3 ms·
I am not a big gambler. But I wonder if these sort of calculations could be better in forecasting than prediction markets like intrade.com. Very interesting wo
by ralfd 14y ago
I am not a big gambler. But I wonder if these sort of calculations could be better in forecasting than prediction markets like intrade.com.
Very interesting work on the Eurovision at least! There are so many potential variables. Age, gender, BPM of the song, changes in the performance, political stuff. For example I don't expect any points for Azerbaijan from Germany, because the media reported very critically on the undemocratic regime. But don't know how this will play out in the rest of Europe. Are you American? This song contest and its history must be pretty strange for outsiders.
- mewo2 14y agoI'm Irish, so I'm fairly familiar with the contest's history. I do live in the USA now though. I am a bit skeptical about how effective politically motivated boycotts can be in Eurovision. The problem is that it's not possible to cast a vote against a country, so the only way a boycott can work is if it convinces a lot of people who were otherwise going to vote to abstain. That said, there has been quite a lot of coverage in at least the Western European media which has been very critical of Azerbaijan, so we'll see. It's also just possible that nobody will like their song - I'm not sure how we'd tell which had happened.
- ralfd 14y agoAh, damn, that was stupid! :-P At least it seems like Sweden is winning.