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Anyone buying a house with a mortgage generally is taking a 5:1 leverage (a 5% down loan is 20:1 leverage) position on the house. Making $100k on a $200k invest

Anyone buying a house with a mortgage generally is taking a 5:1 leverage (a 5% down loan is 20:1 leverage) position on the house. Making $100k on a $200k investment, with 5:1 leverage means making 100k on a 40k investment, which isn't a 50% return... it's a 250% return. And it's tax free, assuming it's your primary residence (up to 250k cap gains). You have to spend an obnoxious amount on costs to not have it make sense.

WalterBright 2y ago
Remember, leverage works both ways.
- Kirby64 2y ago
  Obviously. Which is why 20:1 leverage (5% down) is kind of foolish, since you can quickly become underwater on a house purchase if the value shifts. At 5:1 leverage though, you still maintain enough equity to weather any valuation swings if you have a need to leave and sell the house.
  - throwaway2037 2y ago
    This post is somewhat misleading. If you put 0% down (yes, it is possible in many places), effectively you have infinite leverage. But let's use your 5% example. If you house price falls by 50%, nothing happens to you -- even with huge negative equity. You keep making monthly payments. There is no "weathering" to be done. Sure, at the end, you might have a giant paper loss, but you still have a roof over your head -- that you own.
    - Kirby64 2y ago
      I agree mortgages cannot be called in, unlike margin trading on stocks, but if you’re wildly upside down on a house then it literally traps you in the house unless you take those losses. If housing prices fall 50% it is also likely that economic conditions may mean you cannot afford the same house anymore. In a situation of missed payment, they can certainly foreclose on your house.
temporarara 2y ago
While there is some "leverage" in mortgage, you actually need to pay the whole sum, and with interest too, so taking a $200k loan means you pay usually something like $250k for it in the end, and this means you have to make $50k profit to not lose. And houses age too. If the location is superb you can justify it as an investment, otherwise it's pure nonsense in every way. Thinking normal housing as an investment is one of those reasons why we can't have nice things.
- Kirby64 2y ago
  What do you think leverage means? If I take a leveraged position on a stock via margin trading and the stock goes to $0 (or, more realistically, it dips in value enough that I get a margin call) then I owe the whole balance, not just what I put up as capital. This is true of literally any leverage. And on top of that, I pay a margin rate in the form of an interest payment based on the amount of money I have outstanding beyond my capital. Sounds familiar, right? Because it's exactly identical. The only difference between a mortgage and a margin interest payment is that a mortage is amoritized across the term and is a fixed period, whereas margin interest is indefinite and acts more like a HELOC (i.e., you only pay interest on the amount that you have outstanding... and that amount can vary over time). I absolutely hate the idea that "paying X in interest means that's money you have to earn in addition to make it worthwhile". No, it's not. It's money you are paying to free up extra capital elsewhere that can be invested more efficiently. Unless you're spending well beyond your means (which, admittedly, some people do), then paying interest on a mortgage payment should mean making much much more elsewhere by investing money you would have spent on buying a house in cash.
  - temporarara 2y ago
    You HAVE to pay back your debt if you want to pocket all your profits. If your down payment is 25k and you buy 250k house, you need to borrow 225k for your "leverage". Now you get lucky and years later, AFTER you have paid 25k + 225k + interest + fees which amounts to at least 300k, prices have gone up and you can sell that house for 400k. Nice you think! I will make 375k profit just by investing 25k! NO, that's not how "leverage" works at all. At that point you have paid at least 300k to get 400k which makes not that great considering it's been 20 years or so. The logic you are using is flawed beyond all reasoning to be honest. People who are in a position to both pay back their mortgages AND invest heavily elsewhere are already rich.

WalterBright 2y ago

Remember, leverage works both ways.

Kirby64 2y ago
Obviously. Which is why 20:1 leverage (5% down) is kind of foolish, since you can quickly become underwater on a house purchase if the value shifts. At 5:1 leverage though, you still maintain enough equity to weather any valuation swings if you have a need to leave and sell the house.
- throwaway2037 2y ago
  This post is somewhat misleading. If you put 0% down (yes, it is possible in many places), effectively you have infinite leverage. But let's use your 5% example. If you house price falls by 50%, nothing happens to you -- even with huge negative equity. You keep making monthly payments. There is no "weathering" to be done. Sure, at the end, you might have a giant paper loss, but you still have a roof over your head -- that you own.
  - Kirby64 2y ago
    I agree mortgages cannot be called in, unlike margin trading on stocks, but if you’re wildly upside down on a house then it literally traps you in the house unless you take those losses. If housing prices fall 50% it is also likely that economic conditions may mean you cannot afford the same house anymore. In a situation of missed payment, they can certainly foreclose on your house.

temporarara 2y ago

While there is some "leverage" in mortgage, you actually need to pay the whole sum, and with interest too, so taking a $200k loan means you pay usually something like $250k for it in the end, and this means you have to make $50k profit to not lose. And houses age too. If the location is superb you can justify it as an investment, otherwise it's pure nonsense in every way. Thinking normal housing as an investment is one of those reasons why we can't have nice things.

Kirby64 2y ago
What do you think leverage means? If I take a leveraged position on a stock via margin trading and the stock goes to $0 (or, more realistically, it dips in value enough that I get a margin call) then I owe the whole balance, not just what I put up as capital. This is true of literally any leverage. And on top of that, I pay a margin rate in the form of an interest payment based on the amount of money I have outstanding beyond my capital. Sounds familiar, right? Because it's exactly identical. The only difference between a mortgage and a margin interest payment is that a mortage is amoritized across the term and is a fixed period, whereas margin interest is indefinite and acts more like a HELOC (i.e., you only pay interest on the amount that you have outstanding... and that amount can vary over time). I absolutely hate the idea that "paying X in interest means that's money you have to earn in addition to make it worthwhile". No, it's not. It's money you are paying to free up extra capital elsewhere that can be invested more efficiently. Unless you're spending well beyond your means (which, admittedly, some people do), then paying interest on a mortgage payment should mean making much much more elsewhere by investing money you would have spent on buying a house in cash.
- temporarara 2y ago
  You HAVE to pay back your debt if you want to pocket all your profits. If your down payment is 25k and you buy 250k house, you need to borrow 225k for your "leverage". Now you get lucky and years later, AFTER you have paid 25k + 225k + interest + fees which amounts to at least 300k, prices have gone up and you can sell that house for 400k. Nice you think! I will make 375k profit just by investing 25k! NO, that's not how "leverage" works at all. At that point you have paid at least 300k to get 400k which makes not that great considering it's been 20 years or so. The logic you are using is flawed beyond all reasoning to be honest. People who are in a position to both pay back their mortgages AND invest heavily elsewhere are already rich.