thing that matters. There are however a lot stats that can tell you if you're good amongst your peers in your current rank. The idea is that once your rank converges with your skill, your stats will trend towards the median. But the good news is, most players are interested in exactly that. They want to know how they're performing compared to players of a similar rank. This was the basis for our[1] Tracker Score performance rating, which grades player performance relative to players at their level (so both an Iron and a Radiant player can have similar ratings.) [0] https://tracker.gg https://tracker.gg [1] https://tracker.gg/articles/tracker-score-our-new-performance-rating https://tracker.gg/articles/tracker-score-our-new-performanc...

jrajav 2y ago
Is this score meant to be like a derivative of one's rank? How fast one's expected to climb from their current rank? Or, more like a game-agnostic aggregate ranking?
- chmod775 2y ago
  Really only winning matters at your current rank, other metrics can be deceiving. For instance according to the tool my league account is D-tier in most metrics and gets an overall ~400/1000, except that it has a near 60% winrate over 200 games on my main role while playing against the top-5% of players in my region. As a toplaner I generally want to be on the opposite side of the map from the current objective and I'm not going to get to participate in many kills either - so my objective participation and kill participation are both D-tier. If I made improving those metrics my goal I'd be playing incorrectly and I'd likely lose more games. In a shooter a high KDA in [current rank] is going to correlate better with winrate, since killing your opponent is the main avenue to victory, however you could still imagine a hypothetical player who gets a lot of kills but makes the game so hard for the rest of their team, they lose anyways. At the end of the day, only your current winrate is a reliable metric for how fast you're going to climb from your current rank.

tflol 2y ago

according to all the opponents and team mates I had, everyone pretty good but me :)

szundi 2y ago

Back then I got the intellimouse explorer from microsoft, a nice precise mouse. Shot everyone in the head and kicked from all servers. Even Valve sent me a message that one more ban from a server and my account is frozen. End of CS for me that day. Thanks God

whoknowsidont 2y ago
You got kicked by many, many different players over a tight enough timeline and you think it's simply because you were aiming too good?

crsv 2y ago

As someone who played professional CS in the 1.6-Source era this write up gave me a hearty chuckle. It must be what it feels like when a pro footballer reads a really intense parents write up on u12 tactics.

sdwr 2y ago
You know it's gonna be bad when the analysis starts with explaining what a flashbang is (then doesn't include it in the stats)
jasonzemos 2y ago
I'll second this. The upper echelon of 5v5 is an entirely different game. It's similar to what was alluded in the post[1] about chess in another thread. The level of complexity is so high and the depth of refinement is so technical that generic statistics just don't quantify the conclusions we draw from simply watching someone's FPV. One would need to start by analyzing data at the most basic level: did the player move between two points as efficiently as possible without penalty or mistakes? How far away was their crosshair from where it needed to be at the point of contact for each engagement? How often did they misjudge where everyone else was? How accurate are they at timing enemy movement to another location without seeing them? What is their level of consistency at making certain well-known plays at certain locations? These are just the basics. The game-world data is available though for analysis at this level of detail. [1]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40330923 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40330923

tuetuopay 2y ago

This is sad that the article goes on to explaining the crucial importance of smokes, flashbangs, etc while not focusing on them for analyzing games. In my own experience (nowhere near a great player), people that were the most valuable to a team where those knowing when not to shoot: peek to take info, throw some stuff to mess with the enemy, etc. With some friends we used another CS match analysis tool, scope.gg, and it took many of those things in action. It knew how to estimate your grenade/smoke/flash/molotov throws on how effective they were, your risk-taking (e.g. peek at a common place to get insta-headshotted), even your footsteps being heard by the opponent in stealth parts. Really, this tool was much more accurate than anything based on the metrics presented here. And it showed, because it consistently nominated one friend as the best one, which matched our experience, and myself as the worst one of the team, which also matched our experience :D Cool article nonetheless, and really show the issue with current counterstrike (and why I don't play it much anymore): the skill level is so high that you basically need tools to tell you your mistakes. Otherwise you're in for a truckload of frustration as a new player.

noelwelsh 2y ago
> the skill level is so high that you basically need tools to tell you your mistakes. Otherwise you're in for a truckload of frustration as a new player. The onboarding experience is also non-existent. I've played a few hours of CS and stopped because I couldn't figure out what was going on and I wasn't invested enough to find out. When I say I couldn't figure out what was going on I don't mean I couldn't understand the angles I should take or other tactical things like that, but, once I went beyond quick play where I just shoot everyone, what team I was on and what I was actually trying to do.
- andrewmcwatters 2y ago
  Maybe I've got this all wrong, but back when I was an active player, mostly in the CS:S days, you didn't need onboarding. You could just play a game and not think about strategizing. Really good players would do this, but for most, it was some skill shooter that was still mostly run and gun.

thom 2y ago

Surprised at the small size of the dataset here. Surely it’s possible to record thousands if not millions of results… has someone been able to do this? Seems like the simplest thing to do here would just be to develop some sort of plus/minus system and not try to overthink things. I work in sports analytics, and mostly in low scoring sports so we don’t get to do that very often.

kqr 2y ago
> Surprised at the small size of the dataset here. Author here. For answering the research question that spawned the article (engage or stay away from a do-or-die encounter), the data set actually appears to be "too large" – see the significance values of the parameters. I got carried away when copy-pasting match result tables, but the effect is so clear that a much smaller data set would have sufficed for showing it. I think the thing you're asking for is what the Leetify rating tries to encode, but people in this discussion have suggested alternative rating systems which I have yet to look into.

haunter 2y ago

I’d rather read about why are russians bad. Or more like why are they are playing the way it is. When you need to eco > they rush B. When you need to save the round > they go back 1v3. But that not just in CS, they do the same in Dota too. They just play and see these games differently.

jdietrich 2y ago
The argument I've heard is that Russian players have relatively high ping to EU servers, so are more prone to becoming frustrated and playing in a silly but fun way. I'm not entirely sure I buy that, because the 2022 invasion of Ukraine was basically "Rush Kyiv, don't stop blyat"; an overwhelming advantage in manpower and equipment was squandered due to poor planning. Russia seems to have a very long martial tradition of just charging ahead and trying to win through sheer force of will.
- sage76 2y ago
  The ping theory is very interesting. Some people claim Turkish players are also easily frustrated, and they also have high ping to European servers.
mlvljr 2y ago
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user_7832 2y ago

Somewhat related and tangential to the thread, does anyone have an idea why CS feels so different compared to other FPS games? Despite playing the game since my school days, I’m still about as good/bad as ever. Encountering an enemy gives roughly a 50% chance of me dying. However both in single player fps games (COD/far cry/GTA etc) as well as other multiplayer games (only COD to be honest) the game feels much more forgiving. It’s a weird thing from a game design perspective for me. One possible reason could be health regeneration but that ought to affect enemies as strongly too.

noelwelsh 2y ago
COD is designed to have a low skill ceiling, so casual players can feel like champions. For example, it has crazy high aim assist. See https://www.reddit.com/r/ModernWarfareII/comments/ykdqhs/aim_assist_isnt_overpowered/ https://www.reddit.com/r/ModernWarfareII/comments/ykdqhs/aim... So you don't need much actual skill at aiming. Plus weapons generally have huge magazines relative to the number of shots needed to kill people, so you can spam fire and will usually get a kill. CS is designed to basically be the opposite.
- eternityforest 2y ago
  Which is off because CS Go runs on anything. It's one of the very few FPSes I've ever played since so many seem to require a graphics card. But it's not exactly all that enjoyable unless you have great coordination and reaction time.
Buttons840 2y ago
More casual shooters might have auto-aim, especially on console. CS is very fast and twitchy compared to more mainstream shooters. Also, CS has recoil that moves you cursor / aim point. Other games might only have bullet spread. It's an interesting decision whether or not recoil should extend to UI elements like cursor position, in CS it does. One result of this is skilled players can move their cursor just right and counteract the recoil, potential putting every bullet on target like a laser beam, but I don't think any human can fully realize that potential.
2y ago

wordofx 2y ago

CS is one of the few games I still enjoy because it isn’t overrun by cheaters. After 24 years I can still jump in a game and come out on top. But warzone or fortnite are overrun by cheats who shoot you out of the sky seconds after the game starts.

rcurry 2y ago
Wat? CS is crawling with cheaters. Totally sucks. I can’t wait for the day when we have enough bandwidth that the entire game can be rendered on the server side and you just get a video feed. That would end most of this crap.
- wordofx 2y ago
  If it’s crawling with cheaters the cheats must suck now-a-days. Used to be run hacks, bunny hopping, wall hacks, auto shoot. But if I can join a competitive game in 2024 and still top the list those hacks must suck.
- codexon 2y ago
  That will not help. There are already aimbots that work only off video feeds. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bOQzWO39KYU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bOQzWO39KYU
- abcde777666 2y ago
  Another reason this unfortunately wouldn't be viable is latency - a video feed has no client side prediction.

matheusmoreira 2y ago

> The intercept is -4. > This means that a player, just by existing, is providing negative value to their team. > A player has to actively do something good to reach break-even. > Thus, if we think we won’t contribute positively to the match (and our goal is to improve our team’s chances of winning), we should not play. > My Leetify rating in recent games have been around -4, which must mean my success rate in firefights has been about 40 %. > That seems reasonable, but also highlights how devilish this game can be. > 40 % isn’t a bad success rate. It can even feel fairly successful thanks to natural variance around that. > But it most definitely means I’ve been contributing negatively – and I know I have. That's brutal... Implies that when you have bad teammates you need to be even better to compensate for their suckiness. I suppose that explains why a lot of people get very angry (to say the least) during matches.

vehemenz 2y ago

> Counter-Strike is played by two teams with five players in each. As someone who played CS from the first beta, this is a convention that started with certain competitive leagues but was never a hard and fast rule. Most maps don't play very well 5v5, but that format took off because it was harder to organize more people at once on IRC. This could have been fixed with matchmaking, but I suppose the toothpaste was already out of the tube.

bombcar 2y ago

Reminds me of https://danluu.com/p95-skill/ https://danluu.com/p95-skill/

hi-v-rocknroll 2y ago

- Low ping - AWP - Young reflexes - Fearlessness - Not following the crowds, but anticipating where the crowds will be - Skywalking https://youtu.be/WCoxpSIc-js https://youtu.be/WCoxpSIc-js ;)

nubinetwork 2y ago

When they play better than fpsdoug.

rldjbpin 2y ago

fun thought exercise, but the fact that a relatively new player is exposed to services such as leetify and learning that way nowadays blows my mind. trying to quantify performance this way is stuck somewhere between extremely abstract rating like elo-rating (that cs internal rating is originally based on) and the moneyball realm in modern sports. this is all well and good inside a controlled environment of professional sports, but should not be taken too seriously outside of that scene. i think the only thing one should care about is a bayesian measure of how you impact the odds of winning the round/game in the server/lobby. regardless, i would definitely love to work for a team that is passionated about cs outside of daily tasks!