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Time series data are inherently context sensitive, unlike natural languages which follow predictable grammar patterns. The patterns in time series data vary bas
by wuj 2y ago
Time series data are inherently context sensitive, unlike natural languages which follow predictable grammar patterns. The patterns in time series data vary based on context. For example, flight data often show seasonal trends, while electric signals depend on the type of sensor used. There's also data that appear random, like stock data, though firms like Rentech manage to consistently find unlerlying alphas. Training a multivariate time series data would be challenging, but I don't see why not for specific applications.
- Xcelerate 2y agoIs Rentech the only group that genuinely manages to predict stock price? Seems like the very observation that it’s still possible would be enough motivation for other groups to catch up over such a long period. Also, the first realistic approximation of Solomonoff induction we achieve is going to be interesting because it will destroy the stock market.
- icapybara 2y agoAgreed, if stock prices were predictable by some technical means, they would be quickly driven to unpredictability by people trading on those technical indicators.
- frankc 2y agoThis is that old finance chestnut. Two finance professors are walking down the hall and one of them spots a twenty dollar bill. He goes to pick it up but the other professor stops him and says "no don't bother. If there was twenty dollars there someone would have already picked it up" Yes, people arbitrage away these anomalies, and make billions doing it.
- icapybara 2y agoMy point was more that the arbitrage is not systematically predictable, not that the arbitrage doesn’t exist.
- amelius 2y agoAnd that would make the stock markets accessible to fewer people, further widening the wealth gap.
- belter 2y agoRentech does not seem to be able to predict the stock market for their customers... "Jim Simons' Renaissance Technologies suffers $11 billion of client withdrawals in 7 months" - https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/jim-simons-renaissance-technologies-rentech-suffer-11-billion-client-withdrawals-2021-6-1030539963 https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/jim-simons-r...
- Xcelerate 2y agoI’m referring to RenTech’s well known Medallion fund, which I believe is now only available internally to longtime employees. Even in the article you linked, it says this fund has “continued to shine”.
- belter 2y agoIf you think about it a little bit...And you read "Fooled By Randomness", there are 20 other tricks they could be playing here...Instead of "predicting" the market.
- amelius 2y agoMaybe that would be a good thing. I wouldn't mourn the destruction of the stock market as it's just a giant wealth-gap increasing casino. Trading has nothing to do with underlying value.
- pvorb 2y agoI fully agree. The stock market is just a giant machine that pulls money out of systems.
- itsoktocry 2y ago>The stock market is just a giant machine that pulls money out of systems. So you think the multi-trillion dollar stock market, consisting of thousands of global companies, has no use beyond "pulling money out of systems"? Weird.
- amelius 2y agohttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania Just to say, weirdness happens.