4 ms·
Word to the audience here, many of whom are in a similar position. Please just keep quiet about it. Not because that's the decent thing to do while other peopl
by tonymet 3y ago
Word to the audience here, many of whom are in a similar position. Please just keep quiet about it.
Not because that's the decent thing to do while other people are struggling, there's a technical reason I'll explain.
The Fed's inflation target is to stimulate "job growth". That is a euphemism for debasing money (via money supply expansion , aka QE & other tactics) so that people have to work harder.
What it also means is that people who may be comfortable managing life & responsibilities with partial work or early retirement are forced back into the workplace.
Sure it's great you have 7 figures of assets and are outside of the crashing wave. But the entire workforce & those at 1-1.5 Σ are running on a treadmill that's increasing in velocity.
the more you brag about having the money to retire, the more signals you send to the Fed and policy makers to keep cranking up the money supply treadmill to keep the pressure on working people.
- yunohn 3y ago> the more you brag about having the money to retire I’d like to believe that policies are (atleast partially) based on data, and not braggadocious tweets/blogs.
- tonymet 3y agoget into politics. the decisions are made via handshakes and sold using data
- wbl 3y agoDo you think tight money leads to people retiring early? I assure you, having been alive in 2008, it does not.
- tonymet 3y agoinverse vs converse
- testfoobar 3y agoYour advice is useful in a social context - friends and colleagues are all in different life circumstances. The Fed and other central banks can see aggregate asset values, productivity, and spending in the economy. Lots of money is being spent by the wealthy. 2024-Apr: "Airline executives predict a record summer and even more demand for first class" - https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/17/airline-execs-predict-record-summer-even-more-demand-for-first-class.html https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/17/airline-execs-predict-record...
- bryanlarsen 3y agoThe Fed stopped doing QE in June 2022 and has done $1.5 trillion worth of quantitative tightening since then.
- tonymet 3y agoand?
- rufus_foreman 3y agoHere's what their quantitative tightening looks like: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL# https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL#. They have a ways to go. And they just announced they would be slowing the pace of the quantitative tightening. What are the odds they get back to the pre-great recession trend line before the next crisis that demands quantitative easing? (Hint: the odds are zero).
- marcosdumay 3y agoIt's way more intense than what I expected to see. This is at the level where economies fail. Keeping inflation under control usually means turning it into a horizontal line.
- thr0waway001 3y ago> the more you brag about having the money to retire, .... I think every rapper out there didn't get the memo.
- tonymet 3y agoI don't knock rappers , that's how they sell their product
- comte7092 3y agoIf you think the Fed is trolling HN/Twitter to figure out how to set monetary policy for the entire country/realistically the whole world, you are living in la la land. The fed hasn’t done QE for years. I’ve seen literally any policy move they make characterized as some sort of conspiracy by the gold bugs on here. They are tightening the money supply right now and have been for some time.
- tonymet 3y agohave you seen the money supply graph. and predictions for the next year?
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- willcipriano 3y ago> keep the pressure on working people. The Boomers have sacrificed so much for us the least we could do is orient the entire economy around them for a few short decades they have left. Imagine if they had to sell their houses to pay for needed labor (higher wages) in old age and some young family (yuck) moved in? Better they reverse mortgage it so Blackrock can rent it out to that family after they die.
- tonymet 3y agodaily viagra is expensive have some sympathy.
- sabas123 3y ago> the more you brag about having the money to retire, the more signals you send to the Fed and policy makers to keep cranking up the money supply treadmill to keep the pressure on working people. I hope federal banks are smart enough to not base monetary policy of anecdotes
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- Eddy_Viscosity2 3y agoFederal banks don't make decisions, people who work at federal banks do. And people often do make decisions based on anecdotes. Especially if they already support an idea that were already in favor of. So, yeah.
- sevagh 3y agoLike Jerome Powell reads anonymous developer blogs to influence monetary policy? Come on, bruh?
- csomar 3y ago> the more you brag about having the money to retire, the more signals you send to the Fed and policy makers to keep cranking up the money supply treadmill to keep the pressure on working people. If the FED used these articles for its policy, I really don't see a way out of this.
- singleshot_ 3y agoTechnically, they’ll be using an LLM trained on these articles.
- tonymet 3y agoWarren Buffet famously used private underwear sales indicators as an economic bellwether . Billions of dollars moved because people were or were not buying underwear. Economists are extremely sensitive to consumer behavior. The abstract indicators like CPI, WFPR, M2/M3 etc are trailing indicators not leading indicators for them.
- GoodJokes 3y ago[dead]
- chrismcb 3y agoI'm pretty sure the Feds aren't going to ratchet up the heat just because a handful of people are retiring.
- tonymet 3y agoworkforce participation among meaningful segments is nearly 5% below the peak. "retirement" isn't just boomers taking vacations. Lack of participation is due to part time work, and borderline "disability", and a dozen other qualitative factors that are influenced by price pressure (taxes & cost of living) I live in an older community where people are forced back to work due to skyrocketing property taxes & cost of living increases. That is a deliberate measure